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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Tenaris S.A. American Depositary Shares

Tenaris S.A. American Depositary Shares (TS)

Basic Materials

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Projected
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 10,597.0010,338.437,101.474,294.265,289.244,626.504,046.803,539.733,096.202,708.252,368.91
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 2,883.442,427.46852.18718.861,063.14920.67805.31704.41616.14538.94471.41
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 2,273.061,811.29193.1656.68454.35477.45417.63365.30319.53279.49244.47
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 610.39616.17659.02662.17608.79443.22387.68339.11296.62259.45226.94
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Projected
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 1,249.391,838.172,141.091,633.111,192.191,113.14973.66851.66744.95651.60569.96
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 2,004.952,002.551,215.771,025.901,240.86950.75831.62727.42636.27556.55486.81
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 2,703.292,780.001,842.831,563.972,367.991,476.321,291.331,129.53988.00864.20755.92
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 835.04832.24504.20556.97751.07464.50406.30355.39310.86271.91237.84
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -753.45-1,088.64-1,131.97-787.14-558.01-577.85-505.44-442.11-386.72-338.26-295.88
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 21.46
Diluted Shares Outstanding 590.00
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -27.34
After-tax Cost of Debt 1.42
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 10.71
Total Debt 35.00
Total Equity 12,661.40
Total Capital 12,696.40
Debt Weighting 0.28
Equity Weighting 99.72
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Projected
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 10,597.0010,338.437,101.474,294.265,289.244,626.504,046.803,539.733,096.202,708.252,368.91
EBITDA 2,883.442,427.46852.18718.861,063.14920.67805.31704.41616.14538.94471.41
EBIT 2,273.061,811.29193.1656.68454.35477.45417.63365.30319.53279.49244.47
Tax Rate 29.56%34.41%147.06%-61.76%-27.34%24.39%24.39%24.39%24.39%24.39%24.39%
EBIAT 1,601.051,188.05-90.9091.70578.55361.02315.79276.22241.61211.33184.85
Depreciation 610.39616.17659.02662.17608.79443.22387.68339.11296.62259.45226.94
Accounts Receivable -2.40786.78189.87-214.96290.11119.13104.2091.1579.7269.74
Inventories --76.71937.17278.86-804.02891.68184.98161.80141.53123.80108.28
Accounts Payable --2.80-328.0452.76194.11-286.57-58.20-50.91-44.53-38.95-34.07
Capital Expenditure -335.1943.34-344.84-229.1219.83-72.40-63.33-55.40-48.46-42.38
UFCF 2,211.442,062.302,007.37930.53133.341,719.29876.97767.09670.97586.90513.36
WACC
PV UFCF 1,719.29792.21625.97494.61390.82308.81
SUM PV UFCF 8,213.98

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 10.70
Free cash flow (t + 1) 533.90
Terminal Value 7,968.59
Present Value of Terminal Value 4,793.40

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 13,007.38
Net Debt -1,157.19
Equity Value 14,164.57
Shares Outstanding 590.00
Equity Value Per Share 24.01