Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
ONEOK Inc. (OKE)
Energy
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Projected | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected |
| Revenue | 11,871.88 | 12,194.79 | 7,763.21 | 8,920.70 | 12,173.19 | 12,591.94 | 13,125.84 | 13,682.38 | 14,262.51 | 14,867.24 | 15,497.61 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | |||||||||||
| EBITDA | 1,087.46 | 1,128.02 | 1,152.84 | 1,425.53 | 1,727.38 | 2,412.62 | 1,806.12 | 1,882.70 | 1,962.52 | 2,045.73 | 2,132.47 |
| EBITDA (%) | |||||||||||
| EBIT | 702.82 | 821.93 | 798.06 | 1,033.91 | 1,320.79 | 1,984.49 | 1,337.52 | 1,394.23 | 1,453.35 | 1,514.97 | 1,579.21 |
| EBIT (%) | |||||||||||
| Depreciation | 384.65 | 306.09 | 354.78 | 391.62 | 406.58 | 428.13 | 468.59 | 488.46 | 509.17 | 530.76 | 553.26 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Projected | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected |
| Total Cash | 146.02 | 173.17 | 97.82 | 248.89 | 37.74 | 12.59 | 154.88 | 161.45 | 168.30 | 175.43 | 182.87 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | |||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 1,110.02 | 745.10 | 593.89 | 872.44 | 1,202.71 | 818.48 | 1,077.63 | 1,123.32 | 1,170.95 | 1,220.60 | 1,272.35 |
| Account Receivables (%) | |||||||||||
| Inventories | 188.76 | 190.24 | 204.95 | 200.72 | 432.15 | 438.20 | 329.46 | 343.43 | 357.99 | 373.17 | 388.99 |
| Inventories (%) | |||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 1,272.67 | 891.44 | 615.62 | 875.12 | 1,140.63 | 1,116.91 | 1,181.33 | 1,231.41 | 1,283.63 | 1,338.05 | 1,394.79 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | |||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -2,256.84 | -1,779.22 | -1,188.55 | -624.45 | -512.49 | -2,141.89 | -1,686.67 | -1,758.19 | -1,832.73 | -1,910.44 | -1,991.44 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 70.13 |
|---|---|
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 411.49 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 23.96 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | -1.15 |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 12.27 |
| Total Debt | 8,899.58 |
| Total Equity | 28,857.44 |
| Total Capital | 37,757.02 |
| Debt Weighting | 23.57 |
| Equity Weighting | 76.43 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Projected | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected |
| Revenue | 11,871.88 | 12,194.79 | 7,763.21 | 8,920.70 | 12,173.19 | 12,591.94 | 13,125.84 | 13,682.38 | 14,262.51 | 14,867.24 | 15,497.61 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 1,087.46 | 1,128.02 | 1,152.84 | 1,425.53 | 1,727.38 | 2,412.62 | 1,806.12 | 1,882.70 | 1,962.52 | 2,045.73 | 2,132.47 |
| EBIT | 702.82 | 821.93 | 798.06 | 1,033.91 | 1,320.79 | 1,984.49 | 1,337.52 | 1,394.23 | 1,453.35 | 1,514.97 | 1,579.21 |
| Tax Rate | 38.39% | 32.49% | 35.80% | 37.63% | 53.56% | 23.96% | 36.97% | 36.97% | 36.97% | 36.97% | 36.97% |
| EBIAT | 433.00 | 554.90 | 512.36 | 644.84 | 613.39 | 1,509.00 | 843.02 | 878.77 | 916.03 | 954.87 | 995.35 |
| Depreciation | 384.65 | 306.09 | 354.78 | 391.62 | 406.58 | 428.13 | 468.59 | 488.46 | 509.17 | 530.76 | 553.26 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 364.92 | 151.22 | -278.56 | -330.27 | 384.23 | -259.16 | -45.69 | -47.63 | -49.65 | -51.75 |
| Inventories | - | -1.48 | -14.71 | 4.23 | -231.43 | -6.05 | 108.74 | -13.97 | -14.56 | -15.18 | -15.82 |
| Accounts Payable | - | -381.23 | -275.82 | 259.50 | 265.51 | -23.72 | 64.42 | 50.09 | 52.21 | 54.43 | 56.73 |
| Capital Expenditure | - | -477.62 | -590.67 | -564.10 | -111.96 | 1,629.40 | -455.22 | 71.51 | 74.55 | 77.71 | 81.00 |
| UFCF | 817.65 | 365.58 | 137.16 | 457.53 | 611.83 | 3,920.99 | 770.40 | 1,429.17 | 1,489.77 | 1,552.94 | 1,618.78 |
| WACC | |||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 698.59 | 1,175.14 | 1,110.78 | 1,049.94 | 992.44 | ||||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 6,803.13 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 10.28 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 1,683.53 |
| Terminal Value | 26,807.82 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 16,435.30 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 23,238.43 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 8,886.99 |
| Equity Value | 14,351.44 |
| Shares Outstanding | 411.49 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 34.88 |