Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Intuitive Surgical Inc. (ISRG)
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Projected | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected |
Revenue | 2,265.10 | 2,131.69 | 2,384.29 | 2,706.41 | 3,138.08 | 3,723.96 | 4,126.89 | 4,573.42 | 5,068.27 | 5,616.65 | 6,224.37 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | |||||||||||
EBITDA | 938.20 | 623.30 | 848.09 | 1,077.42 | 1,203.77 | 1,405.05 | 1,527.78 | 1,693.08 | 1,876.27 | 2,079.28 | 2,304.26 |
EBITDA (%) | |||||||||||
EBIT | 870.93 | 548.91 | 758.68 | 985.40 | 1,104.60 | 1,282.16 | 1,389.52 | 1,539.87 | 1,706.49 | 1,891.13 | 2,095.75 |
EBIT (%) | |||||||||||
Depreciation | 67.27 | 74.40 | 89.41 | 92.02 | 99.16 | 122.89 | 138.25 | 153.21 | 169.79 | 188.16 | 208.52 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Projected | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected |
Total Cash | 1,403.46 | 1,232.54 | 1,559.80 | 2,554.58 | 1,960.67 | 3,062.96 | 2,918.54 | 3,234.32 | 3,584.28 | 3,972.10 | 4,401.88 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | |||||||||||
Account Receivables | 301.48 | 315.06 | 394.36 | 430.32 | 508.06 | 682.23 | 653.70 | 724.43 | 802.81 | 889.68 | 985.94 |
Account Receivables (%) | |||||||||||
Inventories | 179.62 | 181.62 | 167.85 | 182.41 | 241.32 | 408.89 | 336.34 | 372.73 | 413.06 | 457.76 | 507.29 |
Inventories (%) | |||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 46.21 | 61.61 | 52.69 | 68.47 | 82.53 | 100.55 | 103.17 | 114.34 | 126.71 | 140.42 | 155.61 |
Accounts Payable (%) | |||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -104.65 | -105.52 | -81.07 | -53.86 | -190.80 | -187.32 | -179.11 | -198.49 | -219.96 | -243.76 | -270.14 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 580.68 |
---|---|
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 113.70 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 12.05 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | -0.55 |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 11.19 |
Total Debt | - |
Total Equity | 66,023.32 |
Total Capital | 66,023.32 |
Debt Weighting | 0.00 |
Equity Weighting | 100.00 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Projected | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected |
Revenue | 2,265.10 | 2,131.69 | 2,384.29 | 2,706.41 | 3,138.08 | 3,723.96 | 4,126.89 | 4,573.42 | 5,068.27 | 5,616.65 | 6,224.37 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 938.20 | 623.30 | 848.09 | 1,077.42 | 1,203.77 | 1,405.05 | 1,527.78 | 1,693.08 | 1,876.27 | 2,079.28 | 2,304.26 |
EBIT | 870.93 | 548.91 | 758.68 | 985.40 | 1,104.60 | 1,282.16 | 1,389.52 | 1,539.87 | 1,706.49 | 1,891.13 | 2,095.75 |
Tax Rate | 22.95% | 23.72% | 22.37% | 25.07% | 39.27% | 12.05% | 24.24% | 24.24% | 24.24% | 24.24% | 24.24% |
EBIAT | 671.02 | 418.73 | 588.94 | 738.38 | 670.78 | 1,127.69 | 1,052.72 | 1,166.63 | 1,292.85 | 1,432.74 | 1,587.76 |
Depreciation | 67.27 | 74.40 | 89.41 | 92.02 | 99.16 | 122.89 | 138.25 | 153.21 | 169.79 | 188.16 | 208.52 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -13.58 | -79.30 | -35.96 | -77.74 | -174.17 | 28.53 | -70.73 | -78.38 | -86.86 | -96.26 |
Inventories | - | -2.00 | 13.77 | -14.56 | -58.91 | -167.57 | 72.55 | -36.39 | -40.33 | -44.69 | -49.53 |
Accounts Payable | - | 15.40 | -8.91 | 15.78 | 14.06 | 18.02 | 2.63 | 11.16 | 12.37 | 13.71 | 15.19 |
Capital Expenditure | - | 0.87 | -24.45 | -27.21 | 136.94 | -3.48 | -8.21 | 19.38 | 21.48 | 23.80 | 26.38 |
UFCF | 738.30 | 493.82 | 579.45 | 768.45 | 784.30 | 923.37 | 1,286.47 | 1,243.26 | 1,377.78 | 1,526.85 | 1,692.06 |
WACC | |||||||||||
PV UFCF | 1,157.00 | 1,005.61 | 1,002.26 | 998.93 | 995.60 | ||||||
SUM PV UFCF | 5,668.07 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 11.19 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 1,759.74 |
Terminal Value | 24,474.80 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 14,400.93 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 20,069.00 |
---|---|
Net Debt | -3,062.96 |
Equity Value | 23,131.96 |
Shares Outstanding | 113.70 |
Equity Value Per Share | 203.45 |