Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
National Western Life Group Inc. (NWLI)
$198.17
1.98 (+1.01%)
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected |
| Revenue | 682.37 | 874.45 | 551.61 | 819.19 | 927.73 | 1,050.66 | 1,189.87 | 1,347.53 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||
| EBITDA | 161.11 | 154.87 | 153.73 | 191.36 | 214.68 | 243.12 | 275.34 | 311.82 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||
| EBIT | 152.85 | 144.55 | 141.49 | 165.15 | 196.59 | 222.63 | 252.13 | 285.54 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||
| Depreciation | 8.26 | 10.32 | 12.25 | 26.21 | 18.09 | 20.49 | 23.20 | 26.28 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2016 Projected | 2017 Projected | 2018 Projected | 2019 Projected | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected |
| Total Cash | 51.25 | 217.65 | 132.00 | 253.54 | 202.43 | 229.25 | 259.63 | 294.03 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||
| Account Receivables | 99.22 | 96.80 | 96.37 | 93.31 | 126.36 | 143.10 | 162.06 | 183.53 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||
| Accounts Payable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | 50.22 | 9.09 | 3.14 | 2.87 | 21.62 | 24.48 | 27.72 | 31.40 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 198.17 |
|---|---|
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 3.44 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 20.31 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | -0.97 |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 9.30 |
| Total Debt | - |
| Total Equity | 680.91 |
| Total Capital | 680.91 |
| Debt Weighting | 0.00 |
| Equity Weighting | 100.00 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected |
| Revenue | 682.37 | 874.45 | 551.61 | 819.19 | 927.73 | 1,050.66 | 1,189.87 | 1,347.53 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 161.11 | 154.87 | 153.73 | 191.36 | 214.68 | 243.12 | 275.34 | 311.82 |
| EBIT | 152.85 | 144.55 | 141.49 | 165.15 | 196.59 | 222.63 | 252.13 | 285.54 |
| Tax Rate | 34.00% | 23.61% | 17.49% | 20.31% | 23.85% | 23.85% | 23.85% | 23.85% |
| EBIAT | 100.88 | 110.42 | 116.74 | 131.61 | 149.70 | 169.53 | 191.99 | 217.43 |
| Depreciation | 8.26 | 10.32 | 12.25 | 26.21 | 18.09 | 20.49 | 23.20 | 26.28 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 2.41 | 0.44 | 3.06 | -33.05 | -16.74 | -18.96 | -21.47 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Capital Expenditure | - | 41.13 | 5.95 | 0.28 | -18.75 | -2.86 | -3.24 | -3.67 |
| UFCF | 109.14 | 164.28 | 135.37 | 161.16 | 115.99 | 170.41 | 192.99 | 218.56 |
| WACC | ||||||||
| PV UFCF | 138.56 | 186.26 | 192.99 | 199.97 | ||||
| SUM PV UFCF | - |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 9.30 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 221.92 |
| Terminal Value | 4,187.26 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 2,684.29 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | - |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -253.54 |
| Equity Value | - |
| Shares Outstanding | 3.44 |
| Equity Value Per Share | - |