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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


SRC Energy Inc.

SRC Energy Inc. (SRCI)

Energy

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 46.22104.22102.42107.15362.51645.631,219.992,305.304,356.098,231.2615,553.80
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 29.8876.8295.83-172.40266.52477.77444.44839.821,586.922,998.655,666.25
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 16.5543.8739.50-219.07154.21298.031.462.775.239.8818.66
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 13.3432.9556.3346.67112.31179.74442.98837.051,581.702,988.775,647.58
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 79.4834.7666.5036.8648.7649.58662.331,251.552,364.924,468.758,444.16
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 12.0632.3724.6832.53104.15140.36329.64622.891,177.012,224.094,202.64
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 0.19-----5.129.6818.3034.5765.33
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 32.5288.093.0469.01138.77247.02607.561,148.042,169.334,099.177,745.79
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -154.90-269.57-253.62-617.92-1,040.30-715.49-3,692.30-6,976.98-13,183.70-24,911.92-47,073.56
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 4.61
Diluted Shares Outstanding 243.02
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 12.74
After-tax Cost of Debt -0.59
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 16.55
Total Debt 734.36
Total Equity 1,120.33
Total Capital 1,854.69
Debt Weighting 39.59
Equity Weighting 60.41
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 46.22104.22102.42107.15362.51645.631,219.992,305.304,356.098,231.2615,553.80
EBITDA 29.8876.8295.83-172.40266.52477.77444.44839.821,586.922,998.655,666.25
EBIT 16.5543.8739.50-219.07154.21298.031.462.775.239.8818.66
Tax Rate 41.76%34.23%7.53%-0.05%-0.07%12.74%16.02%16.02%16.02%16.02%16.02%
EBIAT 9.6428.8536.53-219.18154.32260.051.232.324.398.2915.67
Depreciation 13.3432.9556.3346.67112.31179.74442.98837.051,581.702,988.775,647.58
Accounts Receivable --20.317.69-7.85-71.62-36.21-189.28-293.25-554.12-1,047.07-1,978.55
Inventories -0.19------4.56-8.61-16.28-30.75
Accounts Payable -55.56-85.0465.9769.76108.25360.54540.481,021.291,929.843,646.62
Capital Expenditure -114.67-15.95364.30422.38-324.812,976.813,284.676,206.7211,728.2222,161.64
UFCF 22.97211.93-0.45249.92687.14187.033,592.284,366.728,251.3615,591.7829,462.22
WACC
PV UFCF 3,215.433,498.605,917.4310,008.5716,928.20
SUM PV UFCF 21,191.30

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 11.72
Free cash flow (t + 1) 30,640.71
Terminal Value 396,900.36
Present Value of Terminal Value 228,048.31

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 249,239.61
Net Debt 684.78
Equity Value 248,554.84
Shares Outstanding 243.02
Equity Value Per Share 1,022.77