Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC)
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Projected | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected |
Revenue | 100,254.00 | 98,098.54 | 72,259.38 | 63,364.25 | 75,371.78 | 97,109.00 | 98,468.53 | 99,847.09 | 101,244.95 | 102,662.37 | 104,099.65 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | |||||||||||
EBITDA | 4,621.71 | 5,346.37 | 6,178.18 | 4,346.79 | 5,758.40 | 7,234.62 | 6,656.47 | 6,749.66 | 6,844.16 | 6,939.98 | 7,037.14 |
EBITDA (%) | |||||||||||
EBIT | 3,398.61 | 4,022.04 | 4,675.18 | 2,344.48 | 3,647.99 | 4,748.63 | 4,490.16 | 4,553.03 | 4,616.77 | 4,681.40 | 4,746.94 |
EBIT (%) | |||||||||||
Depreciation | 1,223.10 | 1,324.33 | 1,503.00 | 2,002.31 | 2,110.41 | 2,485.99 | 2,166.31 | 2,196.64 | 2,227.39 | 2,258.57 | 2,290.19 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Projected | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected |
Total Cash | 2,295.82 | 1,491.10 | 1,127.25 | 887.10 | 3,007.33 | 1,689.70 | 2,048.15 | 2,076.82 | 2,105.89 | 2,135.38 | 2,165.27 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | |||||||||||
Account Receivables | 5,554.07 | 4,061.28 | 2,926.51 | 3,618.10 | 4,695.66 | 5,855.67 | 5,199.14 | 5,271.93 | 5,345.73 | 5,420.57 | 5,496.46 |
Account Receivables (%) | |||||||||||
Inventories | 4,691.89 | 5,640.67 | 5,224.35 | 5,658.43 | 5,547.36 | 9,837.14 | 7,237.44 | 7,338.76 | 7,441.50 | 7,545.68 | 7,651.32 |
Inventories (%) | |||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 8,641.89 | 7,092.52 | 5,246.03 | 6,120.99 | 8,886.33 | 10,516.90 | 9,088.65 | 9,215.89 | 9,344.91 | 9,475.74 | 9,608.40 |
Accounts Payable (%) | |||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -1,193.02 | -1,451.86 | -1,979.91 | -2,788.03 | -2,653.09 | -3,525.06 | -2,786.66 | -2,825.67 | -2,865.23 | -2,905.35 | -2,946.02 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 59.81 |
---|---|
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 518.00 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 25.71 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | -1.24 |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 13.43 |
Total Debt | 26,980.00 |
Total Equity | 30,981.58 |
Total Capital | 57,961.58 |
Debt Weighting | 46.55 |
Equity Weighting | 53.45 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Projected | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected |
Revenue | 100,254.00 | 98,098.54 | 72,259.38 | 63,364.25 | 75,371.78 | 97,109.00 | 98,468.53 | 99,847.09 | 101,244.95 | 102,662.37 | 104,099.65 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 4,621.71 | 5,346.37 | 6,178.18 | 4,346.79 | 5,758.40 | 7,234.62 | 6,656.47 | 6,749.66 | 6,844.16 | 6,939.98 | 7,037.14 |
EBIT | 3,398.61 | 4,022.04 | 4,675.18 | 2,344.48 | 3,647.99 | 4,748.63 | 4,490.16 | 4,553.03 | 4,616.77 | 4,681.40 | 4,746.94 |
Tax Rate | 34.51% | 33.65% | 34.56% | 34.16% | -15.48% | 25.71% | 24.52% | 24.52% | 24.52% | 24.52% | 24.52% |
EBIAT | 2,225.69 | 2,668.67 | 3,059.57 | 1,543.70 | 4,212.62 | 3,527.84 | 3,389.30 | 3,436.75 | 3,484.86 | 3,533.65 | 3,583.12 |
Depreciation | 1,223.10 | 1,324.33 | 1,503.00 | 2,002.31 | 2,110.41 | 2,485.99 | 2,166.31 | 2,196.64 | 2,227.39 | 2,258.57 | 2,290.19 |
Accounts Receivable | - | 1,492.79 | 1,134.77 | -691.59 | -1,077.56 | -1,160.01 | 656.53 | -72.79 | -73.81 | -74.84 | -75.89 |
Inventories | - | -948.78 | 416.31 | -434.07 | 111.06 | -4,289.78 | 2,599.71 | -101.32 | -102.74 | -104.18 | -105.64 |
Accounts Payable | - | -1,549.37 | -1,846.49 | 874.96 | 2,765.35 | 1,630.57 | -1,428.26 | 127.24 | 129.02 | 130.83 | 132.66 |
Capital Expenditure | - | 258.84 | 528.05 | 808.12 | -134.94 | 871.97 | -738.40 | 39.01 | 39.56 | 40.11 | 40.67 |
UFCF | 3,448.79 | 3,246.48 | 4,795.21 | 4,103.42 | 7,986.94 | 3,066.59 | 6,645.19 | 5,625.53 | 5,704.28 | 5,784.14 | 5,865.12 |
WACC | |||||||||||
PV UFCF | 6,101.54 | 4,742.72 | 4,415.68 | 4,111.19 | 3,827.70 | ||||||
SUM PV UFCF | 33,483.69 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 8.91 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 6,099.73 |
Terminal Value | 124,230.66 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 81,075.57 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 114,559.26 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 25,290.30 |
Equity Value | 89,268.96 |
Shares Outstanding | 518.00 |
Equity Value Per Share | 172.33 |