Loading...

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Square Inc. Class A

Square Inc. Class A (SQ)

Technology

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 552.43850.191,267.131,708.722,214.343,298.254,725.416,770.099,699.5113,896.4919,909.50
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -95.68-131.87-146.86-132.43-15.2842.88-406.39-582.23-834.16-1,195.10-1,712.22
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -103.97-150.48-174.48-170.19-52.48-18.14-497.59-712.89-1,021.36-1,463.30-2,096.47
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 8.2918.6227.6237.7637.2061.0291.20130.66187.20268.20384.25
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 185.45251.66490.13590.71978.071,263.891,724.302,470.413,539.355,070.837,264.98
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 64.97144.79179.17321.07620.46364.79793.871,137.381,629.522,334.613,344.80
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories -----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 100.32154.06234.29495.36848.53803.451,153.471,652.582,367.653,392.134,859.91
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -47.95-28.82-37.38-25.12-26.13-61.35-153.58-220.03-315.23-451.64-647.06
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 67.12
Diluted Shares Outstanding 405.73
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -6.44
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.37
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 31.01
Total Debt 1,048.69
Total Equity 27,232.66
Total Capital 28,281.36
Debt Weighting 3.71
Equity Weighting 96.29
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 552.43850.191,267.131,708.722,214.343,298.254,725.416,770.099,699.5113,896.4919,909.50
EBITDA -95.68-131.87-146.86-132.43-15.2842.88-406.39-582.23-834.16-1,195.10-1,712.22
EBIT -103.97-150.48-174.48-170.19-52.48-18.14-497.59-712.89-1,021.36-1,463.30-2,096.47
Tax Rate -0.49%-0.94%-2.13%-1.13%-0.24%-6.44%-1.90%-1.90%-1.90%-1.90%-1.90%
EBIAT -104.48-151.90-178.20-172.11-52.60-19.31-507.01-726.40-1,040.71-1,491.03-2,136.20
Depreciation 8.2918.6227.6237.7637.2061.0291.20130.66187.20268.20384.25
Accounts Receivable --79.82-34.38-141.90-299.39255.67-429.08-343.51-492.14-705.09-1,010.19
Inventories -----------
Accounts Payable -53.7380.24261.07353.17-45.08350.02499.11715.071,024.481,467.78
Capital Expenditure --19.138.56-12.261.0135.2292.2366.4595.21136.40195.42
UFCF -96.19-178.50-96.16-27.4439.39287.52-402.65-373.68-535.38-767.04-1,098.93
WACC
PV UFCF -309.59-220.91-243.35-268.07-295.29
SUM PV UFCF -439.07

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 30.06
Free cash flow (t + 1) -1,142.89
Terminal Value -4,385.61
Present Value of Terminal Value -1,178.45

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -1,617.52
Net Debt -215.20
Equity Value -1,402.32
Shares Outstanding 405.73
Equity Value Per Share -3.46