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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


SRC Energy Inc.

SRC Energy Inc. (SRCI)

Energy

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 46.22104.22102.42107.15362.51645.631,219.992,305.304,356.098,231.2615,553.80
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 17.8029.8895.83-172.40266.52477.77299.63566.181,069.862,021.603,820.01
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 4.47-3.0777.06-219.07154.21298.03-68.81-130.02-245.68-464.24-877.23
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 13.3432.9518.7746.67112.31179.74368.44696.201,315.542,485.844,697.25
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 79.4834.7673.0036.8648.7649.58675.271,275.982,411.094,556.008,609.03
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 12.0632.3725.0032.53104.15140.36330.25624.041,179.192,228.204,210.41
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 0.19-----5.129.6818.3034.5765.33
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 32.5288.0949.0069.01138.77247.02698.811,320.472,495.174,714.878,909.21
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -80.47-154.90-84.93-617.92-1,040.30-715.49-2,806.22-5,302.64-10,019.87-18,933.55-35,776.84
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 3.59
Diluted Shares Outstanding 242.31
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 12.74
After-tax Cost of Debt -0.59
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 16.55
Total Debt 734.36
Total Equity 869.89
Total Capital 1,604.25
Debt Weighting 45.78
Equity Weighting 54.22
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 46.22104.22102.42107.15362.51645.631,219.992,305.304,356.098,231.2615,553.80
EBITDA 17.8029.8895.83-172.40266.52477.77299.63566.181,069.862,021.603,820.01
EBIT 4.47-3.0777.06-219.07154.21298.03-68.81-130.02-245.68-464.24-877.23
Tax Rate 26.30%78.16%111.59%-0.05%-0.07%12.74%38.11%38.11%38.11%38.11%38.11%
EBIAT 3.29-0.67-8.93-219.18154.32260.05-42.58-80.47-152.05-287.31-542.90
Depreciation 13.3432.9518.7746.67112.31179.74368.44696.201,315.542,485.844,697.25
Accounts Receivable --20.317.37-7.53-71.62-36.21-189.89-293.79-555.15-1,049.01-1,982.21
Inventories -0.19------4.56-8.61-16.28-30.75
Accounts Payable -55.56-39.0920.0269.76108.25451.79621.661,174.692,219.704,194.35
Capital Expenditure -74.43-69.97532.99422.38-324.812,090.732,496.424,717.238,913.6816,843.29
UFCF 16.63142.16-91.84372.97687.14187.032,678.493,435.466,491.6512,266.6223,179.01
WACC
PV UFCF 2,413.702,789.814,750.498,089.1513,774.22
SUM PV UFCF 17,856.14

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 10.97
Free cash flow (t + 1) 24,106.17
Terminal Value 345,856.15
Present Value of Terminal Value 205,526.38

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 223,382.51
Net Debt 684.78
Equity Value 222,697.74
Shares Outstanding 242.31
Equity Value Per Share 919.07