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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


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KB Home (KBH)

Consumer Cyclical

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 2,097.132,401.003,031.993,594.734,368.674,547.355,319.946,223.807,281.228,518.309,965.56
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 102.97128.21152.21158.89299.25370.61307.49359.74420.85492.36576.01
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 101.08125.81148.87155.29296.63367.88302.70354.13414.30484.69567.04
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 1.892.403.343.592.622.734.795.606.557.678.97
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash --1,127.291,184.10720.83574.331,319.881,544.121,806.472,113.392,472.46
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 75.71125.57248.02231.50244.21292.85314.94368.45431.05504.28589.96
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 2,298.663,218.313,313.663,403.133,263.403,582.865,329.526,235.007,294.338,533.649,983.50
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 148.27172.63183.74215.32213.63257.83327.18382.76447.80523.88612.88
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -2.31-5.76-4.55-4.67-8.30-7.28-8.51-9.96-11.65-13.63-15.94
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 34.22
Diluted Shares Outstanding 87.77
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 53.70
After-tax Cost of Debt -2.64
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 14.95
Total Debt 1,390.00
Total Equity 3,003.59
Total Capital 4,393.59
Debt Weighting 31.64
Equity Weighting 68.36
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 2,097.132,401.003,031.993,594.734,368.674,547.355,319.946,223.807,281.228,518.309,965.56
EBITDA 102.97128.21152.21158.89299.25370.61307.49359.74420.85492.36576.01
EBIT 101.08125.81148.87155.29296.63367.88302.70354.13414.30484.69567.04
Tax Rate -4.17%-867.20%33.37%29.27%37.72%53.70%-119.55%-119.55%-119.55%-119.55%-119.55%
EBIAT 105.301,216.8699.19109.84184.73170.33664.59777.51909.601,064.151,244.94
Depreciation 1.892.403.343.592.622.734.795.606.557.678.97
Accounts Receivable --49.87-122.4416.52-12.71-48.64-22.09-53.51-62.60-73.24-85.68
Inventories --919.64-95.35-89.47139.73-319.46-1,746.66-905.49-1,059.33-1,239.31-1,449.86
Accounts Payable -24.3711.1131.59-1.7044.2169.3455.5965.0376.0889.01
Capital Expenditure -3.46-1.210.133.63-1.021.241.451.691.982.32
UFCF 107.18277.58-105.3972.20316.30-151.86-1,028.80-118.85-139.05-162.67-190.31
WACC
PV UFCF -927.26-96.55-101.81-107.35-113.19
SUM PV UFCF -322.36

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 10.95
Free cash flow (t + 1) -197.92
Terminal Value -2,847.78
Present Value of Terminal Value -1,693.83

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -2,016.19
Net Debt 815.67
Equity Value -2,831.86
Shares Outstanding 87.77
Equity Value Per Share -32.26