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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Marathon Petroleum Corporation

Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC)

Energy

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 100,254.0098,098.5472,259.3863,364.2575,371.7897,109.0098,468.5399,847.09101,244.95102,662.37104,099.65
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 4,621.715,346.376,178.184,346.795,758.407,234.626,656.476,749.666,844.166,939.987,037.14
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 3,398.614,022.044,675.182,344.483,647.994,748.634,490.164,553.034,616.774,681.404,746.94
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 1,223.101,324.331,503.002,002.312,110.412,485.992,166.312,196.642,227.392,258.572,290.19
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 2,295.821,491.101,127.25887.103,007.331,689.702,048.152,076.822,105.892,135.382,165.27
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 5,554.074,061.282,926.513,618.104,695.665,855.675,199.145,271.935,345.735,420.575,496.46
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 4,691.895,640.675,224.355,658.435,547.369,837.147,237.447,338.767,441.507,545.687,651.32
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 8,641.897,092.525,246.036,120.998,886.3310,516.909,088.659,215.899,344.919,475.749,608.40
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -1,193.02-1,451.86-1,979.91-2,788.03-2,653.09-3,525.06-2,786.66-2,825.67-2,865.23-2,905.35-2,946.02
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 59.81
Diluted Shares Outstanding 518.00
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 25.71
After-tax Cost of Debt -1.24
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 13.43
Total Debt 26,980.00
Total Equity 30,981.58
Total Capital 57,961.58
Debt Weighting 46.55
Equity Weighting 53.45
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 100,254.0098,098.5472,259.3863,364.2575,371.7897,109.0098,468.5399,847.09101,244.95102,662.37104,099.65
EBITDA 4,621.715,346.376,178.184,346.795,758.407,234.626,656.476,749.666,844.166,939.987,037.14
EBIT 3,398.614,022.044,675.182,344.483,647.994,748.634,490.164,553.034,616.774,681.404,746.94
Tax Rate 34.51%33.65%34.56%34.16%-15.48%25.71%24.52%24.52%24.52%24.52%24.52%
EBIAT 2,225.692,668.673,059.571,543.704,212.623,527.843,389.303,436.753,484.863,533.653,583.12
Depreciation 1,223.101,324.331,503.002,002.312,110.412,485.992,166.312,196.642,227.392,258.572,290.19
Accounts Receivable -1,492.791,134.77-691.59-1,077.56-1,160.01656.53-72.79-73.81-74.84-75.89
Inventories --948.78416.31-434.07111.06-4,289.782,599.71-101.32-102.74-104.18-105.64
Accounts Payable --1,549.37-1,846.49874.962,765.351,630.57-1,428.26127.24129.02130.83132.66
Capital Expenditure -258.84528.05808.12-134.94871.97-738.4039.0139.5640.1140.67
UFCF 3,448.793,246.484,795.214,103.427,986.943,066.596,645.195,625.535,704.285,784.145,865.12
WACC
PV UFCF 6,101.544,742.724,415.684,111.193,827.70
SUM PV UFCF 33,483.69

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.91
Free cash flow (t + 1) 6,099.73
Terminal Value 124,230.66
Present Value of Terminal Value 81,075.57

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 114,559.26
Net Debt 25,290.30
Equity Value 89,268.96
Shares Outstanding 518.00
Equity Value Per Share 172.33