Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
RealNetworks Inc (RNWK)
$4.18
-0.19 (-4.35%)
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected |
| Revenue | 206.20 | 156.21 | 125.30 | 120.47 | 78.72 | 69.51 | 172.11 | 187.42 | 204.09 | 222.25 | 242.02 | 263.54 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||||
| EBITDA | -38.87 | -70.74 | -48.06 | -35.61 | -17.14 | -16.39 | -11.22 | -49.25 | -53.63 | -58.40 | -63.59 | -69.25 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||||
| EBIT | -57.62 | -82.70 | -58.47 | -42.67 | -20.08 | -18.52 | -17.06 | -60.25 | -65.61 | -71.45 | -77.80 | -84.72 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||||
| Depreciation | 18.75 | 11.96 | 10.41 | 7.06 | 2.94 | 2.13 | 5.83 | 11.01 | 11.98 | 13.05 | 14.21 | 15.48 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected |
| Total Cash | 226.15 | 161.71 | 99.13 | 77.05 | 59.98 | 35.58 | 16.80 | 132.11 | 143.86 | 156.66 | 170.59 | 185.77 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 24.61 | 15.26 | 22.51 | 22.16 | 12.69 | 11.75 | 29.51 | 28.98 | 31.56 | 34.36 | 37.42 | 40.75 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 19.99 | 18.65 | 17.05 | 18.23 | 3.79 | 3.91 | 4.93 | 17.05 | 18.56 | 20.21 | 22.01 | 23.97 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -7.73 | -2.46 | -1.32 | -2.44 | -0.73 | -0.76 | -1.19 | -2.98 | -3.24 | -3.53 | -3.85 | -4.19 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 4.18 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.761 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 37.99 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 0.94 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 4.95% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 16.480 |
| Total Debt | 11.23 |
| Total Equity | 158.81 |
| Total Capital | 170.05 |
| Debt Weighting | 6.60 |
| Equity Weighting | 93.40 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected |
| Revenue | 206.20 | 156.21 | 125.30 | 120.47 | 78.72 | 69.51 | 172.11 | 187.42 | 204.09 | 222.25 | 242.02 | 263.54 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | -38.87 | -70.74 | -48.06 | -35.61 | -17.14 | -16.39 | -11.22 | -49.25 | -53.63 | -58.40 | -63.59 | -69.25 |
| EBIT | -57.62 | -82.70 | -58.47 | -42.67 | -20.08 | -18.52 | -17.06 | -60.25 | -65.61 | -71.45 | -77.80 | -84.72 |
| Tax Rate | -9.07% | -1.81% | 1.01% | -3.17% | 19.25% | -9.66% | 0.94% | -0.36% | -0.36% | -0.36% | -0.36% | -0.36% |
| EBIAT | -62.84 | -84.20 | -57.88 | -44.02 | -16.21 | -20.32 | -16.90 | -60.47 | -65.85 | -71.71 | -78.08 | -85.03 |
| Depreciation | 18.75 | 11.96 | 10.41 | 7.06 | 2.94 | 2.13 | 5.83 | 11.01 | 11.98 | 13.05 | 14.21 | 15.48 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | 9.36 | -7.25 | 0.35 | 9.47 | 0.94 | -17.76 | 0.53 | -2.58 | -2.81 | -3.06 | -3.33 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | -1.33 | -1.60 | 1.17 | -14.44 | 0.13 | 1.02 | 12.12 | 1.52 | 1.65 | 1.80 | 1.96 |
| Capital Expenditure | -7.73 | -2.46 | -1.32 | -2.44 | -0.73 | -0.77 | -1.19 | -2.98 | -3.24 | -3.53 | -3.85 | -4.19 |
| UFCF | -51.82 | -66.68 | -57.65 | -37.88 | -18.98 | -17.88 | -28.99 | -39.80 | -58.17 | -63.34 | -68.98 | -75.11 |
| WACC | ||||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -34.39 | -43.44 | -40.88 | -38.47 | -36.20 | |||||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -193.36 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 15.72 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -78.12 |
| Terminal Value | -666.52 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -321.20 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -514.56 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -5.57 |
| Equity Value | -508.99 |
| Shares Outstanding | 37.99 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -13.40 |