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Major Indexes

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


National HealthCare Corporation

National HealthCare Corporation (NHC)

$74.52
3.64 (+5.14%)

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 735.84829.29864.86880.78919.88980.411,038.941,100.971,166.701,236.351,310.16
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 100.66102.42104.2299.5396.7797.94121.04128.26135.92144.03152.63
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 72.1168.0067.1160.5154.0956.0876.5781.1485.9991.1296.56
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 28.5534.4237.1039.0242.6841.8644.4747.1249.9352.9256.07
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 186.68202.26154.38164.35198.24183.44219.11232.19246.06260.75276.31
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 85.5078.8784.0682.5386.7597.26103.17109.33115.85122.77130.10
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 7.147.137.617.497.187.458.839.369.9210.5111.14
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 13.0215.8420.1518.5816.0119.8020.5721.8023.1024.4825.94
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure 43.4153.3258.3862.6232.3829.8056.7360.1163.7067.5071.53
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 74.52
Diluted Shares Outstanding 15.24
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 21.26
After-tax Cost of Debt -1.01
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 4.96
Total Debt 55.00
Total Equity 1,135.45
Total Capital 1,190.45
Debt Weighting 4.62
Equity Weighting 95.38
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 735.84829.29864.86880.78919.88980.411,038.941,100.971,166.701,236.351,310.16
EBITDA 100.66102.42104.2299.5396.7797.94121.04128.26135.92144.03152.63
EBIT 72.1168.0067.1160.5154.0956.0876.5781.1485.9991.1296.56
Tax Rate 36.76%37.36%37.68%36.99%24.61%21.26%32.44%32.44%32.44%32.44%32.44%
EBIAT 45.6042.6041.8338.1340.7844.1651.7354.8258.0961.5665.23
Depreciation 28.5534.4237.1039.0242.6841.8644.4747.1249.9352.9256.07
Accounts Receivable -6.64-5.201.54-4.22-10.51-5.91-6.16-6.53-6.92-7.33
Inventories -0.01-0.480.120.31-0.28-1.38-0.53-0.56-0.59-0.63
Accounts Payable -2.824.31-1.57-2.583.800.771.231.301.381.46
Capital Expenditure --9.91-5.06-4.2430.242.58-26.92-3.39-3.59-3.80-4.03
UFCF 74.1576.5772.5172.99107.2281.6162.7593.0998.65104.54110.78
WACC
PV UFCF 54.3376.8277.5978.3779.15
SUM PV UFCF 710.99

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 4.92
Free cash flow (t + 1) 115.21
Terminal Value 12,523.20
Present Value of Terminal Value 9,849.72

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 10,560.72
Net Debt -128.44
Equity Value 10,689.15
Shares Outstanding 15.24
Equity Value Per Share 701.53