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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc.

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. (KNX)

Industrials

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 4,118.194,298.571,182.971,118.022,425.445,343.977,093.589,416.0212,498.8216,590.9422,022.81
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 598.79568.70296.81268.55408.441,011.081,331.461,767.392,346.033,114.124,133.68
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 355.81330.56185.73152.39201.31580.89766.111,016.931,349.871,791.822,378.46
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 242.97238.14111.08116.16207.13430.19565.36750.46996.161,322.301,755.22
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 142.90184.41195.908.61172.45146.96412.85548.01727.43965.591,281.73
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 418.82479.29422.44142.21574.34601.201,237.831,643.102,181.042,895.123,842.98
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 18.5318.9118.45---58.1777.21102.49136.05180.59
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 118.19160.34121.8518.22119.82118.10303.61403.01534.95710.09942.58
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -198.91-172.80-149.41-88.99-304.39-530.12-613.59-814.49-1,081.15-1,435.12-1,904.97
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 35.68
Diluted Shares Outstanding 177.02
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 23.86
After-tax Cost of Debt -1.14
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 17.76
Total Debt 870.44
Total Equity 6,316.00
Total Capital 7,186.45
Debt Weighting 12.11
Equity Weighting 87.89
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 4,118.194,298.571,182.971,118.022,425.445,343.977,093.589,416.0212,498.8216,590.9422,022.81
EBITDA 598.79568.70296.81268.55408.441,011.081,331.461,767.392,346.033,114.124,133.68
EBIT 355.81330.56185.73152.39201.31580.89766.111,016.931,349.871,791.822,378.46
Tax Rate 39.38%35.70%36.83%38.03%-151.48%23.86%3.72%3.72%3.72%3.72%3.72%
EBIAT 215.68212.55117.3294.44506.26442.29737.61979.101,299.661,725.172,289.99
Depreciation 242.97238.14111.08116.16207.13430.19565.36750.46996.161,322.301,755.22
Accounts Receivable --60.4756.85280.23-432.13-26.85-636.63-405.27-537.95-714.07-947.86
Inventories --0.380.4618.45----19.04-25.28-33.56-44.54
Accounts Payable -42.14-38.49-103.62101.59-1.71185.5099.40131.94175.14232.48
Capital Expenditure --26.11-23.39-60.41215.40225.7383.47200.89266.66353.97469.86
UFCF 458.65405.88223.83345.25598.251,069.64935.311,605.542,131.202,828.953,755.15
WACC
PV UFCF 805.821,191.741,362.901,558.641,782.49
SUM PV UFCF 4,491.87

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 16.07
Free cash flow (t + 1) 3,905.35
Terminal Value 32,355.86
Present Value of Terminal Value 15,358.65

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 19,850.52
Net Debt 723.48
Equity Value 19,127.03
Shares Outstanding 177.02
Equity Value Per Share 108.05