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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Jagged Peak Energy Inc.

Jagged Peak Energy Inc. (JAG)

Energy

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 33.8576.52267.32581.661,537.454,063.7810,741.3828,391.6275,044.72
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 22.8843.0495.41479.46930.002,458.186,497.4617,174.0945,394.55
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 0.202.62-15.64257.09162.82430.351,137.513,006.677,947.24
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 22.6840.42111.04222.37767.192,027.835,359.9514,167.4237,447.32
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 14.1711.729.52138.32324.86858.682,269.655,999.1515,856.95
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 8.0110.3350.7461.19256.14677.031,789.514,730.0412,502.45
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories ---------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 2.457.630.3734.7889.63236.92626.221,655.234,375.11
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -110.23-195.43-600.03-733.24-3,580.41-9,463.73-25,014.53-66,118.40-174,764.16
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 6.49
Diluted Shares Outstanding 213.20
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 28.66
After-tax Cost of Debt -1.38
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.85
Total Debt 500.40
Total Equity 1,383.69
Total Capital 1,884.09
Debt Weighting 26.56
Equity Weighting 73.44
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 33.8576.52267.32581.661,537.454,063.7810,741.3828,391.6275,044.72
EBITDA 22.8843.0495.41479.46930.002,458.186,497.4617,174.0945,394.55
EBIT 0.202.62-15.64257.09162.82430.351,137.513,006.677,947.24
Tax Rate ---312.95%28.66%-----
EBIAT ---64.58183.41-----
Depreciation 22.6840.42111.04222.37767.192,027.835,359.9514,167.4237,447.32
Accounts Receivable --2.32-40.41-10.45-194.95-420.89-1,112.49-2,940.53-7,772.41
Inventories ---------
Accounts Payable -5.18-7.2634.4154.85147.29389.301,029.012,719.88
Capital Expenditure -85.19404.60133.222,847.165,883.3215,550.8041,103.87108,645.76
UFCF --403.40562.95-----
WACC
PV UFCF -----
SUM PV UFCF -

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.18
Free cash flow (t + 1) -
Terminal Value -
Present Value of Terminal Value -

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -
Net Debt 362.08
Equity Value -
Shares Outstanding 213.20
Equity Value Per Share -