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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Oasis Petroleum Inc.

Oasis Petroleum Inc. (OAS)

Energy

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 1,142.001,390.27789.81704.751,293.852,322.202,929.923,696.684,664.105,884.707,424.72
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 777.241,385.13578.62245.11598.15754.251,730.702,183.632,755.093,476.094,385.78
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 470.16972.7793.28-231.2367.28117.97490.47618.82780.77985.101,242.90
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 307.08412.35485.34476.34530.87636.281,240.241,564.811,974.312,490.993,142.89
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 94.90347.98149.4311.5617.08122.15295.34372.63470.14593.18748.41
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 315.08306.42197.37204.31371.33387.58727.79918.261,158.561,461.761,844.30
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 20.6721.4111.0610.6431.5745.2852.1565.8083.02104.75132.16
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 8.9120.999.954.6513.3320.2029.8937.7147.5760.0275.73
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -2,453.58-1,075.65-818.80-413.90-641.62-815.79-2,633.71-3,322.95-4,192.56-5,289.76-6,674.08
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 3.25
Diluted Shares Outstanding 307.48
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 14.20
After-tax Cost of Debt -0.66
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 19.60
Total Debt 2,735.30
Total Equity 999.31
Total Capital 3,734.61
Debt Weighting 73.24
Equity Weighting 26.76
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 1,142.001,390.27789.81704.751,293.852,322.202,929.923,696.684,664.105,884.707,424.72
EBITDA 777.241,385.13578.62245.11598.15754.251,730.702,183.632,755.093,476.094,385.78
EBIT 470.16972.7793.28-231.2367.28117.97490.47618.82780.77985.101,242.90
Tax Rate 37.20%37.77%28.60%34.59%255.70%14.20%68.01%68.01%68.01%68.01%68.01%
EBIAT 295.24605.4066.60-151.24-104.76101.21156.89197.95249.75315.11397.58
Depreciation 307.08412.35485.34476.34530.87636.281,240.241,564.811,974.312,490.993,142.89
Accounts Receivable -8.66109.04-6.93-167.03-16.24-340.22-190.46-240.31-303.20-382.54
Inventories --0.7410.350.42-20.93-13.71-6.87-13.65-17.22-21.73-27.41
Accounts Payable -12.09-11.04-5.308.686.889.687.829.8712.4515.71
Capital Expenditure --1,377.93-256.85-404.90227.72174.171,817.92689.24869.621,097.191,384.33
UFCF 602.32-340.18403.44-91.61474.55888.592,877.642,255.702,846.023,590.834,530.55
WACC
PV UFCF 2,654.891,920.012,234.962,601.583,028.34
SUM PV UFCF 9,053.23

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.39
Free cash flow (t + 1) 4,711.77
Terminal Value 107,329.57
Present Value of Terminal Value 71,741.97

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 80,795.20
Net Debt 2,613.15
Equity Value 78,182.05
Shares Outstanding 307.48
Equity Value Per Share 254.27