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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Tesla Inc.

Tesla Inc. (TSLA)

Consumer Cyclical

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 2,013.503,198.444,046.027,000.0311,758.6521,460.7034,716.9856,161.6690,852.72146,972.44237,757.32
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 53.96114.82-222.13366.8095.251,671.79847.091,370.342,216.813,586.135,801.28
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -61.21-186.79-716.96-667.80-1,632.10-388.44-2,996.08-4,846.75-7,840.59-12,683.72-20,518.46
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 115.17301.61494.831,034.601,727.352,060.233,843.176,217.1010,057.4016,269.8526,319.74
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 845.871,922.261,204.103,392.913,367.683,684.8013,084.8321,167.3334,242.3955,393.9189,610.73
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 49.13226.45169.12499.10515.03948.561,715.022,774.394,488.127,260.4411,745.21
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 340.28953.771,277.732,067.112,263.543,113.958,193.2113,254.1521,441.2434,685.5056,110.73
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 304.04777.86916.021,860.612,390.533,403.677,221.1311,681.6318,897.3730,570.2749,453.52
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure 264.17969.771,635.001,281.003,414.712,101.008,158.4913,197.9921,350.3934,538.5255,872.97
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 799.91
Diluted Shares Outstanding 170.53
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 2.85
After-tax Cost of Debt -0.09
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 7.08
Total Debt 9,403.67
Total Equity 136,404.65
Total Capital 145,808.32
Debt Weighting 6.45
Equity Weighting 93.55
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 2,013.503,198.444,046.027,000.0311,758.6521,460.7034,716.9856,161.6690,852.72146,972.44237,757.32
EBITDA 53.96114.82-222.13366.8095.251,671.79847.091,370.342,216.813,586.135,801.28
EBIT -61.21-186.79-716.96-667.80-1,632.10-388.44-2,996.08-4,846.75-7,840.59-12,683.72-20,518.46
Tax Rate -3.62%-3.30%-1.49%9.57%11.21%2.85%2.54%2.54%2.54%2.54%2.54%
EBIAT -63.43-192.96-727.63-603.89-1,449.14-377.36-2,920.09-4,723.83-7,641.74-12,362.05-19,998.09
Depreciation 115.17301.61494.831,034.601,727.352,060.233,843.176,217.1010,057.4016,269.8526,319.74
Accounts Receivable --177.3257.33-329.98-15.93-433.53-766.46-1,059.37-1,713.74-2,772.31-4,484.77
Inventories --613.49-323.96-789.37-196.43-850.41-5,079.26-5,060.94-8,187.09-13,244.25-21,425.23
Accounts Payable -473.82138.16944.59529.931,013.143,817.464,460.497,215.7411,672.9018,883.25
Capital Expenditure --705.60-665.23353.99-2,133.711,313.71-6,057.49-5,039.50-8,152.40-13,188.13-21,334.45
UFCF 51.74-913.93-1,026.51609.95-1,537.942,725.77-7,162.66-5,206.05-8,421.83-13,624.00-22,039.55
WACC
PV UFCF -6,698.46-4,553.12-6,888.24-10,420.93-15,765.39
SUM PV UFCF -30,053.22

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 6.93
Free cash flow (t + 1) -22,921.13
Terminal Value -782,291.04
Present Value of Terminal Value -559,590.75

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -589,643.97
Net Debt 5,718.87
Equity Value -595,362.84
Shares Outstanding 170.53
Equity Value Per Share -3,491.35