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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc.

Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. (KNX)

Industrials

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 4,118.194,298.571,182.971,118.022,425.445,343.977,093.589,416.0212,498.8216,590.9422,022.81
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 598.79568.70296.81268.55408.441,011.081,331.461,767.392,346.033,114.124,133.68
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 355.81330.56185.73152.39201.31580.89766.111,016.931,349.871,791.822,378.46
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 242.97238.14111.08116.16207.13430.19565.36750.46996.161,322.301,755.22
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 142.90184.41195.908.61172.45146.96412.85548.01727.43965.591,281.73
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 418.82479.29422.44142.21574.34616.691,240.671,646.862,186.042,901.753,851.79
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 18.5318.9118.45---58.1777.21102.49136.05180.59
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 118.19160.34121.8518.22119.82118.10303.61403.01534.95710.09942.58
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -198.91-172.80-149.41-88.99-304.39-530.12-613.59-814.49-1,081.15-1,435.12-1,904.97
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 32.18
Diluted Shares Outstanding 178.00
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 23.86
After-tax Cost of Debt -1.14
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 17.76
Total Debt 870.44
Total Equity 5,728.01
Total Capital 6,598.45
Debt Weighting 13.19
Equity Weighting 86.81
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 4,118.194,298.571,182.971,118.022,425.445,343.977,093.589,416.0212,498.8216,590.9422,022.81
EBITDA 598.79568.70296.81268.55408.441,011.081,331.461,767.392,346.033,114.124,133.68
EBIT 355.81330.56185.73152.39201.31580.89766.111,016.931,349.871,791.822,378.46
Tax Rate 39.38%35.70%36.83%38.03%-151.48%23.86%3.72%3.72%3.72%3.72%3.72%
EBIAT 215.68212.55117.3294.44506.26442.29737.61979.101,299.661,725.172,289.99
Depreciation 242.97238.14111.08116.16207.13430.19565.36750.46996.161,322.301,755.22
Accounts Receivable --60.4756.85280.23-432.13-42.35-623.97-406.19-539.18-715.71-950.03
Inventories --0.380.4618.45----19.04-25.28-33.56-44.54
Accounts Payable -42.14-38.49-103.62101.59-1.71185.5099.40131.94175.14232.48
Capital Expenditure --26.11-23.39-60.41215.40225.7383.47200.89266.66353.97469.86
UFCF 458.65405.88223.83345.25598.251,054.14947.971,604.612,129.962,827.313,752.97
WACC
PV UFCF 817.781,194.131,367.401,565.811,793.01
SUM PV UFCF 4,529.98

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 15.92
Free cash flow (t + 1) 3,903.09
Terminal Value 32,744.07
Present Value of Terminal Value 15,643.75

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 20,173.73
Net Debt 723.48
Equity Value 19,450.24
Shares Outstanding 178.00
Equity Value Per Share 109.27