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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Seaboard Corporation

Seaboard Corporation (SEB)

Industrials

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 6,670.006,473.235,594.175,379.355,809.166,582.946,595.456,607.986,620.546,633.126,645.72
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 348.17647.32349.08513.19575.11161.94476.19477.10478.00478.91479.82
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 255.46555.40257.89410.98457.1827.65362.09362.78363.47364.16364.85
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 92.7191.9291.18102.21117.93134.29114.10114.32114.54114.75114.97
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 345.51526.921,304.001,353.981,692.211,529.881,255.111,257.501,259.891,262.281,264.68
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 651.66633.73510.19627.23482.16550.99626.57627.76628.95630.15631.34
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 699.02736.01738.99762.25780.17814.97825.09826.66828.23829.80831.38
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 200.10214.26238.87216.25271.87238.30251.95252.42252.90253.39253.87
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -134.73-104.87-91.18-110.81-167.88-156.67-138.50-138.77-139.03-139.30-139.56
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 3,850
Diluted Shares Outstanding 1.17
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -6.25
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.36
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.60
Total Debt 739.00
Total Equity 4,506.43
Total Capital 5,245.43
Debt Weighting 14.09
Equity Weighting 85.91
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 6,670.006,473.235,594.175,379.355,809.166,582.946,595.456,607.986,620.546,633.126,645.72
EBITDA 348.17647.32349.08513.19575.11161.94476.19477.10478.00478.91479.82
EBIT 255.46555.40257.89410.98457.1827.65362.09362.78363.47364.16364.85
Tax Rate 13.11%31.40%28.75%18.32%42.29%-6.25%21.27%21.27%21.27%21.27%21.27%
EBIAT 221.96381.00183.75335.67263.8429.38285.07285.61286.15286.70287.24
Depreciation 92.7191.9291.18102.21117.93134.29114.10114.32114.54114.75114.97
Accounts Receivable -17.93123.54-117.04145.07-68.83-75.58-1.19-1.19-1.20-1.20
Inventories --36.99-2.98-23.26-17.92-34.80-10.12-1.57-1.57-1.57-1.58
Accounts Payable -14.1624.61-22.6255.62-33.5713.640.480.480.480.48
Capital Expenditure --29.87-13.6819.6357.07-11.21-18.170.260.260.260.26
UFCF 314.67438.15406.42294.58621.6115.26308.94397.91398.67399.42400.18
WACC
PV UFCF 287.98345.74322.89301.55281.62
SUM PV UFCF 2,683.10

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.28
Free cash flow (t + 1) 416.19
Terminal Value 12,688.73
Present Value of Terminal Value 8,929.44

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 11,612.54
Net Debt -790.88
Equity Value 12,403.41
Shares Outstanding 1.17
Equity Value Per Share 10,596.67

Results Unlevered DCF

Wacc / Long-term Growth -4 (%)-3 (%)-2 (%)-1 (%)0 (%)1 (%)2 (%)3 (%)4 (%)
9.28 (%) 5,702.45 Buy 6,064.63 Buy 6,526.32 Buy 7,135.03 Buy 7,974.31 Buy 9,205.79 Buy 11,188.16 Buy 14,909.46 Buy 24,445.29 Buy
8.78 (%) 5,501.91 Buy 5,819.92 Buy 6,219.67 Buy 6,737.36 Buy 7,434.17 Buy 8,422.53 Buy 9,933.84 Buy 12,532.42 Buy 18,050.75 Buy
8.28 (%) 5,322.48 Buy 5,603.38 Buy 5,952.12 Buy 6,396.66 Buy 6,982.79 Buy 7,790.93 Buy 8,976.71 Buy 10,885.52 Buy 14,468.72 Buy
7.78 (%) 5,161.19 Buy 5,410.64 Buy 5,716.90 Buy 6,101.89 Buy 6,600.45 Buy 7,271.53 Buy 8,223.38 Buy 9,678.87 Buy 12,181.46 Buy
7.28 (%) 5,015.58 Buy 5,238.18 Buy 5,508.74 Buy 5,844.66 Buy 6,272.86 Buy 6,837.44 Buy 7,615.86 Buy 8,758.04 Buy 10,596.67 Buy
6.78 (%) 4,883.61 Buy 5,083.12 Buy 5,323.44 Buy 5,618.49 Buy 5,989.39 Buy 6,469.71 Buy 7,116.22 Buy 8,033.24 Buy 9,435.45 Buy
6.28 (%) 4,763.57 Buy 4,943.12 Buy 5,157.61 Buy 5,418.31 Buy 5,741.99 Buy 6,154.60 Buy 6,698.60 Buy 7,448.67 Buy 8,549.23 Buy
5.78 (%) 4,654.03 Buy 4,816.22 Buy 5,008.49 Buy 5,240.09 Buy 5,524.44 Buy 5,881.90 Buy 6,344.79 Buy 6,967.85 Buy 7,851.61 Buy
5.28 (%) 4,553.77 Buy 4,700.77 Buy 4,873.84 Buy 5,080.58 Buy 5,331.87 Buy 5,643.86 Buy 6,041.57 Buy 6,565.94 Buy 7,288.92 Buy