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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


NVIDIA Corporation

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)

Technology

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 4,280.164,129.934,682.105,010.316,910.229,714.3911,716.5313,981.3316,683.9219,908.9223,757.32
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 891.56759.081,021.17987.032,149.773,456.384,215.613,663.114,371.195,216.146,224.42
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 665.14519.96801.11790.131,962.503,257.233,953.163,130.423,735.534,457.615,319.26
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 226.42239.12220.06196.91187.27199.14262.45532.69635.66758.53905.15
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 3,728.024,671.774,623.105,036.876,798.287,108.027,422.4212,671.2815,120.6418,043.4621,531.26
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 454.12426.21473.83505.04825.771,264.811,423.561,563.111,865.262,225.822,656.07
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 412.61387.80483.19417.86793.98795.611,574.701,414.911,688.412,014.782,404.24
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 356.54324.20293.10296.11485.10596.46510.84915.781,092.801,304.031,556.10
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -183.19-230.04-101.13-79.16-169.30-590.63-599.89-543.87-649.00-774.46-924.16
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 171.21
Diluted Shares Outstanding 625.00
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -6.29
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.36
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 17.49
Total Debt 1,988.00
Total Equity 107,006.25
Total Capital 108,994.25
Debt Weighting 1.82
Equity Weighting 98.18
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 4,280.164,129.934,682.105,010.316,910.229,714.3911,716.5313,981.3316,683.9219,908.9223,757.32
EBITDA 891.56759.081,021.17987.032,149.773,456.384,215.613,663.114,371.195,216.146,224.42
EBIT 665.14519.96801.11790.131,962.503,257.233,953.163,130.423,735.534,457.615,319.26
Tax Rate 15.03%13.73%16.42%17.36%12.55%4.66%-6.29%10.49%10.49%10.49%10.49%
EBIAT 565.17448.59669.53652.941,716.293,105.384,201.752,801.903,343.513,989.814,761.04
Depreciation 226.42239.12220.06196.91187.27199.14262.45532.69635.66758.53905.15
Accounts Receivable -27.92-47.62-31.21-320.73-439.04-158.74-139.55-302.15-360.56-430.25
Inventories -24.81-95.3965.33-376.12-1.62-779.09159.79-273.50-326.37-389.46
Accounts Payable --32.34-31.103.01188.99111.37-85.62404.94177.02211.24252.07
Capital Expenditure -46.85-128.90-21.9790.14421.339.25-56.01105.13125.45149.70
UFCF 791.59754.95586.58865.011,485.823,396.563,449.993,703.753,685.674,398.105,248.26
WACC
PV UFCF 2,297.161,949.471,983.882,018.90
SUM PV UFCF 8,875.20

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 17.26
Free cash flow (t + 1) 5,458.19
Terminal Value 41,162.80
Present Value of Terminal Value 18,567.59

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 27,442.79
Net Debt -5,434.42
Equity Value 32,877.21
Shares Outstanding 625.00
Equity Value Per Share 52.60

Results Unlevered DCF

Wacc / Long-term Growth -4 (%)-3 (%)-2 (%)-1 (%)0 (%)1 (%)2 (%)3 (%)4 (%)
19.26 (%) 43.47 Sell 44.82 Sell 46.33 Sell 48.03 Sell 49.95 Sell 52.13 Sell 54.65 Sell 57.58 Sell 61.02 Sell
18.76 (%) 42.52 Sell 43.78 Sell 45.19 Sell 46.76 Sell 48.53 Sell 50.54 Sell 52.84 Sell 55.50 Sell 58.62 Sell
18.26 (%) 41.63 Sell 42.81 Sell 44.11 Sell 45.57 Sell 47.21 Sell 49.06 Sell 51.17 Sell 53.61 Sell 56.43 Sell
17.76 (%) 40.79 Sell 41.89 Sell 43.11 Sell 44.47 Sell 45.98 Sell 47.69 Sell 49.64 Sell 51.86 Sell 54.43 Sell
17.26 (%) 40.00 Sell 41.03 Sell 42.17 Sell 43.43 Sell 44.84 Sell 46.42 Sell 48.21 Sell 50.25 Sell 52.60 Sell
16.76 (%) 39.25 Sell 40.22 Sell 41.29 Sell 42.46 Sell 43.77 Sell 45.24 Sell 46.89 Sell 48.77 Sell 50.92 Sell
16.26 (%) 38.55 Sell 39.46 Sell 40.46 Sell 41.56 Sell 42.78 Sell 44.14 Sell 45.67 Sell 47.40 Sell 49.37 Sell
15.76 (%) 37.89 Sell 38.74 Sell 39.68 Sell 40.70 Sell 41.84 Sell 43.11 Sell 44.53 Sell 46.13 Sell 47.94 Sell
15.26 (%) 37.26 Sell 38.06 Sell 38.94 Sell 39.90 Sell 40.97 Sell 42.15 Sell 43.46 Sell 44.94 Sell 46.62 Sell