Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

MSCI Inc (MSCI)
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Projected | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected |
Revenue | 913.36 | 996.66 | 1,075.00 | 1,150.68 | 1,274.15 | 1,433.93 | 1,569.58 | 1,718.06 | 1,880.59 | 2,058.49 | 2,253.22 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (%) | |||||||||||
EBITDA | 442.25 | 499.83 | 483.32 | 568.90 | 662.94 | 848.60 | 795.78 | 871.06 | 953.46 | 1,043.65 | 1,142.38 |
EBITDA (%) | |||||||||||
EBIT | 361.78 | 425.28 | 405.49 | 487.54 | 582.92 | 762.99 | 683.71 | 748.39 | 819.18 | 896.68 | 981.50 |
EBIT (%) | |||||||||||
Depreciation | 80.47 | 74.55 | 77.83 | 81.35 | 80.02 | 85.61 | 112.07 | 122.67 | 134.27 | 146.98 | 160.88 |
Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Projected | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected |
Total Cash | 358.40 | 508.80 | 777.66 | 791.78 | 889.48 | 904.23 | 953.05 | 1,043.20 | 1,141.89 | 1,249.92 | 1,368.16 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total Cash (%) | |||||||||||
Account Receivables | 169.52 | 178.70 | 208.23 | 221.51 | 327.58 | 473.48 | 350.17 | 383.30 | 419.56 | 459.25 | 502.69 |
Account Receivables (%) | |||||||||||
Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Inventories (%) | |||||||||||
Accounts Payable | 1.19 | 2.79 | 2.47 | 0.58 | 1.66 | 3.87 | 2.83 | 3.09 | 3.39 | 3.71 | 4.06 |
Accounts Payable (%) | |||||||||||
Capital Expenditure | -43.48 | -50.83 | -49.13 | -42.58 | -48.80 | -48.90 | -66.39 | -72.67 | -79.55 | -87.07 | -95.31 |
Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
Share price | $ 259.79 |
---|---|
Diluted Shares Outstanding | 87.18 |
Cost of Debt | |
Tax Rate | 19.37 |
After-tax Cost of Debt | -0.92 |
Risk-Free Rate | |
Market Risk Premium | |
Cost of Equity | 11.79 |
Total Debt | 2,575.50 |
Total Equity | 22,648.23 |
Total Capital | 25,223.73 |
Debt Weighting | 10.21 |
Equity Weighting | 89.79 |
Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Projected | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected |
Revenue | 913.36 | 996.66 | 1,075.00 | 1,150.68 | 1,274.15 | 1,433.93 | 1,569.58 | 1,718.06 | 1,880.59 | 2,058.49 | 2,253.22 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EBITDA | 442.25 | 499.83 | 483.32 | 568.90 | 662.94 | 848.60 | 795.78 | 871.06 | 953.46 | 1,043.65 | 1,142.38 |
EBIT | 361.78 | 425.28 | 405.49 | 487.54 | 582.92 | 762.99 | 683.71 | 748.39 | 819.18 | 896.68 | 981.50 |
Tax Rate | 33.66% | 27.80% | 34.83% | 32.41% | 34.90% | 19.37% | 30.49% | 30.49% | 30.49% | 30.49% | 30.49% |
EBIAT | 240.01 | 307.05 | 264.27 | 329.53 | 379.51 | 615.20 | 475.22 | 520.17 | 569.38 | 623.25 | 682.21 |
Depreciation | 80.47 | 74.55 | 77.83 | 81.35 | 80.02 | 85.61 | 112.07 | 122.67 | 134.27 | 146.98 | 160.88 |
Accounts Receivable | - | -9.18 | -29.53 | -13.28 | -106.08 | -145.90 | 123.31 | -33.13 | -36.26 | -39.69 | -43.44 |
Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Accounts Payable | - | 1.60 | -0.32 | -1.90 | 1.08 | 2.22 | -1.05 | 0.27 | 0.29 | 0.32 | 0.35 |
Capital Expenditure | - | 7.35 | -1.70 | -6.55 | 6.22 | 0.10 | 17.50 | 6.28 | 6.87 | 7.53 | 8.24 |
UFCF | 320.48 | 381.37 | 310.55 | 389.16 | 360.75 | 557.22 | 727.05 | 616.27 | 674.56 | 738.38 | 808.23 |
WACC | |||||||||||
PV UFCF | 655.00 | 500.18 | 493.24 | 486.39 | 479.64 | ||||||
SUM PV UFCF | 2,991.46 |
Terminal Value
Growth in perpetuity method: | |
---|---|
Long-term growth rate | |
WACC (%) | 11.00 |
Free cash flow (t + 1) | 840.56 |
Terminal Value | 12,007.98 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | 7,126.15 |
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value | 10,117.61 |
---|---|
Net Debt | 1,671.27 |
Equity Value | 8,446.35 |
Shares Outstanding | 87.18 |
Equity Value Per Share | 96.89 |