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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Transdigm Group Incorporated Inc.

Transdigm Group Incorporated Inc. (TDG)

Industrials

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 1,924.402,372.982,707.093,171.363,504.353,811.335,223.436,188.207,331.168,685.2310,289.39
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 621.39766.001,145.911,370.661,549.271,773.792,196.982,501.272,963.263,510.574,158.97
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 547.88669.651,052.251,248.881,408.401,643.831,971.322,263.022,681.013,176.193,762.83
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 73.5196.3493.67121.78140.87129.97225.65238.25282.25334.38396.14
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 564.81819.63714.131,586.95650.412,072.981,467.262,133.692,527.782,994.673,547.78
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 290.39351.20443.96576.24636.04704.331,067.671,074.271,272.691,507.761,786.24
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 413.55459.17591.50724.02730.66805.331,232.731,335.411,582.061,874.272,220.45
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 106.80115.80142.93156.03148.93173.42276.84306.93363.63430.79510.35
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -35.60-34.17-54.95-44.08-71.14-73.18-101.33-111.39-131.96-156.33-185.21
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 567.45
Diluted Shares Outstanding 56.27
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 19.97
After-tax Cost of Debt -0.95
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.43
Total Debt 16,469.22
Total Equity 31,927.57
Total Capital 48,396.80
Debt Weighting 34.03
Equity Weighting 65.97
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 1,924.402,372.982,707.093,171.363,504.353,811.335,223.436,188.207,331.168,685.2310,289.39
EBITDA 621.39766.001,145.911,370.661,549.271,773.792,196.982,501.272,963.263,510.574,158.97
EBIT 547.88669.651,052.251,248.881,408.401,643.831,971.322,263.022,681.013,176.193,762.83
Tax Rate 52.55%43.99%29.93%23.75%25.92%2.45%19.97%28.37%28.37%28.37%28.37%
EBIAT 259.95375.07737.28952.291,043.291,603.581,577.711,621.091,920.502,275.222,695.45
Depreciation 73.5196.3493.67121.78140.87129.97225.65238.25282.25334.38396.14
Accounts Receivable --60.81-92.76-132.27-59.80-68.29-363.34-6.60-198.42-235.07-278.48
Inventories --45.62-132.33-132.52-6.64-74.68-427.40-102.68-246.65-292.21-346.18
Accounts Payable -9.0027.1313.10-7.1024.48103.4330.0956.6967.1679.57
Capital Expenditure --1.4320.78-10.8727.062.0428.1610.0520.5724.3728.87
UFCF 333.47372.55653.77811.501,137.681,617.091,144.211,790.191,834.952,173.862,575.38
WACC
PV UFCF 1,528.001,446.971,583.731,733.41
SUM PV UFCF 8,074.10

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.24
Free cash flow (t + 1) 2,678.39
Terminal Value 63,169.58
Present Value of Terminal Value 42,517.63

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 50,591.73
Net Debt 15,001.96
Equity Value 35,589.78
Shares Outstanding 56.27
Equity Value Per Share 632.54