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Major Indexes

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


NVR Inc.

NVR Inc. (NVR)

$2871.62
-69.85 (-2.37%)

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 4,211.274,444.575,158.815,822.246,305.487,163.037,971.028,870.159,870.7010,984.1212,223.13
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 414.81468.01599.97643.94822.23915.44915.071,018.291,133.161,260.981,403.21
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 401.33450.24578.30621.81799.54895.38886.38986.361,097.621,221.431,359.21
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 13.4817.7821.6722.1222.7020.0628.7031.9335.5339.5444.00
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 866.26545.35425.09396.49667.75732.06912.681,015.631,130.201,257.681,399.55
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 9.6910.2211.3519.2120.1818.6220.7223.0625.6628.5631.78
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 790.88916.031,079.221,155.131,297.671,313.701,582.251,760.721,959.332,180.352,426.29
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 181.51204.45227.50250.94261.68244.26334.78372.55414.57461.33513.37
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure 18.9531.5618.0622.1220.1819.3433.4837.2541.4646.1351.34
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 2,871.62
Diluted Shares Outstanding 4.09
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 16.94
After-tax Cost of Debt -0.80
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.13
Total Debt -
Total Equity 11,750.67
Total Capital 11,750.67
Debt Weighting 0.00
Equity Weighting 100.00
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 4,211.274,444.575,158.815,822.246,305.487,163.037,971.028,870.159,870.7010,984.1212,223.13
EBITDA 414.81468.01599.97643.94822.23915.44915.071,018.291,133.161,260.981,403.21
EBIT 401.33450.24578.30621.81799.54895.38886.38986.361,097.621,221.431,359.21
Tax Rate 36.36%37.90%36.52%35.73%36.53%16.94%33.33%33.33%33.33%33.33%33.33%
EBIAT 255.43279.57367.11399.63507.45743.74590.95657.61731.79814.33906.19
Depreciation 13.4817.7821.6722.1222.7020.0628.7031.9335.5339.5444.00
Accounts Receivable --0.54-1.13-7.86-0.961.55-2.10-2.34-2.60-2.89-3.22
Inventories --125.15-163.20-75.91-142.54-16.03-268.55-178.48-198.61-221.01-245.94
Accounts Payable -22.9423.0523.4310.74-17.4290.5237.7642.0246.7652.04
Capital Expenditure --12.6113.50-4.071.950.84-14.14-3.78-4.20-4.68-5.20
UFCF 268.90182.00261.01357.35399.34732.74425.38542.71603.93672.06747.86
WACC
PV UFCF 425.38506.59526.22546.60567.78
SUM PV UFCF 3,249.40

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.13
Free cash flow (t + 1) 777.78
Terminal Value 24,849.18
Present Value of Terminal Value 17,609.89

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 20,859.29
Net Debt -732.06
Equity Value 21,591.35
Shares Outstanding 4.09
Equity Value Per Share 5,276.48