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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


MGM Resorts International

MGM Resorts International (MGM)

Consumer Cyclical

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 10,564.1910,848.379,941.459,478.1710,797.5411,762.8412,058.0812,360.7412,671.0012,989.0413,315.06
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 1,556.111,767.201,163.152,666.212,486.672,464.312,307.922,365.852,425.232,486.102,548.50
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 706.74951.40342.981,816.971,493.301,286.851,263.691,295.411,327.921,361.251,395.42
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 849.36815.80820.17849.24993.371,177.461,044.231,070.441,097.311,124.851,153.08
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 1,803.312,283.581,670.161,446.371,499.781,526.821,951.001,999.972,050.172,101.632,154.38
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 488.07472.99480.17543.10542.04657.54606.52621.75637.35653.35669.75
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 107.75104.14104.3997.63102.58110.57119.38122.37125.44128.59131.82
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 240.86335.21432.45521.30729.91614.02546.23559.94574.00588.40603.17
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -544.06-864.62-1,458.41-2,258.65-1,863.65-1,460.94-1,633.87-1,674.88-1,716.92-1,760.01-1,804.19
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 31.96
Diluted Shares Outstanding 544.25
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 9.70
After-tax Cost of Debt -0.43
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 13.59
Total Debt 15,088.00
Total Equity 17,394.33
Total Capital 32,482.33
Debt Weighting 46.45
Equity Weighting 53.55
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 10,564.1910,848.379,941.459,478.1710,797.5411,762.8412,058.0812,360.7412,671.0012,989.0413,315.06
EBITDA 1,556.111,767.201,163.152,666.212,486.672,464.312,307.922,365.852,425.232,486.102,548.50
EBIT 706.74951.40342.981,816.971,493.301,286.851,263.691,295.411,327.921,361.251,395.42
Tax Rate -13.79%211.98%1.45%1.94%-136.71%9.70%12.43%12.43%12.43%12.43%12.43%
EBIAT 804.23-1,065.41338.001,781.763,534.801,162.091,106.641,134.421,162.901,192.081,222.01
Depreciation 849.36815.80820.17849.24993.371,177.461,044.231,070.441,097.311,124.851,153.08
Accounts Receivable -15.08-7.18-62.931.06-115.5151.02-15.22-15.61-16.00-16.40
Inventories -3.61-0.246.76-4.95-7.99-8.80-3.00-3.07-3.15-3.23
Accounts Payable -94.3597.2488.85208.61-115.89-67.7913.7114.0514.4114.77
Capital Expenditure -320.56593.80800.24-394.99-402.71172.9341.0142.0443.0944.18
UFCF 1,653.59183.981,841.783,463.924,337.901,697.452,298.232,241.362,297.622,355.292,414.41
WACC
PV UFCF 2,101.331,873.771,756.241,646.081,542.84
SUM PV UFCF 14,469.96

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.37
Free cash flow (t + 1) 2,510.98
Terminal Value 46,759.49
Present Value of Terminal Value 29,879.87

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 44,349.83
Net Debt 13,561.19
Equity Value 30,788.64
Shares Outstanding 544.25
Equity Value Per Share 56.57