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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Spirit Realty Capital Inc.

Spirit Realty Capital Inc. (SRC)

Real Estate

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 419.47602.86667.30435.35431.26445.14464.68485.08506.38528.61551.82
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 346.35431.77577.35479.28447.08428.32426.49445.21464.76485.16506.46
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 178.73183.81316.70216.98191.05230.41206.37215.43224.88234.76245.06
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 167.62247.96260.65262.30256.04197.91220.12229.78239.87250.40261.40
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash --21.8210.068.8014.5112.6413.1913.7714.3815.01
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables -----------
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories -----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 114.68123.28142.47148.93131.66119.79124.54130.00135.71141.67147.89
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -174.83-852.92-389.64-158.12146.45-215.45-226.39-236.33-246.71-257.54-268.84
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 52.52
Diluted Shares Outstanding 86.32
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 0.60
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.02
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.69
Total Debt 1,915.50
Total Equity 4,533.59
Total Capital 6,449.09
Debt Weighting 29.70
Equity Weighting 70.30
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 419.47602.86667.30435.35431.26445.14464.68485.08506.38528.61551.82
EBITDA 346.35431.77577.35479.28447.08428.32426.49445.21464.76485.16506.46
EBIT 178.73183.81316.70216.98191.05230.41206.37215.43224.88234.76245.06
Tax Rate -221.27%-1.86%0.64%0.88%0.66%0.60%-36.73%-36.73%-36.73%-36.73%-36.73%
EBIAT 574.23187.22314.67215.06189.79229.03282.15294.54307.47320.97335.06
Depreciation 167.62247.96260.65262.30256.04197.91220.12229.78239.87250.40261.40
Accounts Receivable -----------
Inventories -----------
Accounts Payable -8.6019.186.46-17.27-11.874.755.475.715.966.22
Capital Expenditure -678.09-463.28-231.52-304.57361.9010.959.9410.3810.8311.31
UFCF 741.841,121.87131.22252.30123.98776.97517.97539.73563.43588.16613.98
WACC
PV UFCF 487.82478.73470.66462.73454.93
SUM PV UFCF 4,279.18

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.18
Free cash flow (t + 1) 638.54
Terminal Value 29,290.81
Present Value of Terminal Value 21,702.90

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 25,982.08
Net Debt 1,900.98
Equity Value 24,081.10
Shares Outstanding 86.32
Equity Value Per Share 278.97