Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered
Twitter Inc. (TWTR)
Technology
Operating Data
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Projected | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected |
| Revenue | 664.89 | 1,402.98 | 2,217.98 | 2,529.60 | 2,443.34 | 3,042.45 | 4,285.29 | 6,035.84 | 8,501.48 | 11,974.33 | 16,865.84 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (%) | |||||||||||
| EBITDA | -528.65 | -334.33 | -122.21 | 61.22 | 405.60 | 981.80 | -410.96 | -578.84 | -815.29 | -1,148.34 | -1,617.43 |
| EBITDA (%) | |||||||||||
| EBIT | -639.56 | -542.53 | -434.95 | -340.99 | 9.77 | 556.16 | -1,065.75 | -1,501.11 | -2,114.32 | -2,978.02 | -4,194.54 |
| EBIT (%) | |||||||||||
| Depreciation | 110.90 | 208.20 | 312.73 | 402.21 | 395.82 | 425.64 | 654.79 | 922.28 | 1,299.03 | 1,829.68 | 2,577.10 |
| Depreciation (%) |
Balance Sheet Data
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Projected | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected |
| Total Cash | 2,234.03 | 3,621.94 | 3,495.31 | 3,774.67 | 4,403.15 | 6,209.34 | 9,179.53 | 12,929.37 | 18,211.01 | 25,650.21 | 36,128.32 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Cash (%) | |||||||||||
| Account Receivables | 247.34 | 418.51 | 638.78 | 650.61 | 664.35 | 788.60 | 1,247.45 | 1,757.03 | 2,474.78 | 3,485.73 | 4,909.65 |
| Account Receivables (%) | |||||||||||
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Inventories (%) | |||||||||||
| Accounts Payable | 27.99 | 53.17 | 134.19 | 122.18 | 171.03 | 145.12 | 218.98 | 308.43 | 434.43 | 611.89 | 861.84 |
| Accounts Payable (%) | |||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | -75.73 | -201.61 | -347.34 | -218.56 | -122.90 | -470.97 | -503.95 | -709.81 | -999.77 | -1,408.18 | -1,983.42 |
| Capital Expenditure (%) |
Weighted Average Cost Of Capital
| Share price | $ 30.4 |
|---|---|
| Diluted Shares Outstanding | 754.33 |
| Cost of Debt | |
| Tax Rate | -184.64 |
| After-tax Cost of Debt | 9.28 |
| Risk-Free Rate | |
| Market Risk Premium | |
| Cost of Equity | 6.45 |
| Total Debt | 1,755.32 |
| Total Equity | 22,931.51 |
| Total Capital | 24,686.83 |
| Debt Weighting | 7.11 |
| Equity Weighting | 92.89 |
| Wacc |
Build Up Free Cash
Year A/P | 2013 Actual | 2014 Actual | 2015 Actual | 2016 Actual | 2017 Actual | 2018 Actual | 2019 Projected | 2020 Projected | 2021 Projected | 2022 Projected | 2023 Projected |
| Revenue | 664.89 | 1,402.98 | 2,217.98 | 2,529.60 | 2,443.34 | 3,042.45 | 4,285.29 | 6,035.84 | 8,501.48 | 11,974.33 | 16,865.84 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | -528.65 | -334.33 | -122.21 | 61.22 | 405.60 | 981.80 | -410.96 | -578.84 | -815.29 | -1,148.34 | -1,617.43 |
| EBIT | -639.56 | -542.53 | -434.95 | -340.99 | 9.77 | 556.16 | -1,065.75 | -1,501.11 | -2,114.32 | -2,978.02 | -4,194.54 |
| Tax Rate | 0.28% | 0.09% | 2.30% | -3.64% | -13.25% | -184.64% | -33.14% | -33.14% | -33.14% | -33.14% | -33.14% |
| EBIAT | -637.76 | -542.04 | -424.94 | -353.40 | 11.07 | 1,583.08 | -1,418.98 | -1,998.63 | -2,815.07 | -3,965.03 | -5,584.75 |
| Depreciation | 110.90 | 208.20 | 312.73 | 402.21 | 395.82 | 425.64 | 654.79 | 922.28 | 1,299.03 | 1,829.68 | 2,577.10 |
| Accounts Receivable | - | -171.17 | -220.27 | -11.84 | -13.73 | -124.26 | -458.85 | -509.58 | -717.75 | -1,010.95 | -1,423.92 |
| Inventories | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Accounts Payable | - | 25.18 | 81.01 | -12.01 | 48.85 | -25.91 | 73.85 | 89.45 | 125.99 | 177.46 | 249.96 |
| Capital Expenditure | - | 125.88 | 145.73 | -128.78 | -95.66 | 348.07 | 32.98 | 205.86 | 289.96 | 408.41 | 575.24 |
| UFCF | -526.85 | -353.95 | -105.73 | -103.81 | 346.36 | 2,206.62 | -1,116.20 | -1,290.62 | -1,817.84 | -2,560.43 | -3,606.37 |
| WACC | |||||||||||
| PV UFCF | -1,043.08 | -1,127.07 | -1,483.48 | -1,952.61 | -2,570.09 | ||||||
| SUM PV UFCF | -4,695.69 |
Terminal Value
| Growth in perpetuity method: | |
|---|---|
| Long-term growth rate | |
| WACC (%) | 7.01 |
| Free cash flow (t + 1) | -3,750.62 |
| Terminal Value | -124,605.37 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -88,800.40 |
Intrinsic Value
| Enterprise Value | -93,496.09 |
|---|---|
| Net Debt | -4,454.03 |
| Equity Value | -89,042.06 |
| Shares Outstanding | 754.33 |
| Equity Value Per Share | -118.04 |