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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Pfizer Inc.

Pfizer Inc. (PFE)

Healthcare

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 51,584.0049,603.1748,849.2152,820.6552,540.7053,644.0554,110.7654,581.5255,056.3855,535.3756,018.53
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 32,719.7317,792.6614,107.6514,092.5518,525.8518,244.3417,391.2017,542.5017,695.1217,849.0718,004.35
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 26,307.8412,256.948,949.178,335.1012,257.7411,860.7011,282.0911,380.2511,479.2511,579.1211,679.86
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 6,411.895,535.715,158.485,757.456,268.116,383.646,109.106,162.256,215.876,269.946,324.49
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 32,410.2336,121.0323,291.3017,848.1019,991.7418,834.4324,614.9824,829.1325,045.1525,263.0425,482.83
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 9,357.348,402.788,177.368,224.178,222.628,025.158,641.498,716.678,792.508,869.008,946.16
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 6,164.295,664.687,513.016,782.177,576.377,510.177,364.477,428.547,493.177,558.367,624.12
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 3,234.323,209.333,619.734,537.294,655.114,672.404,334.274,371.984,410.024,448.384,487.08
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -1,464.99-1,582.34-1,494.79-1,996.62-2,217.22-2,194.04-1,985.86-2,003.14-2,020.57-2,038.15-2,055.88
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 34.65
Diluted Shares Outstanding 5,977.00
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 5.95
After-tax Cost of Debt -0.25
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.36
Total Debt 32,909.00
Total Equity 207,103.05
Total Capital 240,012.05
Debt Weighting 13.71
Equity Weighting 86.29
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 51,584.0049,603.1748,849.2152,820.6552,540.7053,644.0554,110.7654,581.5255,056.3855,535.3756,018.53
EBITDA 32,719.7317,792.6614,107.6514,092.5518,525.8518,244.3417,391.2017,542.5017,695.1217,849.0718,004.35
EBIT 26,307.8412,256.948,949.178,335.1012,257.7411,860.7011,282.0911,380.2511,479.2511,579.1211,679.86
Tax Rate 16.37%25.46%22.23%13.47%-73.82%5.95%1.61%1.61%1.61%1.61%1.61%
EBIAT 22,002.039,136.456,959.367,212.4921,305.8211,154.6011,100.3111,196.8911,294.3011,392.5611,491.68
Depreciation 6,411.895,535.715,158.485,757.456,268.116,383.646,109.106,162.256,215.876,269.946,324.49
Accounts Receivable -954.56225.42-46.821.56197.47-616.34-75.18-75.84-76.49-77.16
Inventories -499.61-1,848.33730.84-794.2066.20145.69-64.07-64.63-65.19-65.76
Accounts Payable --24.99410.40917.57117.8117.29-338.1337.7138.0438.3738.70
Capital Expenditure -117.36-87.56501.83220.60-23.18-208.1817.2817.4317.5817.73
UFCF 28,413.9216,218.6910,817.7715,073.3627,119.6917,796.0316,192.4717,274.8717,425.1717,576.7617,729.68
WACC
PV UFCF 15,012.4914,848.8913,886.5912,986.6512,145.04
SUM PV UFCF 133,666.81

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.86
Free cash flow (t + 1) 18,438.87
Terminal Value 477,690.92
Present Value of Terminal Value 327,223.82

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 460,890.63
Net Debt 14,074.57
Equity Value 446,816.05
Shares Outstanding 5,977.00
Equity Value Per Share 74.76

Results Unlevered DCF

Wacc / Long-term Growth -4 (%)-3 (%)-2 (%)-1 (%)0 (%)1 (%)2 (%)3 (%)4 (%)
9.86 (%) 41.73 Buy 44.44 Buy 47.83 Buy 52.21 Buy 58.09 Buy 66.38 Buy 78.97 Buy 100.37 Buy 144.77 Buy
9.36 (%) 40.20 Buy 42.59 Buy 45.56 Buy 49.32 Buy 54.28 Buy 61.07 Buy 70.99 Buy 86.82 Buy 116.05 Buy
8.86 (%) 38.83 Buy 40.95 Buy 43.56 Buy 46.82 Buy 51.04 Buy 56.70 Buy 64.69 Buy 76.81 Buy 97.42 Buy
8.36 (%) 37.58 Buy 39.48 Buy 41.78 Buy 44.64 Buy 48.27 Buy 53.04 Buy 59.59 Buy 69.14 Buy 84.38 Buy
7.86 (%) 36.46 Buy 38.16 Buy 40.20 Buy 42.71 Buy 45.86 Buy 49.93 Buy 55.38 Buy 63.07 Buy 74.76 Buy
7.36 (%) 35.43 Buy 36.96 Buy 38.79 Buy 41.01 Buy 43.76 Buy 47.26 Buy 51.85 Buy 58.16 Buy 67.37 Buy
6.86 (%) 34.49 Sell 35.88 Buy 37.52 Buy 39.49 Buy 41.91 Buy 44.94 Buy 48.86 Buy 54.11 Buy 61.53 Buy
6.36 (%) 33.64 Sell 34.89 Buy 36.37 Buy 38.13 Buy 40.27 Buy 42.92 Buy 46.29 Buy 50.72 Buy 56.80 Buy
5.86 (%) 32.85 Sell 33.99 Sell 35.33 Buy 36.91 Buy 38.81 Buy 41.14 Buy 44.06 Buy 47.84 Buy 52.91 Buy