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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Kinross Gold Corporation

Kinross Gold Corporation (KGC)

Basic Materials

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 3,779.503,466.183,051.973,471.623,302.553,212.063,121.483,033.452,947.912,864.782,783.99
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -2,797.96-183.36141.00930.051,356.36986.74124.23120.73117.33114.02110.80
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -3,626.81-1,058.22-756.5874.99536.99214.24-656.45-637.94-619.95-602.46-585.47
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 828.84874.86897.58855.06819.36772.50780.68758.67737.27716.48696.28
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 793.321,024.951,054.46838.741,037.99361.68790.67768.37746.71725.65705.19
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 208.25170.54108.34127.4191.15101.50122.67119.21115.85112.59109.41
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1,322.831,276.591,005.32986.631,094.461,051.951,035.711,006.50978.12950.53923.73
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 544.63421.83379.67464.85482.50465.75424.21412.25400.62389.32378.34
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -1,256.31-601.38-606.73-624.54-889.05-1,036.85-768.20-746.53-725.48-705.02-685.14
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 4.35
Diluted Shares Outstanding 1,249.50
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 122.61
After-tax Cost of Debt -6.08
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 1.71
Total Debt 1,735.00
Total Equity 5,435.32
Total Capital 7,170.32
Debt Weighting 24.20
Equity Weighting 75.80
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 3,779.503,466.183,051.973,471.623,302.553,212.063,121.483,033.452,947.912,864.782,783.99
EBITDA -2,797.96-183.36141.00930.051,356.36986.74124.23120.73117.33114.02110.80
EBIT -3,626.81-1,058.22-756.5874.99536.99214.24-656.45-637.94-619.95-602.46-585.47
Tax Rate -1.97%-9.64%-16.62%-83.36%-5.54%122.61%0.91%0.91%0.91%0.91%0.91%
EBIAT -3,698.37-1,160.23-882.33137.50566.73-48.45-650.45-632.10-614.28-596.96-580.12
Depreciation 828.84874.86897.58855.06819.36772.50780.68758.67737.27716.48696.28
Accounts Receivable -37.7162.19-19.0636.26-10.35-21.173.463.363.273.17
Inventories -46.23271.2718.69-107.8342.5216.2429.2128.3827.5826.81
Accounts Payable --122.79-42.1785.1817.65-16.75-41.54-11.96-11.63-11.30-10.98
Capital Expenditure --654.925.3517.81264.50147.81-268.66-21.66-21.05-20.46-19.88
UFCF -2,869.52-979.13311.911,095.181,596.67887.27-184.89125.60122.06118.62115.27
WACC
PV UFCF -183.02123.08118.40113.90109.57
SUM PV UFCF 171.96

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 1.02
Free cash flow (t + 1) 119.89
Terminal Value -4,023.00
Present Value of Terminal Value -3,823.96

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -3,652.00
Net Debt 1,373.32
Equity Value -5,025.32
Shares Outstanding 1,249.50
Equity Value Per Share -4.02