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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Syneos Health Inc.

Syneos Health Inc. (SYNH)

Healthcare

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 995.091,178.781,399.221,610.642,672.214,390.445,992.518,179.1811,163.7615,237.4220,797.55
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 88.5679.33202.61205.36131.74461.44582.47795.021,085.121,481.082,021.52
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 30.0524.75146.64146.08-48.10187.91271.46370.52505.72690.25942.13
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 58.5154.5855.9759.27179.84273.52311.01424.50579.40790.821,079.39
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 97.52126.9585.49103.08322.00155.86485.99663.33905.381,235.751,686.68
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 228.87248.37298.03385.431,015.971,256.541,557.452,125.772,901.463,960.205,405.28
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories -----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 9.5516.5022.5323.6858.5298.7898.88134.96184.20251.42343.16
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -17.71-25.58-21.13-31.41-43.82-54.44-102.47-139.86-190.90-260.56-355.64
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 57.42
Diluted Shares Outstanding 103.41
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 57.59
After-tax Cost of Debt -2.83
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 13.84
Total Debt 2,763.78
Total Equity 5,938.03
Total Capital 8,701.81
Debt Weighting 31.76
Equity Weighting 68.24
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 995.091,178.781,399.221,610.642,672.214,390.445,992.518,179.1811,163.7615,237.4220,797.55
EBITDA 88.5679.33202.61205.36131.74461.44582.47795.021,085.121,481.082,021.52
EBIT 30.0524.75146.64146.08-48.10187.91271.46370.52505.72690.25942.13
Tax Rate -35.36%16.78%10.63%16.02%-23.77%57.59%6.98%6.98%6.98%6.98%6.98%
EBIAT 40.6820.60131.05122.68-59.5379.70252.50344.64470.40642.05876.34
Depreciation 58.5154.5855.9759.27179.84273.52311.01424.50579.40790.821,079.39
Accounts Receivable --19.50-49.66-87.39-630.55-240.57-300.91-568.31-775.69-1,058.74-1,445.08
Inventories -----------
Accounts Payable -6.956.021.1534.8540.260.0936.0849.2567.2291.74
Capital Expenditure -7.87-4.4510.2812.4210.6248.0337.3951.0469.6695.08
UFCF 99.1970.50138.92105.99-462.98163.53310.73274.30374.39511.01697.48
WACC
PV UFCF 282.17226.20280.37347.51430.72
SUM PV UFCF 1,008.86

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 10.12
Free cash flow (t + 1) 725.37
Terminal Value 11,852.52
Present Value of Terminal Value 7,319.47

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 8,328.33
Net Debt 2,607.92
Equity Value 5,720.41
Shares Outstanding 103.41
Equity Value Per Share 55.32