Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered

NVR, Inc. (NVR)

$ 5281.09
67.81 (+1.30%)

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Revenue 4,216.254,449.515,165.495,830.116,313.697,175.277,400.817,545.858,209.188,930.819,715.8810,569.9611,499.12
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 453.23492.97646.55702.93890.571,001.391,068.091,137.651,066.911,160.701,262.731,373.731,494.49
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 439.84475.36625.02680.67867.90981.221,047.271,115.661,038.951,130.281,229.641,337.731,455.32
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 13.3917.6121.5322.2722.6720.1720.8221.9927.9630.4233.1036.0139.17
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Total Cash 865.58544.94424.33395.41666.79711.881,140.302,778.271,236.331,345.011,463.241,591.871,731.80
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 9.5310.0211.4818.9420.0318.6418.2818.3021.1923.0525.0827.2829.68
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 738.56869.491,006.531,092.101,246.201,253.111,347.291,709.081,573.411,711.731,862.202,025.892,203.98
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 203.46230.42259.73283.61294.80288.57306.97402.59390.66425462.36503.01547.23
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -19.02-31.67-18.28-22.37-20.27-19.66-22.70-16.12-30.95-33.67-36.63-39.85-43.35
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 5,281.09
Beta 1.011
Diluted Shares Outstanding 3.69
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 16.40
After-tax Cost of Debt 4.18%
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.507
Total Debt 1,607.73
Total Equity 19,497.78
Total Capital 21,105.52
Debt Weighting 7.62
Equity Weighting 92.38
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Actual
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
2024
Projected
2025
Projected
Revenue 4,216.254,449.515,165.495,830.116,313.697,175.277,400.817,545.858,209.188,930.819,715.8810,569.9611,499.12
EBITDA 453.23492.97646.55702.93890.571,001.391,068.091,137.651,066.911,160.701,262.731,373.731,494.49
EBIT 439.84475.36625.02680.67867.90981.221,047.271,115.661,038.951,130.281,229.641,337.731,455.32
Tax Rate 36.36%37.90%36.52%35.73%36.53%16.94%14.36%16.40%28.84%28.84%28.84%28.84%28.84%
EBIAT 279.93295.17396.77437.45550.84815.05896.93932.70739.30804.29874.99951.911,035.59
Depreciation 13.3917.6121.5322.2722.6720.1720.8221.9927.9630.4233.1036.0139.17
Accounts Receivable --0.49-1.46-7.46-1.091.390.36-0.02-2.89-1.86-2.03-2.20-2.40
Inventories --130.92-137.04-85.57-154.10-6.91-94.18-361.79135.67-138.31-150.47-163.70-178.09
Accounts Payable -26.9629.3123.8811.19-6.2218.4095.62-11.9234.3437.3640.6444.22
Capital Expenditure -19.02-31.67-18.28-22.37-20.27-19.66-22.70-16.12-30.95-33.67-36.63-39.85-43.35
UFCF 274.31176.66290.83368.21409.24803.80819.64672.37857.17695.21756.32822.81895.14
WACC
PV UFCF 708.15522.04516.20510.44504.73
SUM PV UFCF 3,038.27

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 10.02
Free cash flow (t + 1) 930.95
Terminal Value 15,464.20
Present Value of Terminal Value 9,593.33

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 12,631.60
Net Debt -1,170.53
Equity Value 13,802.13
Shares Outstanding 3.69
Equity Value Per Share 3,738.39