Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Altria Group Inc. (MO)
Consumer Defensive
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Projected | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected |
| Revenue | 24,466.00 | 24,522.27 | 25,434.50 | 25,744.80 | 25,577.46 | 25,365.17 | 25,552.87 | 25,741.96 | 25,932.45 | 26,124.35 | 26,317.67 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | |||||||||||
| EBITDA | 8,203.45 | 8,788.78 | 9,118.27 | 22,797.02 | 10,737.42 | 10,229.77 | 11,756.88 | 11,843.88 | 11,931.52 | 12,019.81 | 12,108.76 |
| EBITDA (%) | |||||||||||
| EBIT | 7,990.60 | 8,580.34 | 8,894.44 | 22,593.64 | 10,527.68 | 10,004.02 | 11,539.68 | 11,625.07 | 11,711.09 | 11,797.76 | 11,885.06 |
| EBIT (%) | |||||||||||
| Depreciation | 212.85 | 208.44 | 223.82 | 203.38 | 209.74 | 225.75 | 217.20 | 218.81 | 220.43 | 222.06 | 223.70 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Projected | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected |
| Total Cash | 3,175.69 | 3,320.32 | 2,367.95 | 4,569.70 | 1,253.30 | 1,334.21 | 2,713.71 | 2,733.80 | 2,754.03 | 2,774.41 | 2,794.94 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | |||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 114.99 | 125.06 | 124.63 | 151.89 | 143.23 | 142.04 | 135.43 | 136.43 | 137.44 | 138.46 | 139.48 |
| Account Receivables (%) | |||||||||||
| Inventories | 1,878.99 | 2,040.25 | 2,032.22 | 2,051.86 | 2,225.24 | 2,331.06 | 2,123.44 | 2,139.16 | 2,154.99 | 2,170.93 | 2,187.00 |
| Inventories (%) | |||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 408.58 | 416.88 | 399.32 | 424.79 | 373.43 | 398.23 | 408.85 | 411.87 | 414.92 | 417.99 | 421.08 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | |||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -132.12 | -161.85 | -228.91 | -187.94 | -199.50 | -238.43 | -194.20 | -195.64 | -197.09 | -198.55 | -200.01 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 50.01 |
|---|---|
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 1,879.05 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 25.43 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | -1.22 |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 5.54 |
| Total Debt | 11,898.00 |
| Total Equity | 93,971.06 |
| Total Capital | 105,869.06 |
| Debt Weighting | 11.24 |
| Equity Weighting | 88.76 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Projected | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected |
| Revenue | 24,466.00 | 24,522.27 | 25,434.50 | 25,744.80 | 25,577.46 | 25,365.17 | 25,552.87 | 25,741.96 | 25,932.45 | 26,124.35 | 26,317.67 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 8,203.45 | 8,788.78 | 9,118.27 | 22,797.02 | 10,737.42 | 10,229.77 | 11,756.88 | 11,843.88 | 11,931.52 | 12,019.81 | 12,108.76 |
| EBIT | 7,990.60 | 8,580.34 | 8,894.44 | 22,593.64 | 10,527.68 | 10,004.02 | 11,539.68 | 11,625.07 | 11,711.09 | 11,797.76 | 11,885.06 |
| Tax Rate | 34.67% | 34.78% | 35.10% | 34.82% | -4.06% | 25.43% | 26.79% | 26.79% | 26.79% | 26.79% | 26.79% |
| EBIAT | 5,220.02 | 5,595.88 | 5,772.14 | 14,725.63 | 10,955.31 | 7,460.43 | 8,448.05 | 8,510.57 | 8,573.55 | 8,636.99 | 8,700.90 |
| Depreciation | 212.85 | 208.44 | 223.82 | 203.38 | 209.74 | 225.75 | 217.20 | 218.81 | 220.43 | 222.06 | 223.70 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -10.07 | 0.43 | -27.27 | 8.66 | 1.19 | 6.61 | -1.00 | -1.01 | -1.02 | -1.02 |
| Inventories | - | -161.26 | 8.04 | -19.64 | -173.38 | -105.82 | 207.62 | -15.71 | -15.83 | -15.95 | -16.06 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 8.30 | -17.56 | 25.47 | -51.36 | 24.80 | 10.61 | 3.03 | 3.05 | 3.07 | 3.09 |
| Capital Expenditure | - | 29.73 | 67.06 | -40.97 | 11.57 | 38.93 | -44.23 | 1.44 | 1.45 | 1.46 | 1.47 |
| UFCF | 5,432.87 | 5,671.00 | 6,053.94 | 14,866.60 | 10,960.53 | 7,645.28 | 8,845.86 | 8,717.12 | 8,781.63 | 8,846.61 | 8,912.08 |
| WACC | |||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 8,397.44 | 7,855.73 | 7,512.68 | 7,184.62 | 6,870.88 | ||||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 69,247.17 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 5.34 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 9,268.56 |
| Terminal Value | 691,683.67 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 533,262.39 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 602,509.55 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 10,563.79 |
| Equity Value | 591,945.76 |
| Shares Outstanding | 1,879.05 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 315.02 |