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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Suncor Energy Inc.

Suncor Energy Inc. (SU)

Energy

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 37,873.1234,843.2721,459.9720,065.0725,199.7228,878.8828,145.3627,430.4726,733.7326,054.7025,392.91
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 11,861.8610,634.175,948.705,138.679,046.709,726.418,665.968,445.848,231.328,022.247,818.48
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 7,082.275,181.19384.13387.264,452.795,279.063,433.733,346.523,261.523,178.673,097.93
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 4,779.595,452.975,564.574,751.414,593.914,447.355,232.225,099.324,969.804,843.574,720.54
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 4,889.424,728.232,927.142,243.282,099.141,646.103,065.032,987.182,911.302,837.362,765.29
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 4,938.653,679.451,989.342,367.682,577.932,373.842,960.892,885.692,812.392,740.952,671.33
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 3,707.782,982.582,233.982,409.822,724.092,339.192,800.462,729.332,660.012,592.442,526.59
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 6,661.884,909.423,837.044,157.484,873.634,181.664,883.224,759.194,638.304,520.494,405.67
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -5,484.03-5,797.92-4,620.33-4,727.33-3,880.76-3,941.97-4,936.70-4,811.30-4,689.10-4,569.99-4,453.92
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 30.97
Diluted Shares Outstanding 1,215.54
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 33.92
After-tax Cost of Debt -1.65
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.88
Total Debt 10,288.89
Total Equity 37,645.37
Total Capital 47,934.26
Debt Weighting 21.46
Equity Weighting 78.54
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 37,873.1234,843.2721,459.9720,065.0725,199.7228,878.8828,145.3627,430.4726,733.7326,054.7025,392.91
EBITDA 11,861.8610,634.175,948.705,138.679,046.709,726.418,665.968,445.848,231.328,022.247,818.48
EBIT 7,082.275,181.19384.13387.264,452.795,279.063,433.733,346.523,261.523,178.673,097.93
Tax Rate 38.66%41.20%1.58%-478.67%24.65%33.92%-56.44%-56.44%-56.44%-56.44%-56.44%
EBIAT 4,344.223,046.63378.072,240.923,355.403,488.655,371.905,235.455,102.474,972.874,846.56
Depreciation 4,779.595,452.975,564.574,751.414,593.914,447.355,232.225,099.324,969.804,843.574,720.54
Accounts Receivable -1,259.211,690.11-378.34-210.25204.09-587.0575.2173.3071.4369.62
Inventories -725.19748.60-175.83-314.28384.90-461.2771.1369.3367.5665.85
Accounts Payable --1,752.47-1,072.37320.44716.14-691.96701.56-124.03-120.88-117.81-114.82
Capital Expenditure -313.89-1,177.59107.00-846.5761.21994.73-125.39-122.21-119.10-116.08
UFCF 9,123.819,045.436,131.396,865.607,294.357,894.2311,252.0910,231.699,971.809,718.529,471.67
WACC
PV UFCF 10,225.458,449.797,483.806,628.235,870.48
SUM PV UFCF 55,786.67

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 10.04
Free cash flow (t + 1) 9,850.54
Terminal Value 163,088.35
Present Value of Terminal Value 101,081.11

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 156,867.78
Net Debt 8,642.79
Equity Value 148,224.99
Shares Outstanding 1,215.54
Equity Value Per Share 121.94