Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Transdigm Group Incorporated Inc. (TDG)
Industrials
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,924.40 | 2,372.98 | 2,707.09 | 3,171.36 | 3,504.35 | 3,811.33 | 5,223.43 | 6,188.20 | 7,331.16 | 8,685.23 | 10,289.39 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | |||||||||||
| EBITDA | 621.39 | 766.00 | 1,145.91 | 1,370.66 | 1,549.27 | 1,773.79 | 2,196.98 | 2,501.27 | 2,963.26 | 3,510.57 | 4,158.97 |
| EBITDA (%) | |||||||||||
| EBIT | 547.88 | 669.65 | 1,052.25 | 1,248.88 | 1,408.40 | 1,643.83 | 1,971.32 | 2,263.02 | 2,681.01 | 3,176.19 | 3,762.83 |
| EBIT (%) | |||||||||||
| Depreciation | 73.51 | 96.34 | 93.67 | 121.78 | 140.87 | 129.97 | 225.65 | 238.25 | 282.25 | 334.38 | 396.14 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected |
| Total Cash | 564.81 | 819.63 | 714.13 | 1,586.95 | 650.41 | 2,072.98 | 1,467.26 | 2,133.69 | 2,527.78 | 2,994.67 | 3,547.78 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | |||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 290.39 | 351.20 | 443.96 | 576.24 | 636.04 | 704.33 | 1,067.67 | 1,074.27 | 1,272.69 | 1,507.76 | 1,786.24 |
| Account Receivables (%) | |||||||||||
| Inventories | 413.55 | 459.17 | 591.50 | 724.02 | 730.66 | 805.33 | 1,232.73 | 1,335.41 | 1,582.06 | 1,874.27 | 2,220.45 |
| Inventories (%) | |||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 106.80 | 115.80 | 142.93 | 156.03 | 148.93 | 173.42 | 276.84 | 306.93 | 363.63 | 430.79 | 510.35 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | |||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -35.60 | -34.17 | -54.95 | -44.08 | -71.14 | -73.18 | -101.33 | -111.39 | -131.96 | -156.33 | -185.21 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 567.45 |
|---|---|
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 56.27 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | 19.97 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | -0.95 |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 10.43 |
| Total Debt | 16,469.22 |
| Total Equity | 31,927.57 |
| Total Capital | 48,396.80 |
| Debt Weighting | 34.03 |
| Equity Weighting | 65.97 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Actual | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected |
| Revenue | 1,924.40 | 2,372.98 | 2,707.09 | 3,171.36 | 3,504.35 | 3,811.33 | 5,223.43 | 6,188.20 | 7,331.16 | 8,685.23 | 10,289.39 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 621.39 | 766.00 | 1,145.91 | 1,370.66 | 1,549.27 | 1,773.79 | 2,196.98 | 2,501.27 | 2,963.26 | 3,510.57 | 4,158.97 |
| EBIT | 547.88 | 669.65 | 1,052.25 | 1,248.88 | 1,408.40 | 1,643.83 | 1,971.32 | 2,263.02 | 2,681.01 | 3,176.19 | 3,762.83 |
| Tax Rate | 52.55% | 43.99% | 29.93% | 23.75% | 25.92% | 2.45% | 19.97% | 28.37% | 28.37% | 28.37% | 28.37% |
| EBIAT | 259.95 | 375.07 | 737.28 | 952.29 | 1,043.29 | 1,603.58 | 1,577.71 | 1,621.09 | 1,920.50 | 2,275.22 | 2,695.45 |
| Depreciation | 73.51 | 96.34 | 93.67 | 121.78 | 140.87 | 129.97 | 225.65 | 238.25 | 282.25 | 334.38 | 396.14 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -60.81 | -92.76 | -132.27 | -59.80 | -68.29 | -363.34 | -6.60 | -198.42 | -235.07 | -278.48 |
| Inventories | - | -45.62 | -132.33 | -132.52 | -6.64 | -74.68 | -427.40 | -102.68 | -246.65 | -292.21 | -346.18 |
| Accounts Payable | - | 9.00 | 27.13 | 13.10 | -7.10 | 24.48 | 103.43 | 30.09 | 56.69 | 67.16 | 79.57 |
| Capital Expenditure | - | -1.43 | 20.78 | -10.87 | 27.06 | 2.04 | 28.16 | 10.05 | 20.57 | 24.37 | 28.87 |
| UFCF | 333.47 | 372.55 | 653.77 | 811.50 | 1,137.68 | 1,617.09 | 1,144.21 | 1,790.19 | 1,834.95 | 2,173.86 | 2,575.38 |
| WACC | |||||||||||
| PV UFCF | 1,528.00 | 1,446.97 | 1,583.73 | 1,733.41 | |||||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 8,074.10 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 8.24 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | 2,678.39 |
| Terminal Value | 63,169.58 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 42,517.63 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | 50,591.73 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | 15,001.96 |
| Equity Value | 35,589.78 |
| Shares Outstanding | 56.27 |
| Equity Value Per Share | 632.54 |