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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Petroleo Brasileiro S.A.- Petrobras

Petroleo Brasileiro S.A.- Petrobras (PBR)

Energy

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 97,314.0081,403.1688,827.1395,586.8795,711.1495,835.5695,960.1596,084.9096,209.81
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 8,437.1216,769.0522,437.7329,679.7220,482.1820,508.8120,535.4720,562.1720,588.90
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -3,152.972,800.279,131.4317,654.906,929.496,938.496,947.516,956.556,965.59
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 11,590.1013,968.7813,306.3012,024.8313,552.7013,570.3213,587.9613,605.6213,623.31
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 97,849.2321,986.9924,400.8114,978.4640,849.5140,902.6240,955.7941,009.0341,062.35
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 29,262.3225,357.0826,426.0727,806.2228,722.9128,760.2528,797.6428,835.0828,872.56
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 29,057.968,474.078,491.878,985.1714,174.8214,193.2514,211.7014,230.1714,248.67
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 24,883.195,763.345,764.886,327.8510,949.3510,963.5910,977.8410,992.1111,006.40
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -21,652.37-14,082.75-13,634.96-12,024.83-16,146.47-16,167.46-16,188.48-16,209.52-16,230.59
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 13.35
Diluted Shares Outstanding -
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 39.50
After-tax Cost of Debt -1.93
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 15.28
Total Debt 3,690.00
Total Equity -
Total Capital 3,690.00
Debt Weighting 100.00
Equity Weighting 0.00
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 97,314.0081,403.1688,827.1395,586.8795,711.1495,835.5695,960.1596,084.9096,209.81
EBITDA 8,437.1216,769.0522,437.7329,679.7220,482.1820,508.8120,535.4720,562.1720,588.90
EBIT -3,152.972,800.279,131.4317,654.906,929.496,938.496,947.516,956.556,965.59
Tax Rate 11.86%-16.47%105.24%39.50%35.03%35.03%35.03%35.03%35.03%
EBIAT -2,779.043,261.36-478.3910,680.494,501.804,507.654,513.514,519.384,525.25
Depreciation 11,590.1013,968.7813,306.3012,024.8313,552.7013,570.3213,587.9613,605.6213,623.31
Accounts Receivable -3,905.24-1,068.99-1,380.15-916.69-37.34-37.39-37.44-37.49
Inventories -20,583.89-17.80-493.29-5,189.65-18.43-18.45-18.48-18.50
Accounts Payable --19,119.851.54562.974,621.5014.2314.2514.2714.29
Capital Expenditure --7,569.62-447.78-1,610.144,121.6420.9921.0221.0521.07
UFCF 8,811.0615,029.8111,294.8819,784.7120,691.2918,057.4218,080.9018,104.4018,127.94
WACC
PV UFCF 21,316.1718,057.4217,550.8617,058.5116,579.97
SUM PV UFCF -

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 3.02
Free cash flow (t + 1) 18,853.06
Terminal Value -1,923,781.15
Present Value of Terminal Value -1,657,860.32

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -
Net Debt -11,288.46
Equity Value -
Shares Outstanding -
Equity Value Per Share -