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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Procter & Gamble Company (The)

Procter & Gamble Company (The) (PG)

Consumer Defensive

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 80,116.0074,403.7370,750.5165,302.7265,061.1066,837.2767,686.1065,865.3464,093.5662,369.4560,691.71
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 18,186.3318,340.5213,520.4217,507.6621,671.8516,555.599,333.9115,537.6315,119.6714,712.9514,317.17
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 15,206.0215,200.6810,386.1714,431.9018,854.7113,721.696,511.4012,731.7712,389.2912,056.0111,731.71
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 2,980.323,139.843,134.253,075.762,817.152,833.902,822.512,805.862,730.392,656.942,585.47
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 5,944.6110,684.3811,603.0813,347.8815,139.7211,850.2510,288.2910,801.9210,511.3410,228.599,953.44
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 6,505.426,383.844,570.484,375.284,593.314,685.294,947.854,821.344,691.654,565.444,442.63
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 6,906.006,755.864,980.844,714.864,625.844,738.765,015.545,038.704,903.164,771.264,642.92
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 8,780.718,459.708,136.319,325.239,629.0410,346.4111,262.978,944.518,703.918,469.778,241.93
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -4,005.80-3,846.67-3,735.63-3,310.85-3,383.18-3,716.15-3,343.69-3,411.82-3,320.05-3,230.74-3,143.83
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 122.84
Diluted Shares Outstanding 2,508.33
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 35.05
After-tax Cost of Debt -1.70
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 5.52
Total Debt 20,395.00
Total Equity 308,123.23
Total Capital 328,518.23
Debt Weighting 6.21
Equity Weighting 93.79
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 80,116.0074,403.7370,750.5165,302.7265,061.1066,837.2767,686.1065,865.3464,093.5662,369.4560,691.71
EBITDA 18,186.3318,340.5213,520.4217,507.6621,671.8516,555.599,333.9115,537.6315,119.6714,712.9514,317.17
EBIT 15,206.0215,200.6810,386.1714,431.9018,854.7113,721.696,511.4012,731.7712,389.2912,056.0111,731.71
Tax Rate 22.19%19.67%27.92%24.13%16.66%26.22%35.05%24.55%24.55%24.55%24.55%
EBIAT 11,831.7812,210.687,486.6410,949.4915,714.1310,123.844,229.169,606.409,347.999,096.538,851.83
Depreciation 2,980.323,139.843,134.253,075.762,817.152,833.902,822.512,805.862,730.392,656.942,585.47
Accounts Receivable -121.581,813.36195.20-218.03-91.98-262.56126.51129.69126.21122.81
Inventories -150.141,775.02265.9889.01-112.92-276.78-23.16135.54131.89128.35
Accounts Payable --321.01-323.401,188.92303.81717.37916.56-2,318.45-240.61-234.14-227.84
Capital Expenditure --159.13-111.05-424.7872.33332.97-372.4668.13-91.78-89.31-86.91
UFCF 14,812.1015,142.1013,774.8315,250.5718,778.4013,803.187,056.4310,265.3012,011.2311,688.1311,373.71
WACC
PV UFCF 9,243.9010,263.919,477.908,752.08
SUM PV UFCF 108,804.62

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 5.38
Free cash flow (t + 1) 11,828.66
Terminal Value 857,149.53
Present Value of Terminal Value 659,577.18

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 768,381.80
Net Debt 10,106.71
Equity Value 758,275.09
Shares Outstanding 2,508.33
Equity Value Per Share 302.30