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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Twitter Inc.

Twitter Inc. (TWTR)

Technology

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 664.891,402.982,217.982,529.602,443.343,042.454,285.296,035.848,501.4811,974.3316,865.84
Revenue (%)
EBITDA -528.65-334.33-122.2161.22405.60981.80-410.96-578.84-815.29-1,148.34-1,617.43
EBITDA (%)
EBIT -639.56-542.53-434.95-340.999.77556.16-1,065.75-1,501.11-2,114.32-2,978.02-4,194.54
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 110.90208.20312.73402.21395.82425.64654.79922.281,299.031,829.682,577.10
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 2,234.033,621.943,495.313,774.674,403.156,209.349,179.5312,929.3718,211.0125,650.2136,128.32
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 247.34418.51638.78650.61664.35788.601,247.451,757.032,474.783,485.734,909.65
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories -----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 27.9953.17134.19122.18171.03145.12218.98308.43434.43611.89861.84
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -75.73-201.61-347.34-218.56-122.90-470.97-503.95-709.81-999.77-1,408.18-1,983.42
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 30.4
Diluted Shares Outstanding 754.33
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate -184.64
After-tax Cost of Debt 9.28
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 6.45
Total Debt 1,755.32
Total Equity 22,931.51
Total Capital 24,686.83
Debt Weighting 7.11
Equity Weighting 92.89
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 664.891,402.982,217.982,529.602,443.343,042.454,285.296,035.848,501.4811,974.3316,865.84
EBITDA -528.65-334.33-122.2161.22405.60981.80-410.96-578.84-815.29-1,148.34-1,617.43
EBIT -639.56-542.53-434.95-340.999.77556.16-1,065.75-1,501.11-2,114.32-2,978.02-4,194.54
Tax Rate 0.28%0.09%2.30%-3.64%-13.25%-184.64%-33.14%-33.14%-33.14%-33.14%-33.14%
EBIAT -637.76-542.04-424.94-353.4011.071,583.08-1,418.98-1,998.63-2,815.07-3,965.03-5,584.75
Depreciation 110.90208.20312.73402.21395.82425.64654.79922.281,299.031,829.682,577.10
Accounts Receivable --171.17-220.27-11.84-13.73-124.26-458.85-509.58-717.75-1,010.95-1,423.92
Inventories -----------
Accounts Payable -25.1881.01-12.0148.85-25.9173.8589.45125.99177.46249.96
Capital Expenditure -125.88145.73-128.78-95.66348.0732.98205.86289.96408.41575.24
UFCF -526.85-353.95-105.73-103.81346.362,206.62-1,116.20-1,290.62-1,817.84-2,560.43-3,606.37
WACC
PV UFCF -1,043.08-1,127.07-1,483.48-1,952.61-2,570.09
SUM PV UFCF -4,695.69

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.01
Free cash flow (t + 1) -3,750.62
Terminal Value -124,605.37
Present Value of Terminal Value -88,800.40

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value -93,496.09
Net Debt -4,454.03
Equity Value -89,042.06
Shares Outstanding 754.33
Equity Value Per Share -118.04