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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Mattel Inc.

Mattel Inc. (MAT)

Consumer Cyclical

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 6,484.896,023.825,702.755,456.964,882.344,511.284,196.403,903.493,631.023,377.583,141.82
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 1,374.15915.02814.35767.25-124.9934.74350.40325.94303.19282.03262.34
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 1,177.66666.23549.17504.77-399.86-237.29138.48128.82119.82111.46103.68
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 196.49248.78265.18262.48274.88272.03211.92197.13183.37170.57158.66
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 1,039.53971.64893.05869.291,079.00594.59696.60647.98602.75560.68521.54
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,260.011,094.531,145.111,115.401,128.80969.93866.98806.46750.17697.81649.10
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 568.73562.02587.38613.91600.53542.71463.28430.94400.86372.88346.86
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 375.48430.10651.82664.66572.21537.74456.57424.70395.06367.48341.83
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -252.26-260.23-254.34-261.93-297.33-152.48-193.45-179.95-167.39-155.71-144.84
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 11.09
Diluted Shares Outstanding 345.01
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -26.65
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.38
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 14.07
Total Debt 2,851.72
Total Equity 3,826.18
Total Capital 6,677.91
Debt Weighting 42.70
Equity Weighting 57.30
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 6,484.896,023.825,702.755,456.964,882.344,511.284,196.403,903.493,631.023,377.583,141.82
EBITDA 1,374.15915.02814.35767.25-124.9934.74350.40325.94303.19282.03262.34
EBIT 1,177.66666.23549.17504.77-399.86-237.29138.48128.82119.82111.46103.68
Tax Rate 17.76%15.00%20.37%22.38%-108.69%-26.65%-9.97%-9.97%-9.97%-9.97%-9.97%
EBIAT 968.53566.30437.31391.78-834.46-300.53152.29141.66131.77122.57114.02
Depreciation 196.49248.78265.18262.48274.88272.03211.92197.13183.37170.57158.66
Accounts Receivable -165.49-50.5829.71-13.39158.87102.9560.5156.2952.3648.71
Inventories -6.70-25.36-26.5213.3857.8279.4332.3430.0827.9826.03
Accounts Payable -54.63221.7212.83-92.45-34.47-81.18-31.87-29.64-27.57-25.65
Capital Expenditure -7.97-5.897.5935.40-144.8540.97-13.50-12.56-11.68-10.87
UFCF 1,165.021,049.87842.38677.87-616.648.87506.38386.27359.30334.22310.90
WACC
PV UFCF 457.18314.86264.43222.08186.51
SUM PV UFCF 3,395.56

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 10.76
Free cash flow (t + 1) 323.33
Terminal Value 4,783.01
Present Value of Terminal Value 2,869.37

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 6,264.93
Net Debt 2,257.14
Equity Value 4,007.80
Shares Outstanding 345.01
Equity Value Per Share 11.62

Results Unlevered DCF

Wacc / Long-term Growth -4 (%)-3 (%)-2 (%)-1 (%)0 (%)1 (%)2 (%)3 (%)4 (%)
12.76 (%) 7.75 Sell 8.18 Sell 8.69 Sell 9.31 Sell 10.06 Sell 11.01 Sell 12.23 Buy 13.89 Buy 16.24 Buy
12.26 (%) 7.49 Sell 7.88 Sell 8.34 Sell 8.88 Sell 9.55 Sell 10.38 Sell 11.43 Buy 12.82 Buy 14.74 Buy
11.76 (%) 7.25 Sell 7.60 Sell 8.01 Sell 8.50 Sell 9.10 Sell 9.82 Sell 10.73 Sell 11.92 Buy 13.51 Buy
11.26 (%) 7.02 Sell 7.34 Sell 7.72 Sell 8.16 Sell 8.69 Sell 9.33 Sell 10.13 Sell 11.14 Buy 12.49 Buy
10.76 (%) 6.82 Sell 7.11 Sell 7.45 Sell 7.85 Sell 8.32 Sell 8.89 Sell 9.59 Sell 10.47 Sell 11.62 Buy
10.26 (%) 6.62 Sell 6.89 Sell 7.21 Sell 7.57 Sell 7.99 Sell 8.50 Sell 9.12 Sell 9.89 Sell 10.87 Sell
9.76 (%) 6.45 Sell 6.70 Sell 6.98 Sell 7.31 Sell 7.69 Sell 8.15 Sell 8.70 Sell 9.38 Sell 10.23 Sell
9.26 (%) 6.28 Sell 6.51 Sell 6.77 Sell 7.07 Sell 7.42 Sell 7.83 Sell 8.32 Sell 8.92 Sell 9.66 Sell
8.76 (%) 6.13 Sell 6.34 Sell 6.58 Sell 6.86 Sell 7.17 Sell 7.55 Sell 7.99 Sell 8.52 Sell 9.17 Sell