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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


Texas Instruments Incorporated

Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN)

Technology

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 12,205.0013,044.7013,000.3513,370.8614,961.9915,784.9016,630.9817,522.4018,461.6019,451.1420,493.72
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 4,146.045,198.315,439.355,964.747,062.067,764.597,407.447,804.478,222.798,663.549,127.90
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 2,848.653,968.204,305.725,010.066,158.366,811.196,165.106,495.556,843.717,210.547,597.02
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 1,297.391,230.121,133.63954.68903.70953.411,242.331,308.921,379.081,453.001,530.88
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 3,828.713,541.643,217.593,489.794,469.154,233.514,480.384,720.534,973.555,240.145,521.01
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 1,203.411,245.771,164.831,267.561,277.751,207.551,470.181,548.981,632.011,719.481,811.64
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories 1,730.671,784.521,691.351,790.361,957.032,217.782,235.202,355.012,481.242,614.232,754.36
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 422.29437.00386.11395.78465.32478.28512.23539.69568.62599.10631.21
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -412.53-384.82-551.21-530.82-695.73-1,131.78-763.36-804.28-847.39-892.81-940.66
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 122
Diluted Shares Outstanding 990.00
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 16.54
After-tax Cost of Debt -0.78
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 11.92
Total Debt 4,319.00
Total Equity 120,780.00
Total Capital 125,099.00
Debt Weighting 3.45
Equity Weighting 96.55
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 12,205.0013,044.7013,000.3513,370.8614,961.9915,784.9016,630.9817,522.4018,461.6019,451.1420,493.72
EBITDA 4,146.045,198.315,439.355,964.747,062.067,764.597,407.447,804.478,222.798,663.549,127.90
EBIT 2,848.653,968.204,305.725,010.066,158.366,811.196,165.106,495.556,843.717,210.547,597.02
Tax Rate 21.50%27.18%29.17%27.08%39.44%16.54%26.82%26.82%26.82%26.82%26.82%
EBIAT 2,236.302,889.593,049.543,653.383,729.455,684.484,511.694,753.515,008.305,276.755,559.58
Depreciation 1,297.391,230.121,133.63954.68903.70953.411,242.331,308.921,379.081,453.001,530.88
Accounts Receivable --42.3680.94-102.73-10.2070.21-262.63-78.80-83.03-87.48-92.16
Inventories --53.8593.17-99.01-166.67-260.75-17.42-119.81-126.23-132.99-140.12
Accounts Payable -14.70-50.899.6769.5412.9633.9527.4628.9330.4832.11
Capital Expenditure --27.71166.40-20.39164.91436.04-368.4240.9243.1145.4247.85
UFCF 3,533.694,010.504,472.794,395.604,690.746,896.355,139.505,932.206,250.176,585.176,938.14
WACC
PV UFCF 4,603.224,758.814,490.714,237.723,998.98
SUM PV UFCF 30,091.68

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 11.65
Free cash flow (t + 1) 7,215.67
Terminal Value 94,322.42
Present Value of Terminal Value 54,365.24

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 84,456.91
Net Debt 85.49
Equity Value 84,371.42
Shares Outstanding 990.00
Equity Value Per Share 85.22

Results Unlevered DCF

Wacc / Long-term Growth -4 (%)-3 (%)-2 (%)-1 (%)0 (%)1 (%)2 (%)3 (%)4 (%)
13.65 (%) 61.41 Sell 64.21 Sell 67.50 Sell 71.41 Sell 76.13 Sell 81.94 Sell 89.26 Sell 98.79 Sell 111.70 Sell
13.15 (%) 59.63 Sell 62.19 Sell 65.17 Sell 68.68 Sell 72.89 Sell 78.02 Sell 84.40 Sell 92.57 Sell 103.40 Sell
12.65 (%) 58.00 Sell 60.33 Sell 63.04 Sell 66.21 Sell 69.98 Sell 74.53 Sell 80.13 Sell 87.20 Sell 96.39 Sell
12.15 (%) 56.49 Sell 58.63 Sell 61.10 Sell 63.97 Sell 67.36 Sell 71.42 Sell 76.36 Sell 82.52 Sell 90.40 Sell
11.65 (%) 55.09 Sell 57.05 Sell 59.31 Sell 61.92 Sell 64.98 Sell 68.62 Sell 73.01 Sell 78.41 Sell 85.22 Sell
11.15 (%) 53.79 Sell 55.60 Sell 57.67 Sell 60.05 Sell 62.82 Sell 66.09 Sell 70.01 Sell 74.78 Sell 80.72 Sell
10.65 (%) 52.58 Sell 54.25 Sell 56.15 Sell 58.33 Sell 60.85 Sell 63.80 Sell 67.31 Sell 71.54 Sell 76.76 Sell
10.15 (%) 51.46 Sell 53.00 Sell 54.75 Sell 56.75 Sell 59.04 Sell 61.72 Sell 64.88 Sell 68.65 Sell 73.26 Sell
9.65 (%) 50.41 Sell 51.84 Sell 53.46 Sell 55.29 Sell 57.39 Sell 59.82 Sell 62.67 Sell 66.06 Sell 70.14 Sell