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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


QEP Resources Inc.

QEP Resources Inc. (QEP)

Energy

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 2,685.103,293.282,018.781,377.211,623.041,932.721,890.591,849.371,809.051,769.621,731.04
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 1,400.551,761.57793.78-962.53847.88-312.91350.14342.50335.04327.73320.59
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 384.51720.90-87.41-1,833.6293.32-1,170.07-491.74-481.02-470.54-460.28-450.24
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 1,016.041,040.67881.20871.09754.55857.16841.88823.52805.57788.01770.83
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 11.811,160.22376.10443.74--408.93400.02391.30382.77374.42
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 330.27441.96278.19155.76140.07104.37204.18199.73195.38191.12186.95
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 13.4313.8313.3210.47--10.9710.7310.4910.2610.04
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 361.95575.34351.67269.66360.15258.02326.13319.02312.06305.26298.60
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -1,602.47-2,726.50-1,239.33-1,208.09-1,974.76-1,299.75-1,513.98-1,480.98-1,448.69-1,417.11-1,386.22
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 3.4
Diluted Shares Outstanding 237.90
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 23.88
After-tax Cost of Debt -1.14
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 19.65
Total Debt 2,507.10
Total Equity 808.86
Total Capital 3,315.96
Debt Weighting 75.61
Equity Weighting 24.39
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 2,685.103,293.282,018.781,377.211,623.041,932.721,890.591,849.371,809.051,769.621,731.04
EBITDA 1,400.551,761.57793.78-962.53847.88-312.91350.14342.50335.04327.73320.59
EBIT 384.51720.90-87.41-1,833.6293.32-1,170.07-491.74-481.02-470.54-460.28-450.24
Tax Rate 27.38%-42.13%38.52%36.26%727.74%23.88%135.28%135.28%135.28%135.28%135.28%
EBIAT 279.231,024.59-53.74-1,168.78-585.84-890.62173.46169.68165.98162.36158.82
Depreciation 1,016.041,040.67881.20871.09754.55857.16841.88823.52805.57788.01770.83
Accounts Receivable --111.69163.77122.4315.6935.70-99.824.454.354.264.17
Inventories --0.410.512.8610.47--0.240.230.230.22
Accounts Payable -213.38-223.66-82.0190.50-102.1468.11-7.11-6.95-6.80-6.65
Capital Expenditure -1,124.03-1,487.17-31.24766.67-675.00214.23-33.00-32.29-31.58-30.89
UFCF 1,295.273,290.59-719.11-285.661,052.04-774.901,197.86957.78936.90916.48896.50
WACC
PV UFCF 1,112.53826.19750.60681.94619.55
SUM PV UFCF 6,043.95

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.67
Free cash flow (t + 1) 932.36
Terminal Value 25,404.87
Present Value of Terminal Value 17,556.72

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 23,600.68
Net Debt 2,507.10
Equity Value 21,093.58
Shares Outstanding 237.90
Equity Value Per Share 88.67