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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Halcon Resources Corporation

Halcon Resources Corporation (HK)

Energy

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 999.511,148.23550.23420.16377.93226.61176.32137.20106.7583.0664.63
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -858.48994.94-1,316.43-1,316.44711.99262.30-57.06-44.40-34.55-26.88-20.92
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -948.73531.29-1,850.87-1,680.63601.78184.78-158.46-123.30-95.94-74.65-58.09
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 90.26463.66534.44364.19110.2077.52101.4078.9061.3947.7737.17
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 2.8059.8224.820.04424.0846.8650.2939.1330.4523.6918.43
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 337.23780.45539.12129.1637.08105.4489.2469.4454.0342.0432.71
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 5.204.714.62---1.110.860.670.520.41
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 636.59607.76295.0924.37131.10157.8676.4259.4646.2736.0028.01
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -2,071.48-1,083.24-669.03-290.29597.13-706.63-154.76-120.42-93.70-72.91-56.73
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 0.16
Diluted Shares Outstanding 157.29
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 67.58
After-tax Cost of Debt -3.33
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 32.31
Total Debt 613.11
Total Equity 25.17
Total Capital 638.27
Debt Weighting 96.06
Equity Weighting 3.94
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 999.511,148.23550.23420.16377.93226.61176.32137.20106.7583.0664.63
EBITDA -858.48994.94-1,316.43-1,316.44711.99262.30-57.06-44.40-34.55-26.88-20.92
EBIT -948.73531.29-1,850.87-1,680.63601.78184.78-158.46-123.30-95.94-74.65-58.09
Tax Rate 11.43%-0.34%-0.47%0.83%-0.94%67.58%13.01%13.01%13.01%13.01%13.01%
EBIAT -840.33533.10-1,859.66-1,666.64607.4559.91-137.84-107.25-83.45-64.94-50.53
Depreciation 90.26463.66534.44364.19110.2077.52101.4078.9061.3947.7737.17
Accounts Receivable --443.22241.34409.9692.08-68.3716.2019.8015.4111.999.33
Inventories -0.490.094.62---0.250.190.150.12
Accounts Payable --28.83-312.67-270.72106.7426.75-81.44-16.96-13.19-10.27-7.99
Capital Expenditure --988.23-414.21-378.74-887.421,303.76-551.87-34.34-26.72-20.79-16.18
UFCF -750.08-463.03-1,810.68-1,537.3329.051,399.58-653.54-59.60-46.38-36.09-28.08
WACC
PV UFCF -635.56-56.37-42.65-32.27-24.42
SUM PV UFCF -3,667.75

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 2.83
Free cash flow (t + 1) -29.20
Terminal Value 2,495.85
Present Value of Terminal Value 2,170.80

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -1,496.95
Net Debt 566.24
Equity Value -2,063.20
Shares Outstanding 157.29
Equity Value Per Share -13.12

Results Unlevered DCF

Wacc / Long-term Growth -4 (%)-3 (%)-2 (%)-1 (%)0 (%)1 (%)2 (%)3 (%)4 (%)
4.83 (%) -30.32 Sell -31.26 Sell -32.85 Sell -36.18 Sell -47.55 Sell 74.84 Buy -11.99 Sell -18.79 Sell -21.30 Sell
4.33 (%) -29.93 Sell -30.66 Sell -31.84 Sell -34.02 Sell -39.48 Sell -78.06 Sell -1.48 Sell -16.61 Sell -20.41 Sell
3.83 (%) -29.60 Sell -30.19 Sell -31.09 Sell -32.62 Sell -35.83 Sell -46.76 Sell 70.90 Buy -12.56 Sell -19.10 Sell
3.33 (%) -29.33 Sell -29.81 Sell -30.52 Sell -31.65 Sell -33.75 Sell -39.00 Sell -76.09 Sell -2.46 Sell -17.01 Sell
2.83 (%) -29.10 Sell -29.50 Sell -30.07 Sell -30.93 Sell -32.40 Sell -35.49 Sell -46.00 Sell 67.15 Buy -13.12 Sell
2.33 (%) -28.90 Sell -29.24 Sell -29.70 Sell -30.38 Sell -31.47 Sell -33.49 Sell -38.54 Sell -74.22 Sell -3.40 Sell
1.83 (%) -28.73 Sell -29.02 Sell -29.40 Sell -29.95 Sell -30.78 Sell -32.20 Sell -35.16 Sell -45.27 Sell 63.58 Buy
1.33 (%) -28.58 Sell -28.83 Sell -29.15 Sell -29.60 Sell -30.25 Sell -31.30 Sell -33.24 Sell -38.10 Sell -72.43 Sell
0.83 (%) -28.45 Sell -28.66 Sell -28.94 Sell -29.31 Sell -29.84 Sell -30.64 Sell -32.00 Sell -34.85 Sell -44.59 Sell