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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Texas Instruments Incorporated

Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN)

Technology

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 12,205.0013,044.7013,000.3513,370.8614,961.9915,784.9016,630.9817,522.4018,461.6019,451.1420,493.72
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 4,146.045,198.315,439.355,964.747,062.067,764.597,114.737,496.087,897.878,321.208,767.21
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 2,848.653,968.204,305.725,010.066,158.366,811.195,784.256,094.296,420.946,765.117,127.72
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 1,297.391,230.121,133.63954.68903.70953.411,330.481,401.791,476.931,556.091,639.50
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 3,828.713,541.643,217.593,489.794,469.154,233.514,603.454,850.205,110.175,384.075,672.66
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,203.411,245.771,164.831,267.561,277.751,207.551,498.451,578.771,663.391,752.551,846.48
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1,730.671,784.521,691.351,790.361,957.032,217.782,255.162,376.042,503.392,637.572,778.95
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 422.29437.00386.11395.78465.32478.28523.88551.96581.54612.71645.55
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -412.53-384.82-551.21-530.82-695.73-1,131.78-730.10-769.23-810.46-853.90-899.67
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 122.44
Diluted Shares Outstanding 970.00
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 16.54
After-tax Cost of Debt -0.78
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.92
Total Debt 4,319.00
Total Equity 118,766.80
Total Capital 123,085.80
Debt Weighting 3.51
Equity Weighting 96.49
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 12,205.0013,044.7013,000.3513,370.8614,961.9915,784.9016,630.9817,522.4018,461.6019,451.1420,493.72
EBITDA 4,146.045,198.315,439.355,964.747,062.067,764.597,114.737,496.087,897.878,321.208,767.21
EBIT 2,848.653,968.204,305.725,010.066,158.366,811.195,784.256,094.296,420.946,765.117,127.72
Tax Rate 21.50%27.18%29.17%27.08%39.44%16.54%26.82%26.82%26.82%26.82%26.82%
EBIAT 2,236.302,889.593,049.543,653.383,729.455,684.484,232.984,459.864,698.914,950.785,216.14
Depreciation 1,297.391,230.121,133.63954.68903.70953.411,330.481,401.791,476.931,556.091,639.50
Accounts Receivable --42.3680.94-102.73-10.2070.21-290.91-80.32-84.62-89.16-93.94
Inventories --53.8593.17-99.01-166.67-260.75-37.38-120.88-127.36-134.18-141.37
Accounts Payable -14.70-50.899.6769.5412.9645.5928.0829.5831.1732.84
Capital Expenditure --27.71166.40-20.39164.91436.04-401.6839.1341.2343.4445.77
UFCF 3,533.694,010.504,472.794,395.604,690.746,896.354,879.085,727.686,034.686,358.146,698.93
WACC
PV UFCF 4,369.984,594.744,335.894,091.623,861.11
SUM PV UFCF 29,660.04

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 11.65
Free cash flow (t + 1) 6,966.89
Terminal Value 91,070.48
Present Value of Terminal Value 52,490.90

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 82,150.94
Net Debt 85.49
Equity Value 82,065.45
Shares Outstanding 970.00
Equity Value Per Share 84.60