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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


JP Morgan Chase & Co.

JP Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM)

Financial Services

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 97,367.0095,108.0993,538.8096,560.11100,692.88109,020.18111,593.06114,226.65116,922.40119,681.77122,506.26
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 30,651.1333,791.9033,851.6938,112.2740,206.6746,791.4641,947.8342,937.8043,951.1344,988.3846,050.10
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 25,344.6329,036.5028,912.8432,637.3234,024.1238,996.5235,497.7536,335.5037,193.0238,070.7738,969.24
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 5,306.504,755.404,938.855,474.966,182.547,794.946,450.086,602.306,758.116,917.617,080.86
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash --912,695.51985,405.53629,461.39600,374.13884,955.25905,840.19927,218.02949,100.36971,499.13
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 65,158.0070,075.6446,601.0352,325.9267,726.0373,196.1570,493.3372,156.9873,859.8875,602.9777,387.20
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories -----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 194,490.58206,936.17177,639.54190,542.06189,383.16196,705.11218,175.58223,324.53228,594.98233,989.83239,511.99
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -----------
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 107.59
Diluted Shares Outstanding 3,414.00
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 21.26
After-tax Cost of Debt -1.01
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.45
Total Debt 270,707.00
Total Equity 367,312.26
Total Capital 638,019.26
Debt Weighting 42.43
Equity Weighting 57.57
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 97,367.0095,108.0993,538.8096,560.11100,692.88109,020.18111,593.06114,226.65116,922.40119,681.77122,506.26
EBITDA 30,651.1333,791.9033,851.6938,112.2740,206.6746,791.4641,947.8342,937.8043,951.1344,988.3846,050.10
EBIT 25,344.6329,036.5028,912.8432,637.3234,024.1238,996.5235,497.7536,335.5037,193.0238,070.7738,969.24
Tax Rate 34.68%30.84%21.65%30.04%33.68%21.26%28.69%28.69%28.69%28.69%28.69%
EBIAT 16,556.1120,080.8022,652.4422,834.2222,565.7630,707.0525,313.3125,910.7126,522.2027,148.1227,788.82
Depreciation 5,306.504,755.404,938.855,474.966,182.547,794.946,450.086,602.306,758.116,917.617,080.86
Accounts Receivable --4,917.6423,474.61-5,724.89-15,400.11-5,470.122,702.82-1,663.64-1,702.90-1,743.09-1,784.23
Inventories -----------
Accounts Payable -12,445.59-29,296.6312,902.52-1,158.897,321.9421,470.475,148.945,270.465,394.845,522.16
Capital Expenditure -----------
UFCF 21,862.6132,364.1621,769.2735,486.8112,189.3040,353.8155,936.6835,998.3136,847.8737,717.4838,607.61
WACC
PV UFCF 51,668.8430,714.6829,040.7827,458.1125,961.68
SUM PV UFCF 226,453.60

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.26
Free cash flow (t + 1) 40,151.92
Terminal Value 942,533.25
Present Value of Terminal Value 633,806.32

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 860,259.92
Net Debt -329,667.13
Equity Value 1,189,927.05
Shares Outstanding 3,414.00
Equity Value Per Share 348.54

Results Unlevered DCF

Wacc / Long-term Growth -4 (%)-3 (%)-2 (%)-1 (%)0 (%)1 (%)2 (%)3 (%)4 (%)
10.26 (%) 241.00 Buy 250.34 Buy 261.93 Buy 276.72 Buy 296.24 Buy 323.18 Buy 362.77 Buy 426.64 Buy 547.03 Buy
9.76 (%) 235.64 Buy 243.93 Buy 254.11 Buy 266.92 Buy 283.51 Buy 305.87 Buy 337.62 Buy 386.26 Buy 470.14 Buy
9.26 (%) 230.81 Buy 238.20 Buy 247.20 Buy 258.37 Buy 272.61 Buy 291.41 Buy 317.36 Buy 355.49 Buy 417.01 Buy
8.76 (%) 226.43 Buy 233.05 Buy 241.04 Buy 250.85 Buy 263.18 Buy 279.17 Buy 300.71 Buy 331.30 Buy 378.16 Buy
8.26 (%) 222.44 Buy 228.40 Buy 235.53 Buy 244.19 Buy 254.96 Buy 268.69 Buy 286.80 Buy 311.80 Buy 348.54 Buy
7.76 (%) 218.80 Buy 224.19 Buy 230.58 Buy 238.27 Buy 247.73 Buy 259.62 Buy 275.02 Buy 295.78 Buy 325.26 Buy
7.26 (%) 215.48 Buy 220.36 Buy 226.10 Buy 232.97 Buy 241.33 Buy 251.70 Buy 264.93 Buy 282.39 Buy 306.49 Buy
6.76 (%) 212.42 Buy 216.86 Buy 222.05 Buy 228.21 Buy 235.63 Buy 244.74 Buy 256.20 Buy 271.06 Buy 291.07 Buy
6.26 (%) 209.61 Buy 213.66 Buy 218.36 Buy 223.91 Buy 230.53 Buy 238.58 Buy 248.59 Buy 261.35 Buy 278.18 Buy