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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Mattel Inc.

Mattel Inc. (MAT)

Consumer Cyclical

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 6,484.896,023.825,702.755,453.544,882.014,515.374,201.103,908.703,636.663,383.543,148.05
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 1,374.15915.02814.35759.68-121.0736.57440.70410.02381.49354.93330.23
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 1,177.66666.23549.17497.36-395.93-235.25242.82225.92210.20195.57181.96
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 196.49248.78265.18262.32274.86271.83197.87184.10171.29159.36148.27
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 1,039.53971.64893.05869.291,079.41594.67693.18644.94600.05558.28519.43
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,260.011,094.531,145.111,115.251,124.81969.90858.70798.94743.33691.60643.46
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 568.73562.02587.38614.07600.49542.75447.84416.67387.67360.69335.58
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 375.48430.10651.82664.79572.17537.78421.37392.04364.76339.37315.75
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -252.26-260.23-254.34-262.32-297.31-152.62-188.63-175.50-163.29-151.92-141.35
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 13.34
Diluted Shares Outstanding 345.01
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -27.86
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.44
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 14.07
Total Debt 2,851.72
Total Equity 4,602.46
Total Capital 7,454.18
Debt Weighting 38.26
Equity Weighting 61.74
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 6,484.896,023.825,702.755,453.544,882.014,515.374,201.103,908.703,636.663,383.543,148.05
EBITDA 1,374.15915.02814.35759.68-121.0736.57440.70410.02381.49354.93330.23
EBIT 1,177.66666.23549.17497.36-395.93-235.25242.82225.92210.20195.57181.96
Tax Rate 17.76%15.00%20.37%22.17%-110.39%-27.86%-10.49%-10.49%-10.49%-10.49%-10.49%
EBIAT 968.53566.30437.31387.10-833.01-300.79268.30249.63232.25216.09201.05
Depreciation 196.49248.78265.18262.32274.86271.83197.87184.10171.29159.36148.27
Accounts Receivable -165.49-50.5829.86-9.57154.91111.2059.7755.6151.7448.14
Inventories -6.70-25.36-26.6913.5857.7494.9131.1729.0026.9825.10
Accounts Payable -54.63221.7212.96-92.62-34.39-116.41-29.33-27.29-25.39-23.62
Capital Expenditure -7.97-5.897.9735.00-144.6936.01-13.13-12.21-11.36-10.57
UFCF 1,165.021,049.87842.38673.52-611.754.61591.88482.21448.64417.42388.37
WACC
PV UFCF 532.60390.45326.89273.68229.13
SUM PV UFCF 3,525.88

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 11.13
Free cash flow (t + 1) 403.90
Terminal Value 5,664.81
Present Value of Terminal Value 3,342.17

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 6,868.05
Net Debt 2,257.05
Equity Value 4,611.00
Shares Outstanding 345.01
Equity Value Per Share 13.36