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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Medtronic plc.

Medtronic plc. (MDT)

Healthcare

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 16,590.0017,004.7520,261.1628,833.6629,710.2029,953.8230,558.8934,115.9538,087.0442,520.3747,469.74
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 5,220.874,662.705,071.378,110.918,615.969,474.399,280.739,897.0411,049.0512,335.1613,770.97
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 4,401.333,812.463,764.525,290.985,698.426,829.476,622.117,290.588,139.209,086.6010,144.28
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 819.55850.241,306.842,819.932,917.542,644.922,658.622,606.462,909.853,248.563,626.69
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 11,130.2314,241.4819,479.0812,634.9113,708.2911,226.699,849.1319,817.9522,124.7624,700.0827,575.17
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 3,727.773,810.765,111.895,562.015,591.465,987.776,221.797,239.408,082.079,022.8210,073.08
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1,712.091,724.283,462.633,471.573,339.433,579.483,752.634,145.094,627.585,166.235,767.57
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 680.19741.411,610.761,709.841,553.841,629.491,952.711,920.732,144.302,393.902,672.55
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -456.23-396.21-571.36-1,046.66-1,253.77-1,069.35-1,133.73-1,122.41-1,253.06-1,398.92-1,561.75
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 112.51
Diluted Shares Outstanding 1,346.40
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 10.56
After-tax Cost of Debt -0.48
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.79
Total Debt 24,486.00
Total Equity 151,483.46
Total Capital 175,969.46
Debt Weighting 13.91
Equity Weighting 86.09
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 16,590.0017,004.7520,261.1628,833.6629,710.2029,953.8230,558.8934,115.9538,087.0442,520.3747,469.74
EBITDA 5,220.874,662.705,071.378,110.918,615.969,474.399,280.739,897.0411,049.0512,335.1613,770.97
EBIT 4,401.333,812.463,764.525,290.985,698.426,829.476,622.117,290.588,139.209,086.6010,144.28
Tax Rate 18.44%17.27%23.26%18.40%12.55%45.39%10.56%20.84%20.84%20.84%20.84%
EBIAT 3,589.603,153.902,888.734,317.224,983.333,729.545,922.565,771.136,442.897,192.848,030.09
Depreciation 819.55850.241,306.842,819.932,917.542,644.922,658.622,606.462,909.853,248.563,626.69
Accounts Receivable --82.99-1,301.13-450.12-29.45-396.31-234.02-1,017.61-842.67-940.75-1,050.26
Inventories --12.19-1,738.35-8.94132.15-240.06-173.15-392.46-482.49-538.65-601.35
Accounts Payable -61.22869.3699.07-155.9975.64323.23-31.99223.57249.60278.65
Capital Expenditure --60.01175.15475.30207.11-184.4264.38-11.32130.65145.86162.83
UFCF 4,409.153,910.162,200.607,252.468,054.695,629.328,561.626,924.228,381.819,357.4510,446.66
WACC
PV UFCF 5,915.576,618.766,829.827,047.61
SUM PV UFCF 44,795.02

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.19
Free cash flow (t + 1) 10,864.52
Terminal Value 259,296.54
Present Value of Terminal Value 174,928.72

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 219,723.74
Net Debt 14,636.87
Equity Value 205,086.87
Shares Outstanding 1,346.40
Equity Value Per Share 152.32