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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Groupon Inc.

Groupon Inc. (GRPN)

Technology

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 2,573.663,042.062,954.753,013.552,843.892,636.852,660.062,683.472,707.082,730.902,754.94
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 64.0857.80127.05-63.89159.54103.8971.2971.9272.5573.1973.83
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -25.48-57.19-2.36-199.8021.61-11.87-41.23-41.59-41.96-42.33-42.70
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 89.56114.99129.42135.91137.93115.76112.52113.51114.51115.52116.53
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 1,240.501,016.66853.33863.08880.18840.89895.38903.26911.20919.22927.31
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 83.6490.6568.2571.4298.4069.6175.2875.9476.6177.2877.96
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories -----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 780.59786.07800.74799.50802.26690.06727.79734.20740.66747.18753.75
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -65.11-83.66-81.85-68.41-59.15-69.61-66.77-67.36-67.95-68.55-69.15
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 2.79
Diluted Shares Outstanding 566.51
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 7.95
After-tax Cost of Debt -0.35
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 14.03
Total Debt 201.67
Total Equity 1,580.57
Total Capital 1,782.23
Debt Weighting 11.32
Equity Weighting 88.68
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 2,573.663,042.062,954.753,013.552,843.892,636.852,660.062,683.472,707.082,730.902,754.94
EBITDA 64.0857.80127.05-63.89159.54103.8971.2971.9272.5573.1973.83
EBIT -25.48-57.19-2.36-199.8021.61-11.87-41.23-41.59-41.96-42.33-42.70
Tax Rate -276.21%-27.41%982.49%2.66%34.95%7.95%120.74%120.74%120.74%120.74%120.74%
EBIAT -95.86-72.8720.86-194.4814.06-10.928.558.638.708.788.86
Depreciation 89.56114.99129.42135.91137.93115.76112.52113.51114.51115.52116.53
Accounts Receivable --7.0122.40-3.17-26.9828.79-5.67-0.66-0.67-0.67-0.68
Inventories -----------
Accounts Payable -5.4814.67-1.242.77-112.2037.736.406.466.526.58
Capital Expenditure -18.54-1.81-13.44-9.2510.46-2.850.590.590.600.60
UFCF -6.2959.14185.54-76.42118.5231.88150.29128.47129.60130.74131.89
WACC
PV UFCF 133.04100.6889.9180.3071.71
SUM PV UFCF 431.30

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 12.96
Free cash flow (t + 1) 137.16
Terminal Value 1,530.84
Present Value of Terminal Value 832.35

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 1,263.65
Net Debt -639.22
Equity Value 1,902.87
Shares Outstanding 566.51
Equity Value Per Share 3.36