Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Markel Corporation

Markel Corporation (MKL)

$1072.66
-21.02 (-1.92%)

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 4,323.085,133.665,369.815,611.996,061.516,841.029,526.1210,922.6512,523.9114,359.9116,465.07
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 665.75761.321,061.61997.81423.70267.482,746.381,677.721,923.672,205.682,529.04
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 475.54557.52860.78803.64220.0339.682,476.791,286.691,475.321,691.601,939.59
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 190.22203.81200.83194.17203.67227.81269.59391.03448.36514.08589.45
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Projected
2014
Projected
2015
Projected
2016
Projected
2017
Projected
2018
Projected
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 12,121.0618,115.6617,741.3118,712.0520,267.8618,855.90257.2129,800.2634,168.9739,178.1544,921.66
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 5.628.735.9110.1032.1353.3630.4834.9540.0845.9552.69
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories -----298.95302.93411.78472.15541.37620.73
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 295.70276.19225.00231.21324.29337.26139.08503.53577.35661.99759.04
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure 47.5582.1480.0163.4274.56106.72123.84146.36167.82192.42220.63
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 1,072.66
Diluted Shares Outstanding 13.94
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 21.28
After-tax Cost of Debt 3.94%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.25
Total Debt 4,463.43
Total Equity 14,954.76
Total Capital 15,884.00
Debt Weighting 5.85
Equity Weighting 94.15
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 4,323.085,133.665,369.815,611.996,061.516,841.029,526.1210,922.6512,523.9114,359.9116,465.07
EBITDA 665.75761.321,061.61997.81423.70267.482,746.381,677.721,923.672,205.682,529.04
EBIT 475.54557.52860.78803.64220.0339.682,476.791,286.691,475.321,691.601,939.59
Tax Rate 22.31%27.07%21.47%27.66%-352.80%-1,531.83%21.28%-252.12%-252.12%-252.12%-252.12%
EBIAT 369.42406.61675.97581.36996.30647.471,949.814,530.685,194.875,956.446,829.66
Depreciation 190.22203.81200.83194.17203.67227.81269.59391.03448.36514.08589.45
Accounts Receivable --3.112.82-4.19-22.02-21.2322.88-4.47-5.12-5.88-6.74
Inventories -------3.98-108.85-60.37-69.22-79.36
Accounts Payable --19.51-51.206.2293.0812.97-198.18364.4573.8284.6497.05
Capital Expenditure --34.582.1316.59-11.14-32.16-17.12-22.52-21.46-24.60-28.21
UFCF 559.64553.22830.55794.151,259.88834.852,023.005,150.315,630.106,455.477,401.84
WACC
PV UFCF 5,150.315,213.545,535.555,877.46
SUM PV UFCF 16,575.55

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.99
Free cash flow (t + 1) 7,697.92
Terminal Value 192,930.30
Present Value of Terminal Value 131,365.92

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 147,941.47
Net Debt 4,206.67
Equity Value 152,148.14
Shares Outstanding 13.94
Equity Value Per Share 10,913.13