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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Spirit Realty Capital Inc.

Spirit Realty Capital Inc. (SRC)

Real Estate

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 419.47602.86667.30435.35431.26445.14464.68485.08506.38528.61551.82
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 346.35431.77577.35479.28447.08428.32435.04454.14474.07494.88516.61
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 178.73183.81316.70216.98191.05230.41208.04217.17226.71236.66247.05
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 167.62247.96260.65262.30256.04197.91227.00236.96247.37258.23269.56
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash --21.8210.068.8014.5112.6413.1913.7714.3815.01
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables -----------
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories -----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 114.68123.28142.47148.93131.66119.79124.02129.47135.15141.09147.28
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -174.83-852.92-389.64-158.12146.45-215.45-232.95-243.17-253.85-264.99-276.63
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 46.24
Diluted Shares Outstanding 86.48
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 0.60
After-tax Cost of Debt 0.02
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.69
Total Debt 1,915.50
Total Equity 3,998.67
Total Capital 5,914.17
Debt Weighting 32.39
Equity Weighting 67.61
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 419.47602.86667.30435.35431.26445.14464.68485.08506.38528.61551.82
EBITDA 346.35431.77577.35479.28447.08428.32435.04454.14474.07494.88516.61
EBIT 178.73183.81316.70216.98191.05230.41208.04217.17226.71236.66247.05
Tax Rate -221.27%-1.86%0.64%0.88%0.66%0.60%-36.73%-36.73%-36.73%-36.73%-36.73%
EBIAT 574.23187.22314.67215.06189.79229.03284.44296.93309.96323.57337.78
Depreciation 167.62247.96260.65262.30256.04197.91227.00236.96247.37258.23269.56
Accounts Receivable -----------
Inventories -----------
Accounts Payable -8.6019.186.46-17.27-11.874.245.445.685.936.19
Capital Expenditure -678.09-463.28-231.52-304.57361.9017.5010.2310.6811.1411.63
UFCF 741.841,121.87131.22252.30123.98776.97533.17549.56573.69598.87625.16
WACC
PV UFCF 502.33487.82479.78471.87464.09
SUM PV UFCF 4,321.42

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.14
Free cash flow (t + 1) 650.17
Terminal Value 30,381.85
Present Value of Terminal Value 22,553.75

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 26,875.17
Net Debt 1,900.98
Equity Value 24,974.19
Shares Outstanding 86.48
Equity Value Per Share 288.80

Results Unlevered DCF

Wacc / Long-term Growth -4 (%)-3 (%)-2 (%)-1 (%)0 (%)1 (%)2 (%)3 (%)4 (%)
8.14 (%) 97.60 Buy 108.17 Buy 122.19 Buy 141.67 Buy 170.55 Buy 217.84 Buy 309.31 Buy 561.25 Buy 4,412.43 Buy
7.64 (%) 92.02 Buy 101.15 Buy 113.04 Buy 129.14 Buy 152.18 Buy 187.88 Buy 250.63 Buy 389.90 Buy 964.39 Buy
7.14 (%) 87.09 Buy 95.04 Buy 105.22 Buy 118.71 Buy 137.46 Buy 165.26 Buy 210.77 Buy 298.81 Buy 541.31 Buy
6.64 (%) 82.71 Buy 89.68 Buy 98.47 Buy 109.92 Buy 125.42 Buy 147.60 Buy 181.97 Buy 242.37 Buy 376.44 Buy
6.14 (%) 78.80 Buy 84.94 Buy 92.60 Buy 102.40 Buy 115.39 Buy 133.44 Buy 160.21 Buy 204.03 Buy 288.80 Buy
5.64 (%) 75.29 Buy 80.74 Buy 87.45 Buy 95.92 Buy 106.94 Buy 121.86 Buy 143.22 Buy 176.32 Buy 234.49 Buy
5.14 (%) 72.12 Buy 76.98 Buy 82.90 Buy 90.27 Buy 99.71 Buy 112.22 Buy 129.61 Buy 155.39 Buy 197.60 Buy
4.64 (%) 69.25 Buy 73.60 Buy 78.85 Buy 85.32 Buy 93.47 Buy 104.09 Buy 118.47 Buy 139.05 Buy 170.93 Buy
4.14 (%) 66.65 Buy 70.55 Buy 75.23 Buy 80.94 Buy 88.04 Buy 97.14 Buy 109.20 Buy 125.95 Buy 150.79 Buy