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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Occidental Petroleum Corporation

Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY)

Energy

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 21,452.0021,947.5412,698.8510,397.8213,273.8518,933.8219,401.4919,880.7020,371.7620,874.9421,390.55
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 13,452.556,639.13-4,467.453,324.185,674.579,974.344,751.424,868.784,989.045,112.275,238.55
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 9,250.102,379.11-9,011.10-944.121,672.515,998.24-968.13-992.05-1,016.55-1,041.66-1,067.39
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 4,202.454,260.024,543.654,268.304,002.073,976.105,719.565,860.836,005.596,153.936,305.93
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 3,393.717,808.944,393.802,233.451,672.513,033.204,666.064,781.314,899.415,020.425,144.43
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 6,514.975,295.943,903.634,931.685,212.645,697.196,660.536,825.056,993.627,166.377,343.38
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1,199.171,051.29985.43866.141,246.411,259.101,433.771,469.181,505.471,542.661,580.76
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 5,519.605,227.903,069.313,926.224,408.254,884.935,616.735,755.465,897.626,043.306,192.56
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -7,207.87-8,388.35-5,864.33-2,831.33-3,476.42-4,920.90-6,355.93-6,512.92-6,673.79-6,838.63-7,007.54
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 44.01
Diluted Shares Outstanding -
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 26.34
After-tax Cost of Debt -1.27
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.10
Total Debt 10,201.00
Total Equity -
Total Capital 10,201.00
Debt Weighting 100.00
Equity Weighting 0.00
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 21,452.0021,947.5412,698.8510,397.8213,273.8518,933.8219,401.4919,880.7020,371.7620,874.9421,390.55
EBITDA 13,452.556,639.13-4,467.453,324.185,674.579,974.344,751.424,868.784,989.045,112.275,238.55
EBIT 9,250.102,379.11-9,011.10-944.121,672.515,998.24-968.13-992.05-1,016.55-1,041.66-1,067.39
Tax Rate 35.25%73.23%14.52%53.56%1.28%26.34%34.03%34.03%34.03%34.03%34.03%
EBIAT 5,989.18636.91-7,702.58-438.451,651.104,418.46-638.68-654.45-670.62-687.18-704.16
Depreciation 4,202.454,260.024,543.654,268.304,002.073,976.105,719.565,860.836,005.596,153.936,305.93
Accounts Receivable -1,219.031,392.32-1,028.06-280.96-484.55-963.34-164.52-168.58-172.74-177.01
Inventories -147.8865.86119.29-380.28-12.68-174.67-35.41-36.29-37.19-38.10
Accounts Payable --291.70-2,158.59856.90482.03476.68731.80138.73142.16145.67149.27
Capital Expenditure -1,180.48-2,524.02-3,033.00645.101,444.481,435.03156.99160.87164.84168.91
UFCF 10,191.637,152.62-6,383.37744.996,119.069,818.496,109.705,302.175,433.145,567.345,704.85
WACC
PV UFCF 5,892.844,932.474,874.904,818.014,761.78
SUM PV UFCF 44,765.00

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 3.68
Free cash flow (t + 1) 5,933.04
Terminal Value -1,854,076.22
Present Value of Terminal Value -1,547,578.33

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -1,502,813.33
Net Debt 7,167.80
Equity Value -1,509,981.13
Shares Outstanding -
Equity Value Per Share -Infinity

Results Unlevered DCF

Wacc / Long-term Growth -4 (%)-3 (%)-2 (%)-1 (%)0 (%)1 (%)2 (%)3 (%)4 (%)
5.68 (%) Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell
5.18 (%) Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell
4.68 (%) Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell
4.18 (%) Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy -Infinity Sell
3.68 (%) Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy -Infinity Sell
3.18 (%) Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy
2.68 (%) Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy
2.18 (%) Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy
1.68 (%) Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy