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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Syneos Health Inc.

Syneos Health Inc. (SYNH)

Healthcare

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 995.091,178.781,399.221,610.642,672.214,390.445,992.518,179.1811,163.7615,237.4220,797.55
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 88.5679.33202.61205.36131.74461.44582.47795.021,085.121,481.082,021.52
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 30.0524.75146.64146.08-48.10187.91271.46370.52505.72690.25942.13
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 58.5154.5855.9759.27179.84273.52311.01424.50579.40790.821,079.39
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 97.52126.9585.49103.08322.00155.86485.99663.33905.381,235.751,686.68
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 228.87248.37298.03385.431,015.971,256.541,557.452,125.772,901.463,960.205,405.28
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories -----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 9.5516.5022.5323.6858.5298.7898.88134.96184.20251.42343.16
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -17.71-25.58-21.13-31.41-43.82-54.44-102.47-139.86-190.90-260.56-355.64
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 51.24
Diluted Shares Outstanding 104.70
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 57.59
After-tax Cost of Debt -2.83
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 13.84
Total Debt 2,763.78
Total Equity 5,364.88
Total Capital 8,128.66
Debt Weighting 34.00
Equity Weighting 66.00
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 995.091,178.781,399.221,610.642,672.214,390.445,992.518,179.1811,163.7615,237.4220,797.55
EBITDA 88.5679.33202.61205.36131.74461.44582.47795.021,085.121,481.082,021.52
EBIT 30.0524.75146.64146.08-48.10187.91271.46370.52505.72690.25942.13
Tax Rate -35.36%16.78%10.63%16.02%-23.77%57.59%6.98%6.98%6.98%6.98%6.98%
EBIAT 40.6820.60131.05122.68-59.5379.70252.50344.64470.40642.05876.34
Depreciation 58.5154.5855.9759.27179.84273.52311.01424.50579.40790.821,079.39
Accounts Receivable --19.50-49.66-87.39-630.55-240.57-300.91-568.31-775.69-1,058.74-1,445.08
Inventories -----------
Accounts Payable -6.956.021.1534.8540.260.0936.0849.2567.2291.74
Capital Expenditure -7.87-4.4510.2812.4210.6248.0337.3951.0469.6695.08
UFCF 99.1970.50138.92105.99-462.98163.53310.73274.30374.39511.01697.48
WACC
PV UFCF 282.84227.27282.36350.81435.84
SUM PV UFCF 1,028.15

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 9.86
Free cash flow (t + 1) 725.37
Terminal Value 12,378.40
Present Value of Terminal Value 7,735.11

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 8,763.26
Net Debt 2,607.92
Equity Value 6,155.35
Shares Outstanding 104.70
Equity Value Per Share 58.79

Results Unlevered DCF

Wacc / Long-term Growth -4 (%)-3 (%)-2 (%)-1 (%)0 (%)1 (%)2 (%)3 (%)4 (%)
11.86 (%) 21.85 Sell 25.67 Sell 30.27 Sell 35.90 Sell 42.97 Sell 52.10 Buy 64.34 Buy 81.62 Buy 107.86 Buy
11.36 (%) 19.54 Sell 22.99 Sell 27.09 Sell 32.07 Sell 38.25 Sell 46.10 Sell 56.42 Buy 70.60 Buy 91.27 Buy
10.86 (%) 17.44 Sell 20.55 Sell 24.23 Sell 28.66 Sell 34.09 Sell 40.90 Sell 49.70 Sell 61.50 Buy 78.16 Buy
10.36 (%) 15.51 Sell 18.33 Sell 21.65 Sell 25.61 Sell 30.41 Sell 36.36 Sell 43.93 Sell 53.88 Buy 67.54 Buy
9.86 (%) 13.74 Sell 16.31 Sell 19.31 Sell 22.86 Sell 27.13 Sell 32.37 Sell 38.93 Sell 47.41 Sell 58.79 Buy
9.36 (%) 12.12 Sell 14.46 Sell 17.18 Sell 20.37 Sell 24.19 Sell 28.82 Sell 34.56 Sell 41.86 Sell 51.45 Buy
8.86 (%) 10.61 Sell 12.75 Sell 15.23 Sell 18.12 Sell 21.54 Sell 25.66 Sell 30.71 Sell 37.05 Sell 45.22 Sell
8.36 (%) 9.22 Sell 11.19 Sell 13.44 Sell 16.07 Sell 19.15 Sell 22.83 Sell 27.30 Sell 32.84 Sell 39.88 Sell
7.86 (%) 7.94 Sell 9.74 Sell 11.81 Sell 14.19 Sell 16.98 Sell 20.29 Sell 24.26 Sell 29.13 Sell 35.24 Sell