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Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis Unlevered


UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (DE)

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (DE) (UNH)

Healthcare

Operating Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 122,489.00130,475.28157,105.29184,834.37201,155.25226,239.31256,057.65289,806.04328,002.48371,233.21420,161.74
Revenue (%)
EBITDA 10,950.5211,755.8212,662.6914,934.6217,198.7719,366.0821,841.7224,720.4627,978.6131,666.1935,839.80
EBITDA (%)
EBIT 9,578.6410,281.4510,965.9512,882.9614,945.8316,945.3218,999.4821,503.6124,337.7827,545.5031,176.00
EBIT (%)
Depreciation 1,371.881,474.371,696.742,051.662,252.942,420.762,842.243,216.853,640.834,120.694,663.80
Depreciation (%)

Balance Sheet Data

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Total Cash 11,967.1812,199.4415,914.7716,376.3318,586.7417,352.5523,480.4926,575.2130,077.8334,042.0938,528.83
Total Cash (%)
Account Receivables 7,055.379,746.5013,322.5315,655.4715,830.9218,257.5119,690.8322,286.0825,223.3928,547.8332,310.44
Account Receivables (%)
Inventories -----------
Inventories (%)
Accounts Payable 19,034.7921,280.5226,330.8529,758.3333,049.8136,605.5241,532.5547,006.5453,202.0060,214.0368,150.23
Accounts Payable (%)
Capital Expenditure -1,310.63-1,526.56-1,555.34-1,700.48-2,031.67-2,058.78-2,586.18-2,927.04-3,312.83-3,749.46-4,243.63
Capital Expenditure (%)

Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

Share price $ 277.93
Diluted Shares Outstanding 963.00
Cost of Debt
Tax Rate 22.91
After-tax Cost of Debt -1.10
Risk-Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Cost of Equity 8.44
Total Debt 34,581.00
Total Equity 267,646.59
Total Capital 302,227.59
Debt Weighting 11.44
Equity Weighting 88.56
Wacc

Build Up Free Cash

Year
A/P
2013
Actual
2014
Actual
2015
Actual
2016
Actual
2017
Actual
2018
Actual
2019
Projected
2020
Projected
2021
Projected
2022
Projected
2023
Projected
Revenue 122,489.00130,475.28157,105.29184,834.37201,155.25226,239.31256,057.65289,806.04328,002.48371,233.21420,161.74
EBITDA 10,950.5211,755.8212,662.6914,934.6217,198.7719,366.0821,841.7224,720.4627,978.6131,666.1935,839.80
EBIT 9,578.6410,281.4510,965.9512,882.9614,945.8316,945.3218,999.4821,503.6124,337.7827,545.5031,176.00
Tax Rate 36.56%41.81%42.88%40.57%23.26%22.91%34.66%34.66%34.66%34.66%34.66%
EBIAT 6,076.455,982.966,264.267,656.4511,469.5513,063.2012,413.4914,049.5915,901.3317,997.1220,369.14
Depreciation 1,371.881,474.371,696.742,051.662,252.942,420.762,842.243,216.853,640.834,120.694,663.80
Accounts Receivable --2,691.14-3,576.02-2,332.94-175.45-2,426.59-1,433.32-2,595.25-2,937.31-3,324.44-3,762.60
Inventories -----------
Accounts Payable -2,245.735,050.333,427.493,291.473,555.714,927.035,473.996,195.467,012.027,936.21
Capital Expenditure -215.9328.78145.13331.1927.11527.40340.86385.78436.63494.18
UFCF 7,448.327,227.859,464.0810,947.7917,169.7116,640.1919,276.8520,486.0423,186.0926,242.0229,700.72
WACC
PV UFCF 17,862.1617,589.5218,446.8319,345.9320,288.84
SUM PV UFCF 110,174.21

Terminal Value

Growth in perpetuity method:
Long-term growth rate
WACC (%) 7.92
Free cash flow (t + 1) 30,888.75
Terminal Value 787,978.31
Present Value of Terminal Value 538,275.46

Intrinsic Value

Enterprise Value 648,449.67
Net Debt 17,228.45
Equity Value 631,221.22
Shares Outstanding 963.00
Equity Value Per Share 655.47