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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


NVR Inc.

NVR Inc. (NVR)

Consumer Cyclical

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 4,134.484,375.115,065.065,708.836,175.247,003.967,787.008,657.599,625.5110,701.6411,898.08
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 454.38494.39648.33705.61893.561,005.07989.731,100.381,223.401,360.181,512.25
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 441.15476.89626.55683.35870.71984.76960.921,068.351,187.791,320.581,468.22
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 13.2317.5021.7822.2622.8520.3128.8132.0335.6139.6044.02
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash --449.78415.03688.54731.91735.09817.28908.651,010.231,123.18
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 9.5110.0611.6518.8419.7618.9121.0223.3825.9928.8932.12
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 738.42869.331,006.431,092.101,246.161,253.011,490.431,657.061,842.322,048.292,277.29
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 203.42230.57259.84283.73294.56288.56378.45420.76467.80520.10578.25
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -18.61-30.63-17.73-21.12-19.14-18.21-31.93-35.50-39.46-43.88-48.78
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 3,754.08
Diluted Shares Outstanding 3.63
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 16.94
After-tax Cost of Debt -0.80
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.88
Total Debt 598.00
Total Equity 13,631.06
Total Capital 14,229.06
Debt Weighting 4.20
Equity Weighting 95.80
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 4,134.484,375.115,065.065,708.836,175.247,003.967,787.008,657.599,625.5110,701.6411,898.08
EBITDA 454.38494.39648.33705.61893.561,005.07989.731,100.381,223.401,360.181,512.25
EBIT 441.15476.89626.55683.35870.71984.76960.921,068.351,187.791,320.581,468.22
Tax Rate 36.36%37.90%36.52%35.73%36.53%16.94%33.33%33.33%33.33%33.33%33.33%
EBIAT 280.77296.12397.74439.18552.63817.98640.65712.27791.90880.44978.87
Depreciation 13.2317.5021.7822.2622.8520.3128.8132.0335.6139.6044.02
Accounts Receivable --0.55-1.59-7.19-0.920.85-2.11-2.35-2.61-2.91-3.23
Inventories --130.92-137.09-85.67-154.06-6.84-237.42-166.63-185.26-205.97-229.00
Accounts Payable -27.1529.2723.8910.83-6.0089.8942.3147.0452.3058.15
Capital Expenditure -12.02-12.903.39-1.98-0.9313.723.573.974.414.91
UFCF 294.00221.33297.21395.87429.34825.37533.52621.20690.65767.87853.72
WACC
PV UFCF 495.29535.35552.55570.30588.62
SUM PV UFCF 3,574.88

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.72
Free cash flow (t + 1) 887.86
Terminal Value 23,867.33
Present Value of Terminal Value 16,455.92

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 20,030.80
Net Debt -133.91
Equity Value 20,164.72
Shares Outstanding 3.63
Equity Value Per Share 5,553.49