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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


NVR Inc.

NVR Inc. (NVR)

Consumer Cyclical

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 4,134.484,375.115,065.065,708.836,175.247,003.967,787.008,657.599,625.5110,701.6411,898.08
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 454.38494.39648.33705.61893.561,005.07989.731,100.381,223.401,360.181,512.25
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 441.15476.89626.55683.35870.71984.76960.921,068.351,187.791,320.581,468.22
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 13.2317.5021.7822.2622.8520.3128.8132.0335.6139.6044.02
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash --449.78415.03688.54731.91735.09817.28908.651,010.231,123.18
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 9.5110.0611.6518.8419.7618.9121.0223.3825.9928.8932.12
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 738.42869.331,006.431,092.101,246.161,253.011,490.431,657.061,842.322,048.292,277.29
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 203.42230.57259.84283.73294.56288.56378.45420.76467.80520.10578.25
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -18.61-30.63-17.73-21.12-19.14-18.21-31.93-35.50-39.46-43.88-48.78
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 3,497.8
Diluted Shares Outstanding 4.09
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 16.94
After-tax Cost of Debt -0.80
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.88
Total Debt 597.68
Total Equity 14,313.00
Total Capital 14,910.68
Debt Weighting 4.01
Equity Weighting 95.99
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 4,134.484,375.115,065.065,708.836,175.247,003.967,787.008,657.599,625.5110,701.6411,898.08
EBITDA 454.38494.39648.33705.61893.561,005.07989.731,100.381,223.401,360.181,512.25
EBIT 441.15476.89626.55683.35870.71984.76960.921,068.351,187.791,320.581,468.22
Tax Rate 36.36%37.90%36.52%35.73%36.53%16.94%33.33%33.33%33.33%33.33%33.33%
EBIAT 280.77296.12397.74439.18552.63817.98640.65712.27791.90880.44978.87
Depreciation 13.2317.5021.7822.2622.8520.3128.8132.0335.6139.6044.02
Accounts Receivable --0.55-1.59-7.19-0.920.85-2.11-2.35-2.61-2.91-3.23
Inventories --130.92-137.09-85.67-154.06-6.84-237.42-166.63-185.26-205.97-229.00
Accounts Payable -27.1529.2723.8910.83-6.0089.8942.3147.0452.3058.15
Capital Expenditure -12.02-12.903.39-1.98-0.9313.723.573.974.414.91
UFCF 294.00221.33297.21395.87429.34825.37533.52621.20690.65767.87853.72
WACC
PV UFCF 459.70496.85512.76529.18546.13
SUM PV UFCF 3,572.73

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.73
Free cash flow (t + 1) 887.86
Terminal Value 23,803.35
Present Value of Terminal Value 16,404.19

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 19,976.92
Net Debt -134.23
Equity Value 20,111.15
Shares Outstanding 4.09
Equity Value Per Share 4,914.75

Results Unlevered DCF

Wacc / Long-term Growth -4 (%)-3 (%)-2 (%)-1 (%)0 (%)1 (%)2 (%)3 (%)4 (%)
9.73 (%) 2,463.83 Sell 2,660.37 Sell 2,907.76 Sell 3,228.68 Sell 3,661.61 Buy 4,277.59 Buy 5,223.86 Buy 6,863.37 Buy 10,398.26 Buy
9.23 (%) 2,353.14 Sell 2,526.64 Sell 2,742.31 Sell 3,017.64 Sell 3,381.35 Sell 3,884.16 Buy 4,624.70 Buy 5,823.77 Buy 8,098.25 Buy
8.73 (%) 2,253.68 Sell 2,407.68 Sell 2,596.96 Sell 2,835.21 Sell 3,144.27 Sell 3,561.20 Buy 4,154.42 Buy 5,065.72 Buy 6,644.64 Buy
8.23 (%) 2,163.93 Sell 2,301.29 Sell 2,468.41 Sell 2,676.14 Sell 2,941.34 Sell 3,291.68 Sell 3,775.99 Buy 4,489.29 Buy 5,644.26 Buy
7.73 (%) 2,082.61 Sell 2,205.68 Sell 2,354.04 Sell 2,536.39 Sell 2,765.92 Sell 3,063.65 Sell 3,465.32 Sell 4,036.82 Buy 4,914.75 Buy
7.23 (%) 2,008.67 Sell 2,119.38 Sell 2,251.74 Sell 2,412.77 Sell 2,612.93 Sell 2,868.46 Sell 3,206.03 Sell 3,672.69 Buy 4,359.99 Buy
6.73 (%) 1,941.22 Sell 2,041.19 Sell 2,159.79 Sell 2,302.77 Sell 2,478.50 Sell 2,699.70 Sell 2,986.64 Sell 3,373.73 Sell 3,924.49 Buy
6.23 (%) 1,879.50 Sell 1,970.08 Sell 2,076.79 Sell 2,204.36 Sell 2,359.58 Sell 2,552.51 Sell 2,798.82 Sell 3,124.19 Sell 3,573.99 Buy
5.73 (%) 1,822.87 Sell 1,905.20 Sell 2,001.57 Sell 2,115.91 Sell 2,253.75 Sell 2,423.16 Sell 2,636.41 Sell 2,913.03 Sell 3,286.20 Sell