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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Occidental Petroleum Corporation

Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY)

Energy

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 21,452.0021,947.5412,698.8510,397.8213,273.8518,933.8219,401.4919,880.7020,371.7620,874.9421,390.55
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 13,452.556,639.13-4,467.453,324.185,674.579,974.345,987.306,135.196,286.726,442.016,601.12
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 9,250.102,379.11-9,011.10-944.121,672.515,998.24587.87602.39617.26632.51648.13
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 4,202.454,260.024,543.654,268.304,002.073,976.105,399.435,532.805,669.465,809.505,952.99
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 3,393.717,808.944,393.802,233.451,672.513,033.204,400.264,508.944,620.314,734.444,851.38
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 6,514.975,295.943,903.634,931.685,212.645,689.616,532.486,693.836,859.177,028.597,202.20
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1,199.171,051.29985.43866.141,246.411,259.101,375.571,409.541,444.361,480.031,516.59
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 5,519.605,227.903,069.313,926.224,408.254,884.935,513.905,650.105,789.655,932.666,079.19
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -7,207.87-8,388.35-5,864.33-2,831.33-3,476.42-4,920.90-6,383.09-6,540.75-6,702.31-6,867.86-7,037.49
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 38.26
Diluted Shares Outstanding 755.03
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 26.34
After-tax Cost of Debt -1.27
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 9.10
Total Debt 10,201.00
Total Equity 28,887.29
Total Capital 39,088.29
Debt Weighting 26.10
Equity Weighting 73.90
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 21,452.0021,947.5412,698.8510,397.8213,273.8518,933.8219,401.4919,880.7020,371.7620,874.9421,390.55
EBITDA 13,452.556,639.13-4,467.453,324.185,674.579,974.345,987.306,135.196,286.726,442.016,601.12
EBIT 9,250.102,379.11-9,011.10-944.121,672.515,998.24587.87602.39617.26632.51648.13
Tax Rate 35.25%73.23%14.52%53.56%1.28%26.34%34.03%34.03%34.03%34.03%34.03%
EBIAT 5,989.18636.91-7,702.58-438.451,651.104,418.46387.81397.39407.21417.27427.57
Depreciation 4,202.454,260.024,543.654,268.304,002.073,976.105,399.435,532.805,669.465,809.505,952.99
Accounts Receivable -1,219.031,392.32-1,028.06-280.96-476.97-842.87-161.35-165.34-169.42-173.61
Inventories -147.8865.86119.29-380.28-12.68-116.47-33.98-34.82-35.68-36.56
Accounts Payable --291.70-2,158.59856.90482.03476.68628.98136.19139.56143.00146.54
Capital Expenditure -1,180.48-2,524.02-3,033.00645.101,444.481,462.19157.66161.56165.55169.64
UFCF 10,191.637,152.62-6,383.37744.996,119.069,826.066,919.086,028.726,177.636,330.226,486.57
WACC
PV UFCF 6,425.005,198.464,946.474,706.714,478.56
SUM PV UFCF 38,111.25

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.69
Free cash flow (t + 1) 6,746.04
Terminal Value 182,819.42
Present Value of Terminal Value 126,225.02

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 164,336.26
Net Debt 7,167.80
Equity Value 157,168.46
Shares Outstanding 755.03
Equity Value Per Share 208.16