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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Halcon Resources Corporation

Halcon Resources Corporation (HK)

Energy

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 999.511,148.23550.23420.16377.93226.61176.32137.20106.7583.0664.63
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -858.48994.94-1,316.43-1,316.44711.99262.30-72.79-56.64-44.07-34.29-26.68
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -948.73531.29-1,850.87-1,680.63601.78184.78-159.94-124.45-96.84-75.35-58.63
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 90.26463.66534.44364.19110.2077.5287.1667.8252.7741.0631.95
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 2.8059.8224.820.04424.0846.8642.0032.6825.4319.7915.40
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 337.23780.45539.12129.1637.08105.4484.2865.5851.0339.7030.89
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 5.204.714.62---1.040.810.630.490.38
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 636.59607.76295.0924.37131.10157.8682.4064.1149.8938.8230.20
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -2,071.48-1,083.24-669.03-290.29597.13-706.63-189.87-147.73-114.95-89.44-69.60
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 0.16
Diluted Shares Outstanding 157.01
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 67.58
After-tax Cost of Debt -3.33
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 32.31
Total Debt 613.11
Total Equity 25.12
Total Capital 638.23
Debt Weighting 96.06
Equity Weighting 3.94
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 999.511,148.23550.23420.16377.93226.61176.32137.20106.7583.0664.63
EBITDA -858.48994.94-1,316.43-1,316.44711.99262.30-72.79-56.64-44.07-34.29-26.68
EBIT -948.73531.29-1,850.87-1,680.63601.78184.78-159.94-124.45-96.84-75.35-58.63
Tax Rate 11.43%-0.34%-0.47%0.83%-0.94%67.58%13.01%13.01%13.01%13.01%13.01%
EBIAT -840.33533.10-1,859.66-1,666.64607.4559.91-139.13-108.26-84.23-65.54-51.00
Depreciation 90.26463.66534.44364.19110.2077.5287.1667.8252.7741.0631.95
Accounts Receivable --443.22241.34409.9692.08-68.3721.1618.7014.5511.328.81
Inventories -0.490.094.62---0.230.180.140.11
Accounts Payable --28.83-312.67-270.72106.7426.75-75.46-18.28-14.23-11.07-8.61
Capital Expenditure --988.23-414.21-378.74-887.421,303.76-516.77-42.13-32.78-25.51-19.85
UFCF -750.08-463.03-1,810.68-1,537.3329.051,399.58-623.04-81.92-63.74-49.60-38.59
WACC
PV UFCF -605.89-77.47-58.62-44.36-33.57
SUM PV UFCF -3,691.98

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 2.83
Free cash flow (t + 1) -40.14
Terminal Value 3,430.48
Present Value of Terminal Value 2,983.70

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -708.28
Net Debt 566.24
Equity Value -1,274.52
Shares Outstanding 157.01
Equity Value Per Share -8.12