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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Transdigm Group Incorporated Inc.

Transdigm Group Incorporated Inc. (TDG)

Industrials

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 1,924.402,372.982,707.093,171.363,504.353,811.335,223.436,188.207,331.168,685.2310,289.39
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 788.62974.341,125.611,327.531,551.731,733.392,159.372,621.943,106.213,679.934,359.61
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 749.36927.831,073.901,267.911,479.541,654.881,926.402,477.142,934.663,476.704,118.84
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 39.2646.5151.7159.6272.1978.51232.97144.80171.55203.23240.77
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 564.81819.63714.131,586.95650.412,072.981,467.262,133.692,527.782,994.673,547.78
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 290.39351.20443.96576.24636.04704.331,067.671,074.271,272.691,507.761,786.24
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 413.55459.17591.50724.02730.66805.331,232.731,335.411,582.061,874.272,220.45
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 106.80115.80142.93156.03148.93173.42276.84306.93363.63430.79510.35
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure 35.6034.1754.9544.0871.1473.18101.33111.39131.96156.33185.21
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 636.66
Diluted Shares Outstanding 56.27
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 19.97
After-tax Cost of Debt -0.95
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.57
Total Debt 16,469.22
Total Equity 35,821.67
Total Capital 52,290.90
Debt Weighting 31.50
Equity Weighting 68.50
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Actual
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 1,924.402,372.982,707.093,171.363,504.353,811.335,223.436,188.207,331.168,685.2310,289.39
EBITDA 788.62974.341,125.611,327.531,551.731,733.392,159.372,621.943,106.213,679.934,359.61
EBIT 749.36927.831,073.901,267.911,479.541,654.881,926.402,477.142,934.663,476.704,118.84
Tax Rate 32.49%31.57%29.77%23.66%25.92%2.45%19.97%23.69%23.69%23.69%23.69%
EBIAT 505.92634.91754.15967.981,095.981,614.361,541.751,890.312,239.452,653.083,143.10
Depreciation 39.2646.5151.7159.6272.1978.51232.97144.80171.55203.23240.77
Accounts Receivable --60.81-92.76-132.27-59.80-68.29-363.34-6.60-198.42-235.07-278.48
Inventories --45.62-132.33-132.52-6.64-74.68-427.40-102.68-246.65-292.21-346.18
Accounts Payable -9.0027.1313.10-7.1024.48103.4330.0956.6967.1679.57
Capital Expenditure -1.43-20.7810.87-27.06-2.04-28.16-10.05-20.57-24.37-28.87
UFCF 545.18585.42587.12786.771,067.581,572.351,059.261,945.872,002.052,371.832,809.90
WACC
PV UFCF 1,793.431,700.651,856.922,027.55
SUM PV UFCF 8,467.62

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 8.50
Free cash flow (t + 1) 2,922.30
Terminal Value 64,940.01
Present Value of Terminal Value 43,188.05

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 51,655.68
Net Debt 15,001.96
Equity Value 36,653.72
Shares Outstanding 56.27
Equity Value Per Share 651.45