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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


KeyCorp

KeyCorp (KEY)

Financial Services

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 3,953.004,032.854,061.894,723.976,025.906,177.756,784.417,450.648,182.298,985.799,868.20
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 1,402.131,471.991,465.941,283.982,339.862,592.192,442.392,682.232,945.633,234.893,552.55
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 1,181.161,225.991,218.97969.831,933.112,210.402,019.722,218.062,435.872,675.072,937.76
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 220.97246.00246.96314.14406.75381.79422.67464.17509.76559.81614.79
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash --608.06679.78671.29677.70873.15958.901,053.061,156.471,270.04
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables -----------
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories -----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable -----------
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -92.10-95.98-73.93-145.03-112.08-96.99-147.22-161.68-177.56-194.99-214.14
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 19.4
Diluted Shares Outstanding 1,040.89
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 15.57
After-tax Cost of Debt -0.73
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 12.15
Total Debt 13,732.00
Total Equity 20,193.27
Total Capital 33,925.27
Debt Weighting 40.48
Equity Weighting 59.52
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 3,953.004,032.854,061.894,723.976,025.906,177.756,784.417,450.648,182.298,985.799,868.20
EBITDA 1,402.131,471.991,465.941,283.982,339.862,592.192,442.392,682.232,945.633,234.893,552.55
EBIT 1,181.161,225.991,218.97969.831,933.112,210.402,019.722,218.062,435.872,675.072,937.76
Tax Rate 22.95%26.59%24.86%18.45%32.95%15.57%23.56%23.56%23.56%23.56%23.56%
EBIAT 910.12899.99915.98790.861,296.071,866.341,543.851,695.461,861.952,044.792,245.59
Depreciation 220.97246.00246.96314.14406.75381.79422.67464.17509.76559.81614.79
Accounts Receivable -----------
Inventories -----------
Accounts Payable -----------
Capital Expenditure -3.88-22.0671.10-32.94-15.0950.2314.4615.8817.4419.15
UFCF 1,131.091,149.871,140.891,176.111,669.882,233.032,016.752,174.092,387.582,622.042,879.53
WACC
PV UFCF 1,851.251,831.901,846.701,861.621,876.66
SUM PV UFCF 11,693.37

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.94
Free cash flow (t + 1) 2,994.71
Terminal Value 60,621.67
Present Value of Terminal Value 39,508.55

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 51,201.91
Net Debt 13,054.30
Equity Value 38,147.61
Shares Outstanding 1,040.89
Equity Value Per Share 36.65