Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
National Western Life Group Inc (NWLI)
$206
-4.8 (-2.28%)
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected |
| Revenue | 589.80 | 682.37 | 874.45 | 551.60 | 819.19 | 932.72 | 1,061.98 | 1,209.16 | 1,376.74 | 1,567.54 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||
| EBITDA | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||
| EBIT | -2.99 | -8.06 | -10.00 | -11.82 | -11.27 | -11.85 | -13.49 | -15.36 | -17.49 | -19.91 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||
| Depreciation | 2.99 | 8.06 | 10.00 | 11.82 | 11.27 | 11.85 | 13.49 | 15.36 | 17.49 | 19.91 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected |
| Total Cash | 2,985.59 | 3,111.61 | 3,277.23 | 3,078.04 | 3,610.47 | 4,357.19 | 4,961.05 | 5,648.60 | 6,431.43 | 7,322.76 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 12.51 | 14.48 | 18.55 | 11.70 | 17.38 | 19.79 | 22.53 | 25.65 | 29.21 | 33.25 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | - | -50.21 | -9.12 | -3.14 | -2.84 | -21.73 | -24.74 | -28.17 | -32.07 | -36.51 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 206 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.132 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 3.64 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 20.31 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 3.98% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 11.471 |
| Total Debt | 10,463.19 |
| Total Equity | 749.02 |
| Total Capital | 11,212.21 |
| Debt Weighting | 93.32 |
| Equity Weighting | 6.68 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected |
| Revenue | 589.80 | 682.37 | 874.45 | 551.60 | 819.19 | 932.72 | 1,061.98 | 1,209.16 | 1,376.74 | 1,567.54 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| EBIT | -2.99 | -8.06 | -10.00 | -11.82 | -11.27 | -11.85 | -13.49 | -15.36 | -17.49 | -19.91 |
| Tax Rate | 32.91% | 34.00% | 23.61% | 17.49% | 20.31% | 25.66% | 25.66% | 25.66% | 25.66% | 25.66% |
| EBIAT | -2.00 | -5.32 | -7.64 | -9.76 | -8.98 | -8.81 | -10.03 | -11.42 | -13.00 | -14.80 |
| Depreciation | 2.99 | 8.06 | 10.00 | 11.82 | 11.27 | 11.85 | 13.49 | 15.36 | 17.49 | 19.91 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -1.96 | -4.07 | 6.85 | -5.68 | -2.41 | -2.74 | -3.12 | -3.56 | -4.05 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Capital Expenditure | - | -50.21 | -9.12 | -3.14 | -2.84 | -21.73 | -24.74 | -28.17 | -32.07 | -36.51 |
| UFCF | 0.98 | -49.44 | -10.83 | 5.78 | -6.23 | -21.09 | -24.02 | -27.35 | -31.14 | -35.45 |
| WACC | ||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -22.04 | -24.02 | -26.17 | -28.52 | -31.08 | |||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -120.77 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 4.48 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -36.87 |
| Terminal Value | -7,681.08 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -6,169.59 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -6,290.36 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -253.53 |
| Equity Value | -6,036.84 |
| Shares Outstanding | 3.64 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -1,660.30 |