Loading...

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Altria Group Inc.

Altria Group Inc. (MO)

Consumer Defensive

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 24,466.0024,522.2725,434.5025,744.8025,577.4625,365.1725,552.8725,741.9625,932.4526,124.3526,317.67
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 8,203.458,788.789,118.2722,797.0210,737.4210,229.7711,756.8811,843.8811,931.5212,019.8112,108.76
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 7,990.608,580.348,894.4422,593.6410,527.6810,004.0211,539.6811,625.0711,711.0911,797.7611,885.06
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 212.85208.44223.82203.38209.74225.75217.20218.81220.43222.06223.70
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 3,175.693,320.322,367.954,569.701,253.301,334.212,713.712,733.802,754.032,774.412,794.94
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 114.99125.06124.63151.89143.23142.04135.43136.43137.44138.46139.48
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1,878.992,040.252,032.222,051.862,225.242,331.062,123.442,139.162,154.992,170.932,187.00
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 408.58416.88399.32424.79373.43398.23408.85411.87414.92417.99421.08
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -132.12-161.85-228.91-187.94-199.50-238.43-194.20-195.64-197.09-198.55-200.01
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 50.01
Diluted Shares Outstanding 1,879.05
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 25.43
After-tax Cost of Debt -1.22
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 5.54
Total Debt 11,898.00
Total Equity 93,971.06
Total Capital 105,869.06
Debt Weighting 11.24
Equity Weighting 88.76
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 24,466.0024,522.2725,434.5025,744.8025,577.4625,365.1725,552.8725,741.9625,932.4526,124.3526,317.67
EBITDA 8,203.458,788.789,118.2722,797.0210,737.4210,229.7711,756.8811,843.8811,931.5212,019.8112,108.76
EBIT 7,990.608,580.348,894.4422,593.6410,527.6810,004.0211,539.6811,625.0711,711.0911,797.7611,885.06
Tax Rate 34.67%34.78%35.10%34.82%-4.06%25.43%26.79%26.79%26.79%26.79%26.79%
EBIAT 5,220.025,595.885,772.1414,725.6310,955.317,460.438,448.058,510.578,573.558,636.998,700.90
Depreciation 212.85208.44223.82203.38209.74225.75217.20218.81220.43222.06223.70
Accounts Receivable --10.070.43-27.278.661.196.61-1.00-1.01-1.02-1.02
Inventories --161.268.04-19.64-173.38-105.82207.62-15.71-15.83-15.95-16.06
Accounts Payable -8.30-17.5625.47-51.3624.8010.613.033.053.073.09
Capital Expenditure -29.7367.06-40.9711.5738.93-44.231.441.451.461.47
UFCF 5,432.875,671.006,053.9414,866.6010,960.537,645.288,845.868,717.128,781.638,846.618,912.08
WACC
PV UFCF 8,397.447,855.737,512.687,184.626,870.88
SUM PV UFCF 69,247.17

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.34
Free cash flow (t + 1) 9,268.56
Terminal Value 691,683.67
Present Value of Terminal Value 533,262.39

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 602,509.55
Net Debt 10,563.79
Equity Value 591,945.76
Shares Outstanding 1,879.05
Equity Value Per Share 315.02