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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


MSCI Inc

MSCI Inc (MSCI)

Financial Services

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 913.36996.661,075.001,150.681,274.151,433.931,569.581,718.061,880.592,058.492,253.22
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 442.25499.83483.32568.90662.94848.60795.78871.06953.461,043.651,142.38
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 361.78425.28405.49487.54582.92762.99683.71748.39819.18896.68981.50
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 80.4774.5577.8381.3580.0285.61112.07122.67134.27146.98160.88
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 358.40508.80777.66791.78889.48904.23953.051,043.201,141.891,249.921,368.16
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 169.52178.70208.23221.51327.58473.48350.17383.30419.56459.25502.69
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories -----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 1.192.792.470.581.663.872.833.093.393.714.06
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -43.48-50.83-49.13-42.58-48.80-48.90-66.39-72.67-79.55-87.07-95.31
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 259.79
Diluted Shares Outstanding 87.18
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 19.37
After-tax Cost of Debt -0.92
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.79
Total Debt 2,575.50
Total Equity 22,648.23
Total Capital 25,223.73
Debt Weighting 10.21
Equity Weighting 89.79
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 913.36996.661,075.001,150.681,274.151,433.931,569.581,718.061,880.592,058.492,253.22
EBITDA 442.25499.83483.32568.90662.94848.60795.78871.06953.461,043.651,142.38
EBIT 361.78425.28405.49487.54582.92762.99683.71748.39819.18896.68981.50
Tax Rate 33.66%27.80%34.83%32.41%34.90%19.37%30.49%30.49%30.49%30.49%30.49%
EBIAT 240.01307.05264.27329.53379.51615.20475.22520.17569.38623.25682.21
Depreciation 80.4774.5577.8381.3580.0285.61112.07122.67134.27146.98160.88
Accounts Receivable --9.18-29.53-13.28-106.08-145.90123.31-33.13-36.26-39.69-43.44
Inventories -----------
Accounts Payable -1.60-0.32-1.901.082.22-1.050.270.290.320.35
Capital Expenditure -7.35-1.70-6.556.220.1017.506.286.877.538.24
UFCF 320.48381.37310.55389.16360.75557.22727.05616.27674.56738.38808.23
WACC
PV UFCF 655.00500.18493.24486.39479.64
SUM PV UFCF 2,991.46

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 11.00
Free cash flow (t + 1) 840.56
Terminal Value 12,007.98
Present Value of Terminal Value 7,126.15

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 10,117.61
Net Debt 1,671.27
Equity Value 8,446.35
Shares Outstanding 87.18
Equity Value Per Share 96.89