Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC)

Energy

Operating Data

Year A/P	2013 Actual	2014 Actual	2015 Actual	2016 Actual	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Projected	2020 Projected	2021 Projected	2022 Projected	2023 Projected
Revenue	100,254.00	98,098.54	72,259.38	63,364.25	75,371.78	97,109.00	98,468.53	99,847.09	101,244.95	102,662.37	104,099.65
Revenue (%)
EBITDA	4,621.71	5,346.37	6,178.18	4,346.79	5,758.40	7,234.62	6,656.47	6,749.66	6,844.16	6,939.98	7,037.14
EBITDA (%)
EBIT	3,398.61	4,022.04	4,675.18	2,344.48	3,647.99	4,748.63	4,490.16	4,553.03	4,616.77	4,681.40	4,746.94
EBIT (%)
Depreciation	1,223.10	1,324.33	1,503.00	2,002.31	2,110.41	2,485.99	2,166.31	2,196.64	2,227.39	2,258.57	2,290.19
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year A/P	2013 Actual	2014 Actual	2015 Actual	2016 Actual	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Projected	2020 Projected	2021 Projected	2022 Projected	2023 Projected
Total Cash	2,295.82	1,491.10	1,127.25	887.10	3,007.33	1,689.70	2,048.15	2,076.82	2,105.89	2,135.38	2,165.27
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables	5,554.07	4,061.28	2,926.51	3,618.10	4,695.66	5,855.67	5,199.14	5,271.93	5,345.73	5,420.57	5,496.46
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories	4,691.89	5,640.67	5,224.35	5,658.43	5,547.36	9,837.14	7,237.44	7,338.76	7,441.50	7,545.68	7,651.32
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable	8,641.89	7,092.52	5,246.03	6,120.99	8,886.33	10,516.90	9,088.65	9,215.89	9,344.91	9,475.74	9,608.40
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure	-1,193.02	-1,451.86	-1,979.91	-2,788.03	-2,653.09	-3,525.06	-2,786.66	-2,825.67	-2,865.23	-2,905.35	-2,946.02
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price	$ 45.61
Diluted Shares Outstanding	526.00
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate	25.71
After-tax Cost of Debt	-1.24
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity	13.43
Total Debt	26,980.00
Total Equity	23,990.86
Total Capital	50,970.86
Debt Weighting	52.93
Equity Weighting	47.07
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year A/P	2013 Actual	2014 Actual	2015 Actual	2016 Actual	2017 Actual	2018 Actual	2019 Projected	2020 Projected	2021 Projected	2022 Projected	2023 Projected
Revenue	100,254.00	98,098.54	72,259.38	63,364.25	75,371.78	97,109.00	98,468.53	99,847.09	101,244.95	102,662.37	104,099.65
EBITDA	4,621.71	5,346.37	6,178.18	4,346.79	5,758.40	7,234.62	6,656.47	6,749.66	6,844.16	6,939.98	7,037.14
EBIT	3,398.61	4,022.04	4,675.18	2,344.48	3,647.99	4,748.63	4,490.16	4,553.03	4,616.77	4,681.40	4,746.94
Tax Rate	34.51%	33.65%	34.56%	34.16%	-15.48%	25.71%	24.52%	24.52%	24.52%	24.52%	24.52%
EBIAT	2,225.69	2,668.67	3,059.57	1,543.70	4,212.62	3,527.84	3,389.30	3,436.75	3,484.86	3,533.65	3,583.12
Depreciation	1,223.10	1,324.33	1,503.00	2,002.31	2,110.41	2,485.99	2,166.31	2,196.64	2,227.39	2,258.57	2,290.19
Accounts Receivable	-	1,492.79	1,134.77	-691.59	-1,077.56	-1,160.01	656.53	-72.79	-73.81	-74.84	-75.89
Inventories	-	-948.78	416.31	-434.07	111.06	-4,289.78	2,599.71	-101.32	-102.74	-104.18	-105.64
Accounts Payable	-	-1,549.37	-1,846.49	874.96	2,765.35	1,630.57	-1,428.26	127.24	129.02	130.83	132.66
Capital Expenditure	-	258.84	528.05	808.12	-134.94	871.97	-738.40	39.01	39.56	40.11	40.67
UFCF	3,448.79	3,246.48	4,795.21	4,103.42	7,986.94	3,066.59	6,645.19	5,625.53	5,704.28	5,784.14	5,865.12
WACC
PV UFCF							6,136.47	4,797.18	4,491.96	4,206.16	3,938.54
SUM PV UFCF											34,594.50

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%)	8.29
Free cash flow (t + 1)	6,099.73
Terminal Value	142,184.75
Present Value of Terminal Value	95,479.74

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value	130,074.25
Net Debt	25,290.30
Equity Value	104,783.94
Shares Outstanding	526.00
Equity Value Per Share	199.21

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