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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


MSCI Inc

MSCI Inc (MSCI)

Financial Services

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 913.36996.661,075.001,150.681,274.151,433.931,569.581,718.061,880.592,058.492,253.22
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 442.25499.83483.32568.90662.94848.60802.84878.79961.921,052.921,152.52
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 361.78425.28405.49487.54582.92762.99695.95761.79833.85912.73999.08
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 80.4774.5577.8381.3580.0285.61106.89117.00128.07140.18153.44
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 358.40508.80777.66791.78889.48904.231,020.541,117.081,222.761,338.431,465.05
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 169.52178.70208.23221.51327.58473.48361.94396.18433.66474.69519.59
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories -----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 1.192.792.470.581.663.872.983.263.573.914.28
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -43.48-50.83-49.13-42.58-48.80-48.90-64.67-70.78-77.48-84.81-92.83
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 222.73
Diluted Shares Outstanding 89.70
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 19.37
After-tax Cost of Debt -0.92
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.79
Total Debt 2,575.50
Total Equity 19,979.10
Total Capital 22,554.61
Debt Weighting 11.42
Equity Weighting 88.58
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 913.36996.661,075.001,150.681,274.151,433.931,569.581,718.061,880.592,058.492,253.22
EBITDA 442.25499.83483.32568.90662.94848.60802.84878.79961.921,052.921,152.52
EBIT 361.78425.28405.49487.54582.92762.99695.95761.79833.85912.73999.08
Tax Rate 33.66%27.80%34.83%32.41%34.90%19.37%30.49%30.49%30.49%30.49%30.49%
EBIAT 240.01307.05264.27329.53379.51615.20483.73529.49579.58634.41694.42
Depreciation 80.4774.5577.8381.3580.0285.61106.89117.00128.07140.18153.44
Accounts Receivable --9.18-29.53-13.28-106.08-145.90111.54-34.24-37.48-41.02-44.91
Inventories -----------
Accounts Payable -1.60-0.32-1.901.082.22-0.890.280.310.340.37
Capital Expenditure -7.35-1.70-6.556.220.1015.776.126.707.338.02
UFCF 320.48381.37310.55389.16360.75557.22717.04618.65677.17741.23811.35
WACC
PV UFCF 646.56503.02496.48490.04483.67
SUM PV UFCF 3,006.85

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 10.90
Free cash flow (t + 1) 843.81
Terminal Value 12,229.11
Present Value of Terminal Value 7,290.16

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 10,297.01
Net Debt 1,671.27
Equity Value 8,625.74
Shares Outstanding 89.70
Equity Value Per Share 96.16

Results Unlevered DCF

Wacc / Long-term Growth -4 (%)-3 (%)-2 (%)-1 (%)0 (%)1 (%)2 (%)3 (%)4 (%)
12.90 (%) 58.84 Sell 63.03 Sell 67.99 Sell 73.95 Sell 81.25 Sell 90.39 Sell 102.19 Sell 117.99 Sell 140.24 Sell
12.40 (%) 56.24 Sell 60.04 Sell 64.51 Sell 69.83 Sell 76.29 Sell 84.29 Sell 94.45 Sell 107.78 Sell 126.05 Sell
11.90 (%) 53.85 Sell 57.31 Sell 61.35 Sell 66.13 Sell 71.88 Sell 78.92 Sell 87.73 Sell 99.11 Sell 114.34 Sell
11.40 (%) 51.66 Sell 54.81 Sell 58.48 Sell 62.79 Sell 67.92 Sell 74.15 Sell 81.86 Sell 91.66 Sell 104.51 Sell
10.90 (%) 49.63 Sell 52.52 Sell 55.85 Sell 59.75 Sell 64.36 Sell 69.90 Sell 76.69 Sell 85.19 Sell 96.16 Sell
10.40 (%) 47.75 Sell 50.40 Sell 53.45 Sell 56.98 Sell 61.14 Sell 66.09 Sell 72.10 Sell 79.54 Sell 88.98 Sell
9.90 (%) 46.02 Sell 48.45 Sell 51.24 Sell 54.45 Sell 58.21 Sell 62.66 Sell 68.01 Sell 74.55 Sell 82.76 Sell
9.40 (%) 44.40 Sell 46.65 Sell 49.20 Sell 52.14 Sell 55.55 Sell 59.56 Sell 64.34 Sell 70.13 Sell 77.31 Sell
8.90 (%) 42.90 Sell 44.97 Sell 47.32 Sell 50.01 Sell 53.11 Sell 56.74 Sell 61.03 Sell 66.19 Sell 72.51 Sell