Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
KB Home (KBH)
Consumer Cyclical
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Projected | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected |
| Revenue | 2,097.13 | 2,401.00 | 3,031.99 | 3,594.73 | 4,368.67 | 4,547.35 | 5,319.94 | 6,223.80 | 7,281.22 | 8,518.30 | 9,965.56 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | |||||||||||
| EBITDA | 102.97 | 128.21 | 152.21 | 158.89 | 299.25 | 370.61 | 307.49 | 359.74 | 420.85 | 492.36 | 576.01 |
| EBITDA (%) | |||||||||||
| EBIT | 101.08 | 125.81 | 148.87 | 155.29 | 296.63 | 367.88 | 302.70 | 354.13 | 414.30 | 484.69 | 567.04 |
| EBIT (%) | |||||||||||
| Depreciation | 1.89 | 2.40 | 3.34 | 3.59 | 2.62 | 2.73 | 4.79 | 5.60 | 6.55 | 7.67 | 8.97 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Projected | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected |
| Total Cash | - | - | 568.50 | 592.05 | 720.83 | 574.33 | 855.98 | 1,001.41 | 1,171.55 | 1,370.60 | 1,603.46 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | |||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 75.71 | 125.57 | 248.02 | 231.50 | 244.21 | 292.85 | 314.94 | 368.45 | 431.05 | 504.28 | 589.96 |
| Account Receivables (%) | |||||||||||
| Inventories | 2,298.66 | 3,218.31 | 3,313.66 | 3,403.13 | 3,263.40 | 3,582.86 | 5,329.52 | 6,235.00 | 7,294.33 | 8,533.64 | 9,983.50 |
| Inventories (%) | |||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 148.27 | 172.63 | 183.74 | 215.32 | 213.63 | 257.83 | 327.18 | 382.76 | 447.80 | 523.88 | 612.88 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | |||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -2.31 | -5.76 | -4.55 | -4.67 | -8.30 | -7.28 | -8.51 | -9.96 | -11.65 | -13.63 | -15.94 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 28.02 |
|---|---|
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 101.06 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 53.70 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | -2.64 |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 14.95 |
| Total Debt | 1,430.99 |
| Total Equity | 2,831.67 |
| Total Capital | 4,262.67 |
| Debt Weighting | 33.57 |
| Equity Weighting | 66.43 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Projected | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected |
| Revenue | 2,097.13 | 2,401.00 | 3,031.99 | 3,594.73 | 4,368.67 | 4,547.35 | 5,319.94 | 6,223.80 | 7,281.22 | 8,518.30 | 9,965.56 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 102.97 | 128.21 | 152.21 | 158.89 | 299.25 | 370.61 | 307.49 | 359.74 | 420.85 | 492.36 | 576.01 |
| EBIT | 101.08 | 125.81 | 148.87 | 155.29 | 296.63 | 367.88 | 302.70 | 354.13 | 414.30 | 484.69 | 567.04 |
| Tax Rate | -4.17% | -867.20% | 33.37% | 29.27% | 37.72% | 53.70% | -119.55% | -119.55% | -119.55% | -119.55% | -119.55% |
| EBIAT | 105.30 | 1,216.86 | 99.19 | 109.84 | 184.73 | 170.33 | 664.59 | 777.51 | 909.60 | 1,064.15 | 1,244.94 |
| Depreciation | 1.89 | 2.40 | 3.34 | 3.59 | 2.62 | 2.73 | 4.79 | 5.60 | 6.55 | 7.67 | 8.97 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -49.87 | -122.44 | 16.52 | -12.71 | -48.64 | -22.09 | -53.51 | -62.60 | -73.24 | -85.68 |
| Inventories | - | -919.64 | -95.35 | -89.47 | 139.73 | -319.46 | -1,746.66 | -905.49 | -1,059.33 | -1,239.31 | -1,449.86 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 24.37 | 11.11 | 31.59 | -1.70 | 44.21 | 69.34 | 55.59 | 65.03 | 76.08 | 89.01 |
| Capital Expenditure | - | 3.46 | -1.21 | 0.13 | 3.63 | -1.02 | 1.24 | 1.45 | 1.69 | 1.98 | 2.32 |
| UFCF | 107.18 | 277.58 | -105.39 | 72.20 | 316.30 | -151.86 | -1,028.80 | -118.85 | -139.05 | -162.67 | -190.31 |
| WACC | |||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -929.27 | -96.97 | -102.47 | -108.28 | -114.43 | ||||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -332.57 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 10.71 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -197.92 |
| Terminal Value | -2,949.64 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -1,773.51 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -2,106.08 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 856.66 |
| Equity Value | -2,962.75 |
| Shares Outstanding | 101.06 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -29.32 |