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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


ONEOK Inc.

ONEOK Inc. (OKE)

Energy

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 11,871.8812,194.797,763.218,920.7012,173.1912,591.9413,125.8413,682.3814,262.5114,867.2415,497.61
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 1,087.461,128.021,152.841,425.531,727.382,412.621,806.121,882.701,962.522,045.732,132.47
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 702.82821.93798.061,033.911,320.791,984.491,337.521,394.231,453.351,514.971,579.21
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 384.65306.09354.78391.62406.58428.13468.59488.46509.17530.76553.26
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 146.02173.1797.82248.8937.7412.59154.88161.45168.30175.43182.87
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,110.02745.10593.89872.441,202.71818.481,077.631,123.321,170.951,220.601,272.35
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 188.76190.24204.95200.72432.15438.20329.46343.43357.99373.17388.99
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 1,272.67891.44615.62875.121,140.631,116.911,181.331,231.411,283.631,338.051,394.79
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -2,256.84-1,779.22-1,188.55-624.45-512.49-2,141.89-1,686.67-1,758.19-1,832.73-1,910.44-1,991.44
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 70.13
Diluted Shares Outstanding 411.49
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 23.96
After-tax Cost of Debt -1.15
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 12.27
Total Debt 8,899.58
Total Equity 28,857.44
Total Capital 37,757.02
Debt Weighting 23.57
Equity Weighting 76.43
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 11,871.8812,194.797,763.218,920.7012,173.1912,591.9413,125.8413,682.3814,262.5114,867.2415,497.61
EBITDA 1,087.461,128.021,152.841,425.531,727.382,412.621,806.121,882.701,962.522,045.732,132.47
EBIT 702.82821.93798.061,033.911,320.791,984.491,337.521,394.231,453.351,514.971,579.21
Tax Rate 38.39%32.49%35.80%37.63%53.56%23.96%36.97%36.97%36.97%36.97%36.97%
EBIAT 433.00554.90512.36644.84613.391,509.00843.02878.77916.03954.87995.35
Depreciation 384.65306.09354.78391.62406.58428.13468.59488.46509.17530.76553.26
Accounts Receivable -364.92151.22-278.56-330.27384.23-259.16-45.69-47.63-49.65-51.75
Inventories --1.48-14.714.23-231.43-6.05108.74-13.97-14.56-15.18-15.82
Accounts Payable --381.23-275.82259.50265.51-23.7264.4250.0952.2154.4356.73
Capital Expenditure --477.62-590.67-564.10-111.961,629.40-455.2271.5174.5577.7181.00
UFCF 817.65365.58137.16457.53611.833,920.99770.401,429.171,489.771,552.941,618.78
WACC
PV UFCF 698.591,175.141,110.781,049.94992.44
SUM PV UFCF 6,803.13

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 10.28
Free cash flow (t + 1) 1,683.53
Terminal Value 26,807.82
Present Value of Terminal Value 16,435.30

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 23,238.43
Net Debt 8,886.99
Equity Value 14,351.44
Shares Outstanding 411.49
Equity Value Per Share 34.88