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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Mondelez International Inc.

Mondelez International Inc. (MDLZ)

Consumer Defensive

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 35,299.0034,243.5629,634.3825,921.1925,895.2725,936.7024,437.5623,025.0721,694.2220,440.2919,258.84
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 6,632.684,283.879,767.493,685.994,692.225,485.614,794.654,517.524,256.414,010.393,778.59
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 5,556.063,225.748,872.532,861.703,876.524,673.794,037.083,803.743,583.893,376.743,181.56
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 1,076.621,058.13894.96824.29815.70811.82757.56713.78672.52633.65597.02
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 2,622.721,629.991,869.931,741.90761.321,099.721,319.631,243.351,171.491,103.781,039.98
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 5,404.284,749.583,846.543,470.853,526.943,006.063,289.303,099.172,920.042,751.262,592.24
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 3,741.693,479.152,607.832,470.292,555.862,591.082,402.212,263.362,132.542,009.281,893.14
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 5,344.275,297.484,889.675,319.035,704.735,794.264,562.494,298.784,050.313,816.203,595.63
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -1,479.03-1,633.42-1,455.05-1,086.10-903.74-697.70-987.28-930.21-876.45-825.79-778.06
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 53.99
Diluted Shares Outstanding 1,453.84
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 18.61
After-tax Cost of Debt -0.88
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.61
Total Debt 12,532.00
Total Equity 78,492.57
Total Capital 91,024.57
Debt Weighting 13.77
Equity Weighting 86.23
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 35,299.0034,243.5629,634.3825,921.1925,895.2725,936.7024,437.5623,025.0721,694.2220,440.2919,258.84
EBITDA 6,632.684,283.879,767.493,685.994,692.225,485.614,794.654,517.524,256.414,010.393,778.59
EBIT 5,556.063,225.748,872.532,861.703,876.524,673.794,037.083,803.743,583.893,376.743,181.56
Tax Rate 1.51%13.91%7.54%6.52%19.06%18.61%11.19%11.19%11.19%11.19%11.19%
EBIAT 5,472.202,776.918,203.142,675.173,137.613,804.073,585.233,378.003,182.752,998.792,825.46
Depreciation 1,076.621,058.13894.96824.29815.70811.82757.56713.78672.52633.65597.02
Accounts Receivable -654.70903.04375.69-56.09520.87-283.23190.12179.13168.78159.02
Inventories -262.55871.32137.54-85.57-35.21188.86138.85130.82123.26116.14
Accounts Payable --46.79-407.81429.36385.7089.53-1,231.77-263.71-248.47-234.11-220.58
Capital Expenditure -154.39-178.37-368.95-182.35-206.05289.58-57.06-53.77-50.66-47.73
UFCF 6,548.824,859.8810,286.284,073.104,014.994,985.033,306.244,099.973,862.993,639.713,429.34
WACC
PV UFCF 3,037.433,460.382,995.292,592.712,244.23
SUM PV UFCF 35,235.32

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.85
Free cash flow (t + 1) 3,566.51
Terminal Value 73,536.30
Present Value of Terminal Value 48,123.76

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 83,359.08
Net Debt 11,432.28
Equity Value 71,926.80
Shares Outstanding 1,453.84
Equity Value Per Share 49.47