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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Suncor Energy Inc.

Suncor Energy Inc. (SU)

Energy

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 37,873.1234,843.2721,459.9720,065.0725,199.7228,878.8828,145.3627,430.4726,733.7326,054.7025,392.91
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 11,861.8610,634.175,948.705,138.679,046.709,726.418,637.818,418.418,204.587,996.197,793.08
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 7,082.275,181.19384.13387.264,452.795,279.063,070.662,992.662,916.652,842.572,770.37
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 4,779.595,452.975,564.574,751.414,593.914,447.355,567.155,425.755,287.935,153.625,022.72
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 4,889.424,728.232,927.142,243.282,099.141,646.102,949.632,874.712,801.702,730.532,661.18
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 4,938.653,679.451,989.342,367.682,577.932,373.842,820.172,748.532,678.722,610.682,544.37
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 3,707.782,982.582,233.982,409.822,724.092,339.192,808.912,737.562,668.032,600.262,534.21
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 6,661.884,909.423,837.044,157.484,873.634,181.664,869.154,745.474,624.944,507.464,392.97
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -5,484.03-5,797.92-4,620.33-4,727.33-3,880.76-3,941.97-5,111.20-4,981.37-4,854.85-4,731.53-4,611.35
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 27.99
Diluted Shares Outstanding -
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 33.92
After-tax Cost of Debt -1.65
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.88
Total Debt 10,288.89
Total Equity -
Total Capital 10,288.89
Debt Weighting 100.00
Equity Weighting 0.00
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 37,873.1234,843.2721,459.9720,065.0725,199.7228,878.8828,145.3627,430.4726,733.7326,054.7025,392.91
EBITDA 11,861.8610,634.175,948.705,138.679,046.709,726.418,637.818,418.418,204.587,996.197,793.08
EBIT 7,082.275,181.19384.13387.264,452.795,279.063,070.662,992.662,916.652,842.572,770.37
Tax Rate 38.66%41.20%1.58%-478.67%24.65%33.92%-56.44%-56.44%-56.44%-56.44%-56.44%
EBIAT 4,344.223,046.63378.072,240.923,355.403,488.654,803.894,681.874,562.954,447.054,334.09
Depreciation 4,779.595,452.975,564.574,751.414,593.914,447.355,567.155,425.755,287.935,153.625,022.72
Accounts Receivable -1,259.211,690.11-378.34-210.25204.09-446.3271.6369.8168.0466.31
Inventories -725.19748.60-175.83-314.28384.90-469.7271.3569.5367.7766.05
Accounts Payable --1,752.47-1,072.37320.44716.14-691.96687.48-123.68-120.53-117.47-114.49
Capital Expenditure -313.89-1,177.59107.00-846.5761.211,169.23-129.82-126.53-123.31-120.18
UFCF 9,123.819,045.436,131.396,865.607,294.357,894.2311,311.719,997.099,743.179,495.699,254.50
WACC
PV UFCF 10,950.359,368.568,838.928,339.227,867.76
SUM PV UFCF 78,934.22

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 3.30
Free cash flow (t + 1) 9,624.68
Terminal Value -1,374,954.06
Present Value of Terminal Value -1,168,924.82

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -1,089,990.61
Net Debt 8,642.79
Equity Value -1,098,633.40
Shares Outstanding -
Equity Value Per Share -Infinity

Results Unlevered DCF

Wacc / Long-term Growth -4 (%)-3 (%)-2 (%)-1 (%)0 (%)1 (%)2 (%)3 (%)4 (%)
5.30 (%) Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell
4.80 (%) Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell
4.30 (%) Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell
3.80 (%) Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell
3.30 (%) Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy -Infinity Sell
2.80 (%) Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy -Infinity Sell
2.30 (%) Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy
1.80 (%) Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy
1.30 (%) Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy