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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


JD.com Inc.

JD.com Inc. (JD)

Technology

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 11,430.9018,567.2027,891.6537,190.7354,767.0766,865.1295,663.92136,866.37195,814.72280,152.11400,813.63
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 41.15-532.88-1,006.8955.79777.69628.53-573.98-821.20-1,174.89-1,680.91-2,404.88
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -6.86-800.25-1,391.79-435.13142.39-173.85-1,674.12-2,395.16-3,426.76-4,902.66-7,014.24
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 48.01267.37384.90490.92635.30802.381,100.141,573.962,251.873,221.754,609.36
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 2,407.355,204.394,074.974,094.706,577.536,118.1615,287.0921,871.2531,291.1944,768.3164,050.02
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 209.19610.861,536.833,942.224,452.562,407.145,251.957,513.9610,750.2315,380.3522,004.67
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1,052.791,968.123,165.704,161.646,303.696,372.2510,102.1114,453.0920,678.0329,584.0642,325.92
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 1,816.372,694.104,610.496,649.7011,243.6811,607.7816,377.6623,431.5233,523.4847,962.0468,619.29
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -211.47-466.04-772.60-602.49-1,714.21-3,075.80-2,630.76-3,763.83-5,384.90-7,704.18-11,022.37
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 32.65
Diluted Shares Outstanding 416.48
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -20.67
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.08
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 12.95
Total Debt 1,429.03
Total Equity 13,598.19
Total Capital 15,027.22
Debt Weighting 9.51
Equity Weighting 90.49
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 11,430.9018,567.2027,891.6537,190.7354,767.0766,865.1295,663.92136,866.37195,814.72280,152.11400,813.63
EBITDA 41.15-532.88-1,006.8955.79777.69628.53-573.98-821.20-1,174.89-1,680.91-2,404.88
EBIT -6.86-800.25-1,391.79-435.13142.39-173.85-1,674.12-2,395.16-3,426.76-4,902.66-7,014.24
Tax Rate 0.08%-0.39%0.16%-4.57%-1,102.28%-20.67%-187.95%-187.95%-187.95%-187.95%-187.95%
EBIAT -6.85-803.35-1,389.56-455.021,711.98-209.79-4,820.55-6,896.77-9,867.20-14,117.01-20,197.20
Depreciation 48.01267.37384.90490.92635.30802.381,100.141,573.962,251.873,221.754,609.36
Accounts Receivable --401.68-925.97-2,405.39-510.352,045.42-2,844.81-2,262.01-3,236.26-4,630.12-6,624.32
Inventories --915.34-1,197.58-995.94-2,142.05-68.56-3,729.86-4,350.98-6,224.95-8,906.03-12,741.86
Accounts Payable -877.731,916.392,039.214,593.98364.104,769.887,053.8610,091.9614,438.5620,657.25
Capital Expenditure -254.57306.56-170.111,111.721,361.59-445.041,133.071,621.082,319.283,318.19
UFCF 41.16-720.70-905.25-1,496.335,400.584,295.14-5,970.25-3,748.87-5,363.51-7,673.57-10,978.58
WACC
PV UFCF -5,316.34-2,972.63-3,787.12-4,824.79-6,146.77
SUM PV UFCF -8,440.45

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 12.30
Free cash flow (t + 1) -11,417.72
Terminal Value -137,562.87
Present Value of Terminal Value -77,019.81

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -85,460.26
Net Debt -4,689.13
Equity Value -80,771.13
Shares Outstanding 416.48
Equity Value Per Share -193.94