Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Scully Royalty Ltd (SRL)
$7.49
-0.06 (-0.79%)
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected |
| Revenue | 866.66 | 1,638.89 | 1,579.70 | 1,131.66 | 274.03 | 139.75 | 113.27 | 96.92 | 82.93 | 70.96 | 60.72 | 51.95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | ||||||||||||
| EBITDA | 73.02 | 95.29 | -28.08 | 3.39 | -31.17 | -10.49 | -10.98 | -2.19 | -1.87 | -1.60 | -1.37 | -1.17 |
| EBITDA (%) | ||||||||||||
| EBIT | 73.02 | 95.29 | -28.08 | 3.39 | -31.17 | -10.75 | -11.48 | -2.49 | -2.13 | -1.82 | -1.56 | -1.34 |
| EBIT (%) | ||||||||||||
| Depreciation | - | - | - | - | - | 0.25 | 0.50 | 0.30 | 0.26 | 0.22 | 0.19 | 0.16 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected |
| Total Cash | 360.55 | 345.59 | 197.92 | 125.88 | 80.19 | 75.16 | 92.45 | 34.75 | 29.74 | 25.44 | 21.77 | 18.63 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | ||||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 154.05 | 226.07 | 177.66 | 182.96 | 56.70 | 14.12 | 6.09 | 13.17 | 11.27 | 9.65 | 8.25 | 7.06 |
| Account Receivables (%) | ||||||||||||
| Inventories | 108.10 | 260.75 | 246.47 | 33.02 | 9.83 | 11.41 | 2.39 | 8.41 | 7.20 | 6.16 | 5.27 | 4.51 |
| Inventories (%) | ||||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 88.58 | 137.37 | 110.88 | 27.05 | 39.53 | 18.85 | 9.92 | 8.96 | 7.66 | 6.56 | 5.61 | 4.80 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | ||||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -7.03 | -42.42 | -8.04 | -0.20 | -0.76 | -0.20 | -0.72 | -0.69 | -0.59 | -0.51 | -0.43 | -0.37 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 7.49 |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.992 |
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 12.53 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | -10.54 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 5.00% |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 10.356 |
| Total Debt | 40.55 |
| Total Equity | 93.89 |
| Total Capital | 134.44 |
| Debt Weighting | 30.16 |
| Equity Weighting | 69.84 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected | 2024 Projected |
| Revenue | 866.66 | 1,638.89 | 1,579.70 | 1,131.66 | 274.03 | 139.75 | 113.27 | 96.92 | 82.93 | 70.96 | 60.72 | 51.95 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 73.02 | 95.29 | -28.08 | 3.39 | -31.17 | -10.49 | -10.98 | -2.19 | -1.87 | -1.60 | -1.37 | -1.17 |
| EBIT | 73.02 | 95.29 | -28.08 | 3.39 | -31.17 | -10.75 | -11.48 | -2.49 | -2.13 | -1.82 | -1.56 | -1.34 |
| Tax Rate | 39.89% | 77.84% | -779.93% | -51.81% | -24.60% | 33.10% | -10.54% | -102.29% | -102.29% | -102.29% | -102.29% | -102.29% |
| EBIAT | 43.89 | 21.11 | -247.08 | 5.15 | -38.83 | -7.19 | -12.69 | -5.04 | -4.31 | -3.69 | -3.16 | -2.70 |
| Depreciation | - | - | - | - | - | 0.25 | 0.50 | 0.30 | 0.26 | 0.22 | 0.19 | 0.16 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -72.02 | 48.41 | -5.29 | 126.26 | 42.57 | 8.03 | -7.09 | 1.90 | 1.63 | 1.39 | 1.19 |
| Inventories | - | -152.66 | 14.28 | 213.45 | 23.19 | -1.58 | 9.02 | -6.02 | 1.21 | 1.04 | 0.89 | 0.76 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 48.79 | -26.49 | -83.83 | 12.48 | -20.68 | -8.93 | -0.97 | -1.29 | -1.11 | -0.95 | -0.81 |
| Capital Expenditure | -7.03 | -42.42 | -8.04 | -0.20 | -0.77 | -0.20 | -0.72 | -0.69 | -0.59 | -0.51 | -0.43 | -0.37 |
| UFCF | 36.86 | -197.19 | -218.92 | 129.28 | 122.33 | 13.18 | -4.78 | -19.50 | -2.82 | -2.41 | -2.07 | -1.77 |
| WACC | ||||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -17.94 | -2.39 | -1.88 | -1.48 | -1.16 | |||||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -24.84 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 8.74 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -1.84 |
| Terminal Value | -38.78 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -25.51 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -50.35 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -37.72 |
| Equity Value | -12.63 |
| Shares Outstanding | 12.53 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -1.01 |