Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Oracle Corporation (ORCL)
Technology
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected |
| Revenue | 37,180.00 | 38,276.81 | 38,227.05 | 37,049.66 | 37,794.36 | 39,385.50 | 39,507.59 | 39,918.47 | 40,333.62 | 40,753.09 | 41,176.93 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | |||||||||||
| EBITDA | 17,627.04 | 17,526.95 | 16,839.02 | 15,416.36 | 15,930.32 | 17,235.09 | 17,268.77 | 17,592.07 | 17,775.03 | 17,959.89 | 18,146.67 |
| EBITDA (%) | |||||||||||
| EBIT | 14,697.25 | 14,617.91 | 13,979.63 | 12,908.10 | 13,477.47 | 14,450.54 | 14,349.16 | 14,701.97 | 14,854.87 | 15,009.36 | 15,165.46 |
| EBIT (%) | |||||||||||
| Depreciation | 2,929.78 | 2,909.04 | 2,859.38 | 2,508.26 | 2,452.85 | 2,784.55 | 2,919.61 | 2,890.10 | 2,920.15 | 2,950.52 | 2,981.21 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected |
| Total Cash | 32,216.47 | 38,820.34 | 54,366.51 | 56,126.53 | 66,079.65 | 67,262.55 | 37,828.52 | 52,644.48 | 53,191.98 | 53,745.18 | 54,304.13 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | |||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 6,049.19 | 6,086.01 | 5,619.38 | 5,383.32 | 5,298.77 | 5,135.87 | 5,132.04 | 5,784.19 | 5,844.34 | 5,905.12 | 5,966.54 |
| Account Receivables (%) | |||||||||||
| Inventories | 241.67 | 187.56 | 313.46 | 211.18 | - | - | - | 251.49 | 254.10 | 256.74 | 259.41 |
| Inventories (%) | |||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 420.13 | 470.80 | 806.59 | 503.88 | 597.15 | 527.77 | 580.76 | 582.81 | 588.87 | 595.00 | 601.18 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | |||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -650.65 | -581.81 | -1,391.46 | -1,189.29 | -2,022.00 | -1,736.90 | -1,659.32 | -1,373.20 | -1,387.48 | -1,401.91 | -1,416.49 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 54.54 |
|---|---|
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 3,634.00 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 9.66 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | -0.43 |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 11.10 |
| Total Debt | 51,673.00 |
| Total Equity | 198,198.36 |
| Total Capital | 249,871.36 |
| Debt Weighting | 20.68 |
| Equity Weighting | 79.32 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected |
| Revenue | 37,180.00 | 38,276.81 | 38,227.05 | 37,049.66 | 37,794.36 | 39,385.50 | 39,507.59 | 39,918.47 | 40,333.62 | 40,753.09 | 41,176.93 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 17,627.04 | 17,526.95 | 16,839.02 | 15,416.36 | 15,930.32 | 17,235.09 | 17,268.77 | 17,592.07 | 17,775.03 | 17,959.89 | 18,146.67 |
| EBIT | 14,697.25 | 14,617.91 | 13,979.63 | 12,908.10 | 13,477.47 | 14,450.54 | 14,349.16 | 14,701.97 | 14,854.87 | 15,009.36 | 15,165.46 |
| Tax Rate | 21.39% | 20.06% | 22.57% | 22.21% | 19.08% | 71.13% | 9.66% | 26.58% | 26.58% | 26.58% | 26.58% |
| EBIAT | 11,553.28 | 11,685.58 | 10,825.12 | 10,041.51 | 10,906.59 | 4,172.09 | 12,963.13 | 10,793.62 | 10,905.87 | 11,019.29 | 11,133.89 |
| Depreciation | 2,929.78 | 2,909.04 | 2,859.38 | 2,508.26 | 2,452.85 | 2,784.55 | 2,919.61 | 2,890.10 | 2,920.15 | 2,950.52 | 2,981.21 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -36.83 | 466.64 | 236.06 | 84.55 | 162.90 | 3.83 | -652.15 | -60.16 | -60.78 | -61.41 |
| Inventories | - | 54.11 | -125.91 | 102.28 | 211.18 | - | - | - | -2.62 | -2.64 | -2.67 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 50.67 | 335.79 | -302.72 | 93.28 | -69.39 | 53.00 | 2.05 | 6.06 | 6.12 | 6.19 |
| Capital Expenditure | - | -68.84 | 809.66 | -202.17 | 832.70 | -285.10 | -77.58 | -286.12 | 14.28 | 14.43 | 14.58 |
| UFCF | 14,483.07 | 14,593.74 | 15,170.68 | 12,383.23 | 14,581.16 | 6,765.06 | 15,861.99 | 12,747.49 | 13,783.60 | 13,926.95 | 14,071.79 |
| WACC | |||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 10,585.09 | 10,429.60 | 9,602.76 | 8,841.47 | |||||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 89,235.82 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 9.74 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 14,634.66 |
| Terminal Value | 254,959.20 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 160,193.87 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 249,429.69 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 13,844.48 |
| Equity Value | 235,585.21 |
| Shares Outstanding | 3,634.00 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 64.83 |