Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Transdigm Group Incorporated Inc. (TDG)
Industrials
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,924.40 | 2,372.98 | 2,707.09 | 3,171.36 | 3,504.35 | 3,811.33 | 5,223.43 | 6,188.20 | 7,331.16 | 8,685.23 | 10,289.39 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | |||||||||||
| EBITDA | 788.62 | 974.34 | 1,125.61 | 1,327.53 | 1,551.73 | 1,733.39 | 2,159.37 | 2,621.94 | 3,106.21 | 3,679.93 | 4,359.61 |
| EBITDA (%) | |||||||||||
| EBIT | 749.36 | 927.83 | 1,073.90 | 1,267.91 | 1,479.54 | 1,654.88 | 1,926.40 | 2,477.14 | 2,934.66 | 3,476.70 | 4,118.84 |
| EBIT (%) | |||||||||||
| Depreciation | 39.26 | 46.51 | 51.71 | 59.62 | 72.19 | 78.51 | 232.97 | 144.80 | 171.55 | 203.23 | 240.77 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected |
| Total Cash | 564.81 | 819.63 | 714.13 | 1,586.95 | 650.41 | 2,072.98 | 1,467.26 | 2,133.69 | 2,527.78 | 2,994.67 | 3,547.78 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | |||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 290.39 | 351.20 | 443.96 | 576.24 | 636.04 | 704.33 | 1,067.67 | 1,074.27 | 1,272.69 | 1,507.76 | 1,786.24 |
| Account Receivables (%) | |||||||||||
| Inventories | 413.55 | 459.17 | 591.50 | 724.02 | 730.66 | 805.33 | 1,232.73 | 1,335.41 | 1,582.06 | 1,874.27 | 2,220.45 |
| Inventories (%) | |||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 106.80 | 115.80 | 142.93 | 156.03 | 148.93 | 173.42 | 276.84 | 306.93 | 363.63 | 430.79 | 510.35 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | |||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | 35.60 | 34.17 | 54.95 | 44.08 | 71.14 | 73.18 | 101.33 | 111.39 | 131.96 | 156.33 | 185.21 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 636.66 |
|---|---|
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 56.27 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 19.97 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | -0.95 |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 10.57 |
| Total Debt | 16,469.22 |
| Total Equity | 35,821.67 |
| Total Capital | 52,290.90 |
| Debt Weighting | 31.50 |
| Equity Weighting | 68.50 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,924.40 | 2,372.98 | 2,707.09 | 3,171.36 | 3,504.35 | 3,811.33 | 5,223.43 | 6,188.20 | 7,331.16 | 8,685.23 | 10,289.39 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 788.62 | 974.34 | 1,125.61 | 1,327.53 | 1,551.73 | 1,733.39 | 2,159.37 | 2,621.94 | 3,106.21 | 3,679.93 | 4,359.61 |
| EBIT | 749.36 | 927.83 | 1,073.90 | 1,267.91 | 1,479.54 | 1,654.88 | 1,926.40 | 2,477.14 | 2,934.66 | 3,476.70 | 4,118.84 |
| Tax Rate | 32.49% | 31.57% | 29.77% | 23.66% | 25.92% | 2.45% | 19.97% | 23.69% | 23.69% | 23.69% | 23.69% |
| EBIAT | 505.92 | 634.91 | 754.15 | 967.98 | 1,095.98 | 1,614.36 | 1,541.75 | 1,890.31 | 2,239.45 | 2,653.08 | 3,143.10 |
| Depreciation | 39.26 | 46.51 | 51.71 | 59.62 | 72.19 | 78.51 | 232.97 | 144.80 | 171.55 | 203.23 | 240.77 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -60.81 | -92.76 | -132.27 | -59.80 | -68.29 | -363.34 | -6.60 | -198.42 | -235.07 | -278.48 |
| Inventories | - | -45.62 | -132.33 | -132.52 | -6.64 | -74.68 | -427.40 | -102.68 | -246.65 | -292.21 | -346.18 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 9.00 | 27.13 | 13.10 | -7.10 | 24.48 | 103.43 | 30.09 | 56.69 | 67.16 | 79.57 |
| Capital Expenditure | - | 1.43 | -20.78 | 10.87 | -27.06 | -2.04 | -28.16 | -10.05 | -20.57 | -24.37 | -28.87 |
| UFCF | 545.18 | 585.42 | 587.12 | 786.77 | 1,067.58 | 1,572.35 | 1,059.26 | 1,945.87 | 2,002.05 | 2,371.83 | 2,809.90 |
| WACC | |||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 1,793.43 | 1,700.65 | 1,856.92 | 2,027.55 | |||||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 8,467.62 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 8.50 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 2,922.30 |
| Terminal Value | 64,940.01 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 43,188.05 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 51,655.68 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 15,001.96 |
| Equity Value | 36,653.72 |
| Shares Outstanding | 56.27 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 651.45 |