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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Morgan Stanley

Morgan Stanley (MS)

Financial Services

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 32,493.0034,273.6235,154.4534,630.6537,944.8040,107.6541,860.3643,689.6645,598.8947,591.5749,671.32
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 5,345.104,537.839,758.8710,441.1412,032.3012,942.7410,573.9311,036.0111,518.2812,021.6312,546.97
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 3,834.173,375.958,324.578,706.1410,279.2511,097.798,736.269,118.039,516.499,932.3610,366.40
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 1,510.921,161.881,434.301,735.001,753.051,844.951,837.671,917.982,001.792,089.272,180.57
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash --92,181.99115,278.50104,306.46111,078.15120,026.20125,271.35130,745.71136,459.30142,422.57
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 57,103.2048,959.8645,405.4946,460.4856,188.6653,299.0660,199.3862,830.0965,575.7768,441.4371,432.32
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories -----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 157,126.40181,067.52186,624.42190,513.58191,511.20179,557.95212,462.25221,746.85231,437.18241,550.99252,106.77
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -1,315.97-990.51-1,374.54-1,274.41-1,627.83-1,865.01-1,636.74-1,708.27-1,782.92-1,860.83-1,942.15
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 48.07
Diluted Shares Outstanding 1,708.00
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 21.17
After-tax Cost of Debt -1.01
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 12.13
Total Debt 176,876.00
Total Equity 82,103.56
Total Capital 258,979.56
Debt Weighting 68.30
Equity Weighting 31.70
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 32,493.0034,273.6235,154.4534,630.6537,944.8040,107.6541,860.3643,689.6645,598.8947,591.5749,671.32
EBITDA 5,345.104,537.839,758.8710,441.1412,032.3012,942.7410,573.9311,036.0111,518.2812,021.6312,546.97
EBIT 3,834.173,375.958,324.578,706.1410,279.2511,097.798,736.269,118.039,516.499,932.3610,366.40
Tax Rate 23.53%-2.67%26.42%31.32%40.55%21.17%23.39%23.39%23.39%23.39%23.39%
EBIAT 2,932.133,465.926,125.215,979.796,111.158,747.836,693.136,985.627,290.897,609.517,942.04
Depreciation 1,510.921,161.881,434.301,735.001,753.051,844.951,837.671,917.982,001.792,089.272,180.57
Accounts Receivable -8,143.343,554.38-1,054.99-9,728.182,889.60-6,900.32-2,630.71-2,745.68-2,865.66-2,990.89
Inventories -----------
Accounts Payable -23,941.125,556.903,889.16997.62-11,953.2532,904.299,284.609,690.3410,113.8010,555.78
Capital Expenditure --325.46384.03-100.13353.42237.17-228.2771.5374.6577.9181.32
UFCF 4,443.0636,386.7917,054.8310,448.82-512.941,766.3134,306.5115,629.0116,312.0017,024.8317,768.82
WACC
PV UFCF 32,200.5913,769.1213,488.6713,213.9312,944.79
SUM PV UFCF 117,818.20

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.54
Free cash flow (t + 1) 18,479.57
Terminal Value 727,542.17
Present Value of Terminal Value 530,022.99

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 647,841.19
Net Debt 65,797.85
Equity Value 582,043.34
Shares Outstanding 1,708.00
Equity Value Per Share 340.77