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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Transocean Ltd (Switzerland)

Transocean Ltd (Switzerland) (RIG)

Energy

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 9,249.009,185.187,385.804,161.162,973.153,018.052,468.762,019.451,651.911,351.261,105.33
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 3,358.31-135.022,379.712,187.11-1,709.86-329.8773.3259.9849.0640.1332.83
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 2,249.36-1,263.881,416.601,294.12-2,541.75-1,147.76-429.81-351.59-287.60-235.25-192.44
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 1,108.961,128.86963.11892.99831.89817.89503.13411.56336.66275.39225.27
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 3,242.702,749.122,678.833,517.853,434.882,711.111,758.251,438.251,176.49962.37787.22
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 2,111.552,084.121,342.74833.06596.12603.91498.44407.73333.52272.82223.17
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 737.15818.40627.05560.92418.02474.13299.46244.96200.38163.91134.08
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 1,106.18784.41454.97205.98200.98268.91174.29142.57116.6295.4078.04
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -2,238.26-2,164.95-2,000.81-1,344.06-497.11-184.10-522.14-427.11-349.38-285.79-233.78
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 4.22
Diluted Shares Outstanding 468.00
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -12.90
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.69
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 17.13
Total Debt 9,605.00
Total Equity 1,974.96
Total Capital 11,579.96
Debt Weighting 82.95
Equity Weighting 17.05
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 9,249.009,185.187,385.804,161.162,973.153,018.052,468.762,019.451,651.911,351.261,105.33
EBITDA 3,358.31-135.022,379.712,187.11-1,709.86-329.8773.3259.9849.0640.1332.83
EBIT 2,249.36-1,263.881,416.601,294.12-2,541.75-1,147.76-429.81-351.59-287.60-235.25-192.44
Tax Rate 15.50%-5.27%12.18%12.09%-3.10%-12.90%3.08%3.08%3.08%3.08%3.08%
EBIAT 1,900.81-1,330.441,244.021,137.66-2,620.52-1,295.78-416.55-340.74-278.73-228.00-186.50
Depreciation 1,108.961,128.86963.11892.99831.89817.89503.13411.56336.66275.39225.27
Accounts Receivable -27.43741.38509.67236.95-7.79105.4790.7274.2160.7049.65
Inventories --81.25191.3466.13142.90-56.11174.6754.5044.5836.4729.83
Accounts Payable --321.77-329.45-248.99-4.9967.92-94.61-31.72-25.95-21.23-17.36
Capital Expenditure --73.31-164.13-656.76-846.94-313.01338.04-95.03-77.73-63.59-52.01
UFCF 3,009.76-650.482,646.271,700.70-2,260.72-786.88610.1589.2973.0459.7548.87
WACC
PV UFCF 567.0577.1258.6344.5733.88
SUM PV UFCF 4,057.26

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.60
Free cash flow (t + 1) 50.83
Terminal Value 1,411.85
Present Value of Terminal Value 978.88

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 5,036.14
Net Debt 6,893.89
Equity Value -1,857.75
Shares Outstanding 468.00
Equity Value Per Share -3.97

Results Unlevered DCF

Wacc / Long-term Growth -4 (%)-3 (%)-2 (%)-1 (%)0 (%)1 (%)2 (%)3 (%)4 (%)
9.60 (%) -5.27 Sell -5.16 Sell -5.04 Sell -4.87 Sell -4.64 Sell -4.32 Sell -3.81 Sell -2.91 Sell -0.89 Sell
9.10 (%) -5.32 Sell -5.23 Sell -5.12 Sell -4.98 Sell -4.79 Sell -4.52 Sell -4.13 Sell -3.48 Sell -2.21 Sell
8.60 (%) -5.37 Sell -5.29 Sell -5.20 Sell -5.07 Sell -4.91 Sell -4.69 Sell -4.38 Sell -3.89 Sell -3.03 Sell
8.10 (%) -5.42 Sell -5.35 Sell -5.26 Sell -5.16 Sell -5.02 Sell -4.83 Sell -4.58 Sell -4.20 Sell -3.57 Sell
7.60 (%) -5.46 Sell -5.40 Sell -5.32 Sell -5.23 Sell -5.11 Sell -4.95 Sell -4.74 Sell -4.44 Sell -3.97 Sell
7.10 (%) -5.50 Sell -5.44 Sell -5.37 Sell -5.29 Sell -5.19 Sell -5.05 Sell -4.88 Sell -4.63 Sell -4.27 Sell
6.60 (%) -5.53 Sell -5.48 Sell -5.42 Sell -5.35 Sell -5.26 Sell -5.14 Sell -4.99 Sell -4.79 Sell -4.50 Sell
6.10 (%) -5.57 Sell -5.52 Sell -5.46 Sell -5.40 Sell -5.32 Sell -5.22 Sell -5.09 Sell -4.92 Sell -4.68 Sell
5.60 (%) -5.60 Sell -5.55 Sell -5.50 Sell -5.44 Sell -5.37 Sell -5.29 Sell -5.17 Sell -5.03 Sell -4.83 Sell