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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Ferroglobe PLC

Ferroglobe PLC (GSM)

Basic Materials

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 1,417.081,316.611,576.111,741.762,274.042,579.222,925.353,317.933,763.204,268.22
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 199.24104.14-229.17154.49249.01140.57159.43180.83205.09232.62
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 124.4237.13-354.7849.99129.85-12.12-13.75-15.59-17.69-20.06
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 74.8267.02125.62104.51119.16152.69173.18196.42222.78252.68
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 48.61116.65200.95186.89219.22234.19265.62301.27341.70387.55
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 308.64286.23223.49118.44172.60371.92421.84478.45542.65615.48
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 439.01425.40316.64361.24457.08640.68726.66824.17934.781,060.23
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 176.14154.96188.50205.88267.88308.22349.58396.49449.70510.05
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure --63.07-71.08-74.55-106.20-117.61-133.40-151.30-171.60-194.63
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 0.72
Diluted Shares Outstanding 171.41
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 35.69
After-tax Cost of Debt -1.73
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 19.68
Total Debt 527.95
Total Equity 123.41
Total Capital 651.36
Debt Weighting 81.05
Equity Weighting 18.95
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 1,417.081,316.611,576.111,741.762,274.042,579.222,925.353,317.933,763.204,268.22
EBITDA 199.24104.14-229.17154.49249.01140.57159.43180.83205.09232.62
EBIT 124.4237.13-354.7849.99129.85-12.12-13.75-15.59-17.69-20.06
Tax Rate 60.00%748.31%12.12%95.63%35.69%190.35%190.35%190.35%190.35%190.35%
EBIAT 49.77-240.71-311.772.1983.5010.9512.4214.0915.9818.12
Depreciation 74.8267.02125.62104.51119.16152.69173.18196.42222.78252.68
Accounts Receivable -22.4162.74105.05-54.16-199.32-49.91-56.61-64.21-72.82
Inventories -13.61108.76-44.60-95.84-183.60-85.98-97.52-110.60-125.45
Accounts Payable --21.1833.5417.3762.0140.3341.3646.9153.2160.35
Capital Expenditure --8.023.4631.6511.4115.7817.9020.3023.03
UFCF 124.59-158.8426.90187.98146.31-167.53106.86121.20137.46155.91
WACC
PV UFCF -167.53100.50107.20114.35121.97
SUM PV UFCF -

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.33
Free cash flow (t + 1) 157.14
Terminal Value 6,744.19
Present Value of Terminal Value 4,961.93

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -
Net Debt 308.73
Equity Value -
Shares Outstanding 171.41
Equity Value Per Share -