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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Petroleo Brasileiro S.A.- Petrobras

Petroleo Brasileiro S.A.- Petrobras (PBR)

Energy

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 97,314.0081,403.1688,827.1395,586.8795,711.1495,835.5695,960.1596,084.9096,209.81
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 8,437.1216,769.0522,437.7329,679.7220,482.1820,508.8120,535.4720,562.1720,588.90
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -3,152.972,800.279,131.4317,654.906,929.496,938.496,947.516,956.556,965.59
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 11,590.1013,968.7813,306.3012,024.8313,552.7013,570.3213,587.9613,605.6213,623.31
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 25,467.0721,986.9924,400.8114,978.4623,047.2423,077.2023,107.2023,137.2423,167.32
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 8,184.1125,357.0826,426.0727,806.2223,544.9423,575.5523,606.2023,636.8823,667.61
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 7,337.488,474.078,491.878,985.178,834.148,845.628,857.128,868.648,880.17
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 6,286.485,763.345,764.886,327.856,374.366,382.656,390.956,399.256,407.57
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -21,652.37-14,082.75-13,634.96-12,024.83-16,146.47-16,167.46-16,188.48-16,209.52-16,230.59
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 14.7
Diluted Shares Outstanding 13,044.50
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 39.50
After-tax Cost of Debt -1.93
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 15.28
Total Debt 3,690.00
Total Equity 191,754.10
Total Capital 195,444.10
Debt Weighting 1.89
Equity Weighting 98.11
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 97,314.0081,403.1688,827.1395,586.8795,711.1495,835.5695,960.1596,084.9096,209.81
EBITDA 8,437.1216,769.0522,437.7329,679.7220,482.1820,508.8120,535.4720,562.1720,588.90
EBIT -3,152.972,800.279,131.4317,654.906,929.496,938.496,947.516,956.556,965.59
Tax Rate 11.86%-16.47%105.24%39.50%35.03%35.03%35.03%35.03%35.03%
EBIAT -2,779.043,261.36-478.3910,680.494,501.804,507.654,513.514,519.384,525.25
Depreciation 11,590.1013,968.7813,306.3012,024.8313,552.7013,570.3213,587.9613,605.6213,623.31
Accounts Receivable --17,172.98-1,068.99-1,380.154,261.28-30.61-30.65-30.69-30.73
Inventories --1,136.59-17.80-493.29151.03-11.48-11.50-11.51-11.53
Accounts Payable --523.141.54562.9746.518.298.308.318.32
Capital Expenditure --7,569.62-447.78-1,610.144,121.6420.9921.0221.0521.07
UFCF 8,811.06-9,172.1811,294.8819,784.7126,634.9518,065.1518,088.6318,112.1518,135.69
WACC
PV UFCF 30,643.5218,065.1515,722.4113,683.4911,908.97
SUM PV UFCF -

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 15.05
Free cash flow (t + 1) 18,861.12
Terminal Value 170,688.89
Present Value of Terminal Value 84,678.30

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -
Net Debt -11,288.46
Equity Value -
Shares Outstanding 13,044.50
Equity Value Per Share -