Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Lonestar Resources US Inc (LONE)

$ 7.5
0 (0.00%)

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Revenue 81.6957.9794.07201.17195.1510.9011.9813.1714.4815.9217.51
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 43.0316.2453.16144.36128.296.606.707.368.098.909.78
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 43.0316.2453.16144.36128.294.504.394.835.315.846.42
EBIT (%)
Depreciation -----2.092.302.532.783.063.36
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Total Cash 4.326.072.545.363.1417.473.664.024.424.865.34
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 6.636.3913.2519.9417.306.052.152.362.602.853.14
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories -----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 28.2419.6035.0431.4648.367.654.324.755.225.746.31
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -94.52-43.96-208.74-219.47-157.76-0-12.05-13.25-14.57-16.01-17.60
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 7.5
Beta 3.282
Diluted Shares Outstanding 25.36
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 0.00
After-tax Cost of Debt 5.00%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 28.581
Total Debt 255.33
Total Equity 190.21
Total Capital 445.54
Debt Weighting 57.31
Equity Weighting 42.69
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Revenue 81.6957.9794.07201.17195.1510.9011.9813.1714.4815.9217.51
EBITDA 43.0316.2453.16144.36128.296.606.707.368.098.909.78
EBIT 43.0316.2453.16144.36128.294.504.394.835.315.846.42
Tax Rate 35.63%-40.95%43.48%25.98%10.82%0.00%12.49%12.49%12.49%12.49%12.49%
EBIAT 27.7022.8930.04106.85114.414.503.854.234.655.115.62
Depreciation -----2.092.302.532.783.063.36
Accounts Receivable -0.23-6.85-6.702.6411.253.91-0.21-0.23-0.26-0.28
Inventories -----------
Accounts Payable --8.6415.44-3.5716.89-40.70-3.330.430.470.520.57
Capital Expenditure -94.52-43.95-208.74-219.47-157.76-0.01-12.05-13.25-14.57-16.01-17.60
UFCF -66.82-29.47-170.11-122.89-23.82-22.87-5.33-6.28-6.90-7.59-8.34
WACC
PV UFCF -5.33-5.46-5.21-4.98-4.76
SUM PV UFCF -22.37

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 15.07
Free cash flow (t + 1) -8.67
Terminal Value -78.36
Present Value of Terminal Value -38.84

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -61.20
Net Debt 237.85
Equity Value -299.06
Shares Outstanding 25.36
Equity Value Per Share -11.79