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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Mettler-Toledo International Inc.

Mettler-Toledo International Inc. (MTD)

Healthcare

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 2,378.972,486.032,395.532,508.362,725.092,935.743,064.613,199.153,339.593,486.203,639.25
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 484.83532.26554.81601.00683.18770.92716.20747.64780.46814.73850.49
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 425.60469.36490.84532.27607.15686.38633.76661.58690.63720.95752.60
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 59.2462.9063.9668.7376.0384.5582.4486.0689.8493.7897.90
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 111.8185.2798.94158.78148.79178.20153.84160.60167.65175.01182.69
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 466.75435.55411.31455.02528.67535.48562.36587.04612.82639.72667.80
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 210.30204.60214.40221.99255.34268.91272.75284.72297.22310.27323.89
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 146.07145.93142.06146.49167.59196.69186.94195.15203.72212.66221.99
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -82.07-88.75-81.45-123.41-115.54-134.46-123.50-128.93-134.59-140.49-146.66
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 675.79
Diluted Shares Outstanding 25.78
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 21.36
After-tax Cost of Debt -1.02
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 13.14
Total Debt 985.02
Total Equity 17,422.76
Total Capital 18,407.78
Debt Weighting 5.35
Equity Weighting 94.65
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 2,378.972,486.032,395.532,508.362,725.092,935.743,064.613,199.153,339.593,486.203,639.25
EBITDA 484.83532.26554.81601.00683.18770.92716.20747.64780.46814.73850.49
EBIT 425.60469.36490.84532.27607.15686.38633.76661.58690.63720.95752.60
Tax Rate 23.99%23.99%23.87%23.77%34.52%21.36%25.25%25.25%25.25%25.25%25.25%
EBIAT 323.49356.75373.70405.78397.53539.75473.74494.53516.24538.91562.56
Depreciation 59.2462.9063.9668.7376.0384.5582.4486.0689.8493.7897.90
Accounts Receivable -31.2024.24-43.70-73.65-6.81-26.88-24.69-25.77-26.90-28.08
Inventories -5.70-9.80-7.59-33.35-13.57-3.84-11.97-12.50-13.05-13.62
Accounts Payable --0.14-3.874.4321.1029.10-9.758.218.578.949.34
Capital Expenditure -6.68-7.3041.96-7.8718.91-10.955.425.665.916.17
UFCF 382.73463.09440.92469.61379.80651.93504.75557.56582.03607.59634.26
WACC
PV UFCF 397.76390.03361.43334.93310.37
SUM PV UFCF 2,822.32

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 12.65
Free cash flow (t + 1) 659.63
Terminal Value 7,625.77
Present Value of Terminal Value 4,203.66

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 7,025.98
Net Debt 806.82
Equity Value 6,219.16
Shares Outstanding 25.78
Equity Value Per Share 241.23

Results Unlevered DCF

Wacc / Long-term Growth -4 (%)-3 (%)-2 (%)-1 (%)0 (%)1 (%)2 (%)3 (%)4 (%)
14.65 (%) 175.37 Sell 183.58 Sell 193.08 Sell 204.22 Sell 217.45 Sell 233.41 Sell 253.08 Sell 277.88 Sell 310.14 Sell
14.15 (%) 170.07 Sell 177.59 Sell 186.25 Sell 196.34 Sell 208.24 Sell 222.48 Sell 239.83 Sell 261.45 Sell 289.11 Sell
13.65 (%) 165.16 Sell 172.06 Sell 179.98 Sell 189.15 Sell 199.89 Sell 212.65 Sell 228.06 Sell 247.02 Sell 270.95 Sell
13.15 (%) 160.60 Sell 166.96 Sell 174.21 Sell 182.57 Sell 192.30 Sell 203.78 Sell 217.52 Sell 234.27 Sell 255.12 Sell
12.65 (%) 156.37 Sell 162.23 Sell 168.89 Sell 176.53 Sell 185.38 Sell 195.75 Sell 208.06 Sell 222.93 Sell 241.23 Sell
12.15 (%) 152.43 Sell 157.85 Sell 163.98 Sell 170.98 Sell 179.05 Sell 188.44 Sell 199.52 Sell 212.78 Sell 228.94 Sell
11.65 (%) 148.75 Sell 153.77 Sell 159.43 Sell 165.86 Sell 173.23 Sell 181.77 Sell 191.78 Sell 203.66 Sell 218.01 Sell
11.15 (%) 145.32 Sell 149.97 Sell 155.20 Sell 161.12 Sell 167.88 Sell 175.67 Sell 184.74 Sell 195.44 Sell 208.24 Sell
10.65 (%) 142.10 Sell 146.43 Sell 151.27 Sell 156.74 Sell 162.95 Sell 170.07 Sell 178.32 Sell 187.98 Sell 199.45 Sell