Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

NVR, Inc. (NVR)

$ 5009.68
+43.15 (+0.87%)

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Revenue 5,830.116,313.697,175.277,400.817,545.858,056.028,600.699,182.189,802.9810,465.75
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 705.67893.761,004.981,071.991,140.901,125.761,201.871,283.121,369.881,462.49
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 683.40871.10984.811,051.171,118.901,100.061,174.431,253.841,338.611,429.11
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 22.2722.6720.1720.8221.9925.7027.4329.2931.2733.38
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Total Cash 395.41666.79711.881,140.302,778.271,280.761,367.351,459.801,558.491,663.86
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 18.9420.0318.6418.2818.3022.4223.9325.5527.2829.12
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1,092.101,246.201,253.111,347.291,709.081,559.461,664.891,777.451,897.632,025.93
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 283.61294.80288.57306.97402.59371.20396.29423.09451.69482.23
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -22.37-20.27-19.66-22.70-16.12-24.15-25.79-27.53-29.39-31.38
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 5,009.68
Beta 1.037
Diluted Shares Outstanding 3.69
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 16.40
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.18%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.715
Total Debt 1,607.73
Total Equity 18,495.74
Total Capital 20,103.47
Debt Weighting 8.00
Equity Weighting 92.00
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Revenue 5,830.116,313.697,175.277,400.817,545.858,056.028,600.699,182.189,802.9810,465.75
EBITDA 705.67893.761,004.981,071.991,140.901,125.761,201.871,283.121,369.881,462.49
EBIT 683.40871.10984.811,051.171,118.901,100.061,174.431,253.841,338.611,429.11
Tax Rate 35.73%36.53%16.94%14.36%16.40%23.99%23.99%23.99%23.99%23.99%
EBIAT 439.21552.87818.03900.28935.42836.15892.68953.031,017.471,086.26
Depreciation 22.2722.6720.1720.8221.9925.7027.4329.2931.2733.38
Accounts Receivable --1.091.390.36-0.02-4.12-1.52-1.62-1.73-1.84
Inventories --154.10-6.91-94.18-361.79149.62-105.43-112.56-120.17-128.30
Accounts Payable -11.19-6.2218.4095.61-31.3925.1026.7928.6030.54
Capital Expenditure -22.37-20.27-19.66-22.70-16.12-24.15-25.79-27.53-29.39-31.38
UFCF 439.11411.27806.78822.98675.09951.81812.47867.40926.05988.66
WACC
PV UFCF 863.79669.15648.33628.15608.61
SUM PV UFCF 3,418.03

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 10.19
Free cash flow (t + 1) 1,028.21
Terminal Value 16,610.76
Present Value of Terminal Value 10,225.36

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 13,643.39
Net Debt -1,170.53
Equity Value 14,813.92
Shares Outstanding 3.69
Equity Value Per Share 4,012.44