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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


AT&T Inc.

AT&T Inc. (T)

Communication Services

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 128,752.00132,447.18146,804.46163,789.73160,546.70170,757.47180,883.38191,609.77202,972.23215,008.48227,758.48
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 50,084.5331,946.2646,492.9750,217.9345,434.7160,670.1354,355.4657,578.7460,993.1564,610.0568,441.42
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 31,685.8713,668.5524,472.3024,371.9121,047.6732,239.0126,716.4828,300.7629,979.0031,756.7533,639.93
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 18,398.6618,277.7122,020.6725,846.0224,387.0428,431.1227,638.9829,277.9731,014.1632,853.3034,801.50
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 3,334.688,609.075,123.485,781.7850,491.945,208.1017,364.8018,394.5419,485.3320,640.8121,864.81
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 12,913.8314,529.4616,530.1816,788.4516,520.2626,467.4121,091.0022,341.7023,666.5625,069.9926,556.64
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories -----7,718.248,175.938,660.769,174.349,718.3810,294.68
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 21,102.4523,588.8430,373.8431,136.4334,469.3843,184.5637,714.1939,950.6442,319.7144,829.2747,487.64
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -20,947.95-21,204.79-19,216.70-21,521.97-20,646.31-20,764.11-24,328.82-25,771.51-27,299.76-28,918.64-30,633.52
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 34.39
Diluted Shares Outstanding -
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 20.26
After-tax Cost of Debt -0.96
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.27
Total Debt 166,250.00
Total Equity -
Total Capital 166,250.00
Debt Weighting 100.00
Equity Weighting 0.00
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 128,752.00132,447.18146,804.46163,789.73160,546.70170,757.47180,883.38191,609.77202,972.23215,008.48227,758.48
EBITDA 50,084.5331,946.2646,492.9750,217.9345,434.7160,670.1354,355.4657,578.7460,993.1564,610.0568,441.42
EBIT 31,685.8713,668.5524,472.3024,371.9121,047.6732,239.0126,716.4828,300.7629,979.0031,756.7533,639.93
Tax Rate 33.62%35.97%34.42%33.30%-99.77%20.26%9.63%9.63%9.63%9.63%9.63%
EBIAT 21,033.318,751.8916,048.3016,255.4642,046.8025,708.9224,142.7525,574.4227,090.9828,697.4830,399.24
Depreciation 18,398.6618,277.7122,020.6725,846.0224,387.0428,431.1227,638.9829,277.9731,014.1632,853.3034,801.50
Accounts Receivable --1,615.63-2,000.73-258.27268.19-9,947.155,376.40-1,250.70-1,324.86-1,403.43-1,486.65
Inventories -------457.69-484.83-513.58-544.04-576.30
Accounts Payable -2,486.396,785.00762.593,332.958,715.19-5,470.382,236.452,369.072,509.562,658.38
Capital Expenditure -256.84-1,988.092,305.27-875.67117.803,564.711,442.701,528.251,618.881,714.88
UFCF 39,431.9728,157.2140,865.1544,911.0769,159.3253,025.8754,794.7856,796.0160,164.0163,731.7467,511.03
WACC
PV UFCF 52,692.3552,521.2053,501.0254,499.1255,515.83
SUM PV UFCF 450,007.30

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 3.99
Free cash flow (t + 1) 70,211.47
Terminal Value -702,114,737.16
Present Value of Terminal Value -577,364,660.31

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -576,914,653.02
Net Debt 161,041.90
Equity Value -577,075,694.92
Shares Outstanding -
Equity Value Per Share -Infinity

Results Unlevered DCF

Wacc / Long-term Growth -4 (%)-3 (%)-2 (%)-1 (%)0 (%)1 (%)2 (%)3 (%)4 (%)
5.99 (%) Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell
5.49 (%) Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell
4.99 (%) Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy -Infinity Sell -Infinity Sell
4.49 (%) Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy -Infinity Sell
3.99 (%) Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy -Infinity Sell
3.49 (%) Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy
2.99 (%) Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy
2.49 (%) Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy
1.99 (%) Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy Infinity Buy