Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC)

Energy

Operating Data

Year A/P	2013 Actual	2014 Actual	2015 Actual	2016 Actual	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Projected	2020 Projected	2021 Projected	2022 Projected	2023 Projected
Revenue	100,254.00	98,098.54	72,259.38	63,364.25	75,371.78	97,109.00	98,468.53	99,847.09	101,244.95	102,662.37	104,099.65
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	4,621.71	5,346.37	6,178.18	4,346.79	5,758.40	7,234.62	6,656.47	6,749.66	6,844.16	6,939.98	7,037.14
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	3,398.61	4,022.04	4,675.18	2,344.48	3,647.99	4,748.63	4,490.16	4,553.03	4,616.77	4,681.40	4,746.94
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	1,223.10	1,324.33	1,503.00	2,002.31	2,110.41	2,485.99	2,166.31	2,196.64	2,227.39	2,258.57	2,290.19
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2013 Actual	2014 Actual	2015 Actual	2016 Actual	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Projected	2020 Projected	2021 Projected	2022 Projected	2023 Projected
Total Cash	2,295.82	1,491.10	1,127.25	887.10	3,007.33	1,689.70	2,048.15	2,076.82	2,105.89	2,135.38	2,165.27
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	5,554.07	4,061.28	2,926.51	3,618.10	4,695.66	5,855.67	5,199.14	5,271.93	5,345.73	5,420.57	5,496.46
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	4,691.89	5,640.67	5,224.35	5,658.43	5,547.36	9,837.14	7,237.44	7,338.76	7,441.50	7,545.68	7,651.32
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	8,641.89	7,092.52	5,246.03	6,120.99	8,886.33	10,516.90	9,088.65	9,215.89	9,344.91	9,475.74	9,608.40
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-1,193.02	-1,451.86	-1,979.91	-2,788.03	-2,653.09	-3,525.06	-2,786.66	-2,825.67	-2,865.23	-2,905.35	-2,946.02
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 59.81
Diluted Shares Outstanding	518.00
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	25.71
After-tax Cost of Debt	-1.24
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	13.43
Total Debt	26,980.00
Total Equity	30,981.58
Total Capital	57,961.58
Debt Weighting	46.55
Equity Weighting	53.45
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2013 Actual	2014 Actual	2015 Actual	2016 Actual	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Projected	2020 Projected	2021 Projected	2022 Projected	2023 Projected
Revenue	100,254.00	98,098.54	72,259.38	63,364.25	75,371.78	97,109.00	98,468.53	99,847.09	101,244.95	102,662.37	104,099.65
EBITDA	4,621.71	5,346.37	6,178.18	4,346.79	5,758.40	7,234.62	6,656.47	6,749.66	6,844.16	6,939.98	7,037.14
EBIT	3,398.61	4,022.04	4,675.18	2,344.48	3,647.99	4,748.63	4,490.16	4,553.03	4,616.77	4,681.40	4,746.94
Tax Rate	34.51%	33.65%	34.56%	34.16%	-15.48%	25.71%	24.52%	24.52%	24.52%	24.52%	24.52%
EBIAT	2,225.69	2,668.67	3,059.57	1,543.70	4,212.62	3,527.84	3,389.30	3,436.75	3,484.86	3,533.65	3,583.12
Depreciation	1,223.10	1,324.33	1,503.00	2,002.31	2,110.41	2,485.99	2,166.31	2,196.64	2,227.39	2,258.57	2,290.19
Accounts Receivable	-	1,492.79	1,134.77	-691.59	-1,077.56	-1,160.01	656.53	-72.79	-73.81	-74.84	-75.89
Inventories	-	-948.78	416.31	-434.07	111.06	-4,289.78	2,599.71	-101.32	-102.74	-104.18	-105.64
Accounts Payable	-	-1,549.37	-1,846.49	874.96	2,765.35	1,630.57	-1,428.26	127.24	129.02	130.83	132.66
Capital Expenditure	-	258.84	528.05	808.12	-134.94	871.97	-738.40	39.01	39.56	40.11	40.67
UFCF	3,448.79	3,246.48	4,795.21	4,103.42	7,986.94	3,066.59	6,645.19	5,625.53	5,704.28	5,784.14	5,865.12
WACC
PV UFCF							6,101.54	4,742.72	4,415.68	4,111.19	3,827.70
SUM PV UFCF											33,483.69

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	8.91
Free cash flow (t + 1)	6,099.73
Terminal Value	124,230.66
Present Value of Terminal Value	81,075.57

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	114,559.26
Net Debt	25,290.30
Equity Value	89,268.96
Shares Outstanding	518.00
Equity Value Per Share	172.33

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